The road to full time
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@richard-latimer what i meant was since arsenal havent had anything to play for they have upped their game, albeit against weak sides but they never looked like losing, newcastle who were playing well against other top teams you beat easily, west brom easy, chelsea battling for top 4 win. Thats what i was meaning just over exaggerated the point perhaps. Funny how before the newcastle game they probably had the idea they might battle for europe and were playing so bad, then a switch of now we are out and its just play for pride they are winning again. But im a spurs fan so lets stop talking about arsenal winning please
its just a consistent thing for most teams at this stage of season, playing with freedom and no pressure they can experiment and play fluid football -
@daniel-cooper i can easily say how to avoid etc it will resonate but might just be words youll forget about next time this happens. What i did and how i maaged to stop doing it. On your results sheets, add another column, if you pick a game not originally on your list put a NO next to it in that column. This could be a fomo moment, a red mist trade or a game thats on tv you fancied. Then end of month see how that compares top your original games. For me i did this for 5 months. Over that period my original trades always made more money and in some months i made a red on the NO list. So now i just literally dont do them because i know its a waste of time, effort and money. That is because as a gambler im god damn useless but as a trader im not too bad i guess
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@martin-walker its just the pressure at this stage of season. During the normal part teams play typically on the data, when your then add motivation and league table pressure we see the funny results. Newcastle looked great this end of season, playing agaisnt teams who need wins to get top 4 etc and causing them to flop under the pressure. Plenty of others doing the same. Arsenal playing like barca now they have nothing left to play for
But my data actually doesnt show any signs of this being because of late season i dont go based on results all i look for is measuring goals, last 2 years now i havent seen any dip. Because i only get on a game if a team must win then makes it consistent. Just about adapting to the current situation. For me its just been 2 bad trades. I can spot them a mile off. So really looking into it this is still a good period to be trading.
Not sure we're playing like Barca unless you mean the inconsistent crappy Barca we''ve seen most of this year. Even then it's a stretch haha!! Anyway, sorry for hijacking your point.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Last night i had 3 games in Italy on the list, all 3 had passed the scorelines i was needing for an entry, one scoring right at end of half. These things happen.
Always remind yourself when this happens that ok loads of games could have worked today and i couldnt get on any, but next week/weekend there is another full round of games so trying to find an extra trade to help make gains this week could spoil next weeks games just for a needless mental thought of i need to be making profits all the time.
I resonate with this so much! One of the harder things to learn, get to grips with and stick to! Takes time unless you have an strong innate self-discipline
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@james-rome saint maximin is the new messi? If he manages to stay fit, have almiron and wilson thats actually quite a good front 3
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@darri
@darri said in The road to full time:
@martin-walker its just the pressure at this stage of season. During the normal part teams play typically on the data, when your then add motivation and league table pressure we see the funny results. Newcastle looked great this end of season, playing agaisnt teams who need wins to get top 4 etc and causing them to flop under the pressure. Plenty of others doing the same. Arsenal playing like barca now they have nothing left to play for
But my data actually doesnt show any signs of this being because of late season, last 2 years now i havent seen any dip. Because i only get on a game if a team must win then makes it consistent. Just about adapting to the current situation. For me its just been 2 bad trades. I can spot them a mile off. So really looking into it this is still a good period to be trading.
as soon as we safe newcastle turn into peps 2009 barcelona team its great !
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@martin-walker its just the pressure at this stage of season. During the normal part teams play typically on the data, when your then add motivation and league table pressure we see the funny results. Newcastle looked great this end of season, playing agaisnt teams who need wins to get top 4 etc and causing them to flop under the pressure. Plenty of others doing the same. Arsenal playing like barca now they have nothing left to play for
But my data actually doesnt show any signs of this being because of late season i dont go based on results all i look for is measuring goals, last 2 years now i havent seen any dip. Because i only get on a game if a team must win then makes it consistent. Just about adapting to the current situation. For me its just been 2 bad trades. I can spot them a mile off. So really looking into it this is still a good period to be trading.
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Dodgy start for me aswell this month, combination of new leagues starting and old ones finishing. Less than a point down now so hopefully through the worst of it.
Im hoping ive gathered enough data to make better decisions next time leagues end and start.
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Having my first nets practise of the year tonight, unable to play the friendlies before season starts next weekend so gonna have a loosen up net session tonight, its this stage of the season i love, buying all the new gear makes you feel great, yet im a bowler so really the batting gear is extras
one of the most expensive hobbiesDespite it being a busy midweek not really seeing much good stuff for SHG in the winter leagues. Only managed a few this week. Plan is come summer when ill be playing on sats and the occasional sunday, that the ltds will help supplement that lack of trading. Time will tell tho. Hopefully now we have stopped the dodgy start this month we can get the variance curve back on side again. Remember slow and steady, sniping the good games, easy at this stage of season to say this team needs to win etc so ill just back a goal, that may well work but the prices on offer are reflective of that too and if your not using stats like you would normally its not in line with your consistency/risk. Last night i had 3 games in Italy on the list, all 3 had passed the scorelines i was needing for an entry, one scoring right at end of half. These things happen.
Always remind yourself when this happens that ok loads of games could have worked today and i couldnt get on any, but next week/weekend there is another full round of games so trying to find an extra trade to help make gains this week could spoil next weeks games just for a needless mental thought of i need to be making profits all the time. Look at my sheets. Its been 13 days now im still not in profits yet, im not panicking getting on any game i think might have a goal. Still sniping at the good ones. Discipline when you have a good strategy is more key than just having a good strategy. When and where to use it is vital to long term success.
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@darri keep em coming love it
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LTD for thursday:
Man utd vs liverpool
LTD to win 1pt
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Ok so while i nurse this hangover here are the LTD selections today:
sampdoria vs spezia 2-2 (-2.75)
guimaraes vs famalicao 1-2 (+0.98)Laying these to win 1pt
Ill update results after the last game and i have now got a sheet on my results sheet setup for them. Its customary that once you start trading something thats been working that the first ones lose so maybe wait till the first week is over
Total = -1.77
Cant say i never wanred that the unwritten rules of when you start putting money to something the trading gods decide to have a giggle. Below is what the run upto tonight was, so i suppose varaince and a loss had to come eventually
Yep last 23 trades have all won, making 22.54 points profit, sods law
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@keith-anderson im scottish mate ill celebrate anything i can
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Ok so while i nurse this hangover here are the LTD selections today:
sampdoria vs spezia
guimaraes vs famalicaoLaying these to win 1pt
Ill update results after the last game and i have now got a sheet on my results sheet setup for them. Its customary that once you start trading something thats been working that the first ones lose so maybe wait till the first week is overHungover? Celebrating Celtic getting 2nd place?
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Ok so while i nurse this hangover here are the LTD selections today:
sampdoria vs spezia
guimaraes vs famalicaoLaying these to win 1pt
Ill update results after the last game and i have now got a sheet on my results sheet setup for them. Its customary that once you start trading something thats been working that the first ones lose so maybe wait till the first week is over -
@daniel-cooper yes and no, this strategy still doesnt fully know the leagues which will be profitable, of course through testing iv narrowed them down but until i get a good sample of the remaining leagues i wont be removing them. However the filters iv got for it now are working even withou the motivation angle and have remained consistent throughout. Just did a final tweak to it on the stats software part of it and now happy to start posting. I have the sheets setup so people can track along the way. Been wanting a LTD set and forget for a while, stuarts thread just made me act to re look at my own one. My one is stats and odds based. Any future tweaks will only be in what leagues are needed, so its safe to start posting/putting money into.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Ill start posting my LTDs on here from tomorrow onwards. Start them on here anyway, leaving just my inplays on the football thread. Really happy with them. Probably one of the first pure pre match set and forgets that iv managed to make on par with my main trading. Iv found plenty good ones before but not reaching my own current stuff. This one seems to be ok. Therefore it becomes part of the portfolio. That means ill now be doing SHGs and LTD going forward. Remember what my original aim was from the start of this new chapter? Efficiency and these two will give me just that. Less screen time and less opinion bias.
If there are morning games ill post night before but should have them posted around 9/10 am most days. Follow them if you like but maybe just wait a month or 2 until you see consistent green to build confidence. I always think set and forgets sounds more risky than they are.
Excited to see! You’ve been tracking and testing these for a good few months now haven’t you?
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Ill start posting my LTDs on here from tomorrow onwards. Start them on here anyway, leaving just my inplays on the football thread. Really happy with them. Probably one of the first pure pre match set and forgets that iv managed to make on par with my main trading. Iv found plenty good ones before but not reaching my own current stuff. This one seems to be ok. Therefore it becomes part of the portfolio. That means ill now be doing SHGs and LTD going forward. Remember what my original aim was from the start of this new chapter? Efficiency and these two will give me just that. Less screen time and less opinion bias.
If there are morning games ill post night before but should have them posted around 9/10 am most days. Follow them if you like but maybe just wait a month or 2 until you see consistent green to build confidence. I always think set and forgets sounds more risky than they are.
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really interesting look at odds over on the football thread. What i always think about is what i used to be like. When i first started to see good results i too was sceptical of others strategies and trades and thought no way is that profitable with those odds. Because those odds are what iv been warned against. Thing is we get given advice and i too give this advice to stick to odds that are deemed safe. When your a beginner and your trying to find your feet getting on odds that will require a good strike rate is quite demanding and really unrealistic. Its when you develop and have that balance of more market knowledge or more info in what makes a certain event more likely that we can really start to experiment.
If you look at the example i gave earlier:
Lets take an example. We have a SHG strategy. We are debating between two types of entries. When odds are 1.25 to back so 80% chance, we have a strike rate of 85%. When 2.0 we have 52% strike rate.1.25: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = +5.8 points/% of bank
2.0: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = + 2.96 points/% of bankNow obviously getting a 80% strike rate when your first starting is gonna be difficult. You dont really know what factors or what filter setting really improve a chance of a goal. Thats why i always advice toying with these more safer odds. The thing is also which is quite hidden until you test but typically if your waiting for those higher odds then your also not trading in as much volume. Therefore looking for premium trades. But that doesnt mean that waiting for 1.25/1.3 in the SHGs isnt also premium for that strategies time of entry. Always be flexible with your thinking. If trading was just do this and make money we wouldnt have losers and premium charge would be alot higher than it currently is
Dont be robotic with your creativity. remember try change your idea of odds into %s and then make sure your %s are better for the strike rate your needing to profit. The greater the gap between what an events % chance of happening is compared to markets implied % the better your edge. TEST, TEST, TEST! Dont just go off what othes have said test it, i always find opinions rule too much but data well it doesnt have one, it tells you hard facts.
