John’s Horse Trading Resources
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A lot of stuff seems to go missing in the HRT, especially now it has livened up. I will post anything useful here. Links/files etc.
I will post the links etc in the first comment(this one. They will then be referenced in the relevant comment if applicable. Feel free to question away.
GENERAL RESOURCES
This calculation will work out your drawdown.
=MIN((Y2-MAX($Y$2:Y2))/MAX($Y$2:Y2),0)
You need to apply it to your running total column as I have done in the example below. Make your first row your starting bank. This then needs to be applied to the whole column.
This calculation will then show you your highest bank drawdown. It needs to be applied to the relevant column.
=MIN(AH:AH).
It will then give you a largest drawdown figure like this.
Courtesy of Martin Futter
Odds Probability Table to calculate odds against strike rate
https://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.html
Courtesy of Matt Wood
If anyone uses google sheets and you have your filter S/R, then in the cell next to it put this:
=1/(E16/100)/100 (e16 being the cell with the % S/R)
Should auto calculate the odds required (not counting for commission)
Courtesy of Richard Latimer
Useful Trading Links
www.bettingtools.co.uk
www.aceodds.comEstimate Losing Runs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/HORSE SPECIFIC RESOURCES
Horse Software Tips
Always run two versions of your strategy. One called results with all your filters and one called qualifiers with variables like number of runners removed. You can then filter these manually or on your bot as they change a lot.The Original Maria Staking Thread from 2005.
Essential Horse Trading Links.
https://www.cheltenhambettingoffers.com/articles/glossary/
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing (Information on the days racing and past results)
https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/ (Going and non runners for the day)
Important Definitions for Inrunning trading
Dream maker 62’s LTB
My DOB/TROB/WIN rules
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@John-Folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
Same. I’m only going more because of March.
Another 3 points on the dobs/trobs today
These all seem to be doing very well good work mate
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@John-Folan Ive got a H pace one too
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Another ridiculous 6 point day on the dobs and trobs. I’m hoping these will only get better as we move further away from Covid and the form becomes even more reliable. We will see.
The new Dreammaker Bot provided 3 points today. Again same premise. I’ve gone a different route to Tony as I use the H pace letter in the last 2 races. Everything else is similar and there’s probably nothing in it. A slow horse is a slow horse. I’ll shove the bot and software file up once I’m happy as I know these work.
Now it’s just a matter of compounding
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
Same. I’m only going more because of March.
Another 3 points on the dobs/trobs today
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@John-Folan Definitely be interested to see how that bot pans out. Whats annoying me at the moment in the live trading is....
- Im not getting my pergola built!!
- Some of the selections Ive made have been true to their form and held up...they can be last, with 4 lengths to the next horse....and the bloody price will shorten!(which would certainly not work with your bot or mine) Maybe this occurs in the longer races? Probable, Ill have to take more notice. Or maybe I need to strengthen my selections?
Its just so annoying when a horse does everything you want it to do and the odds shorten or just lay dormant! Im not that interested in horse racing that I can watch a 3 mile plus race to the end
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@John-Folan how long do you tend to give forward testing before going live stakes? I'm currently using 3+ months
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan dead even this week for me, one of my strategies accounts for 20pts loss though so kind of pleased that the others have all profited. Weird how you can be pleased about such things!
It really is. I’ve got two more that are probably ready to go. Just decided to give them another month of testing before posting on here.
The Dreammaker bot is interesting. I’ve never thought of doing it like this before. You don’t need a stop loss just a set trade out point. The horses still aren’t fancied to win at that point even if they have run well so you don’t get much of a steam on any losses so they should be minimal. Amazing what a little chat on here can do. Thanking @Tony-Hastie for getting me going on the bot idea again.
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@John-Folan dead even this week for me, one of my strategies accounts for 20pts loss though so kind of pleased that the others have all profited. Weird how you can be pleased about such things!
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Bots going ok. Got it trading out between 1-2 minutes regardless. Entering closer to the race than recommended but that me anyway. Interesting watching what happens inrunning. Pretty stable the first half of the race.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Funnily enough, last night I watched a video of Peter Webb creating a basic L2B bot. It enters the market 10 seconds after the off to avoid the mayhem that hits the odds...and goes for 10 ticks profit
Im testing that out(thanks american racing!), it’s going pretty well so far...
This seems alright as well. I’m playing with the price being used back/lay/mid/actual/opposite. Looks ok.
6 points from dobs and trobs today too!
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@John-Folan Funnily enough, last night I watched a video of Peter Webb creating a basic L2B bot. It enters the market 10 seconds after the off to avoid the mayhem that hits the odds...and goes for 10 ticks profit
Im testing that out(thanks american racing!), its going pretty well so far...
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan really interesting stuff, how come it can't be tested on the software?
Software asks for exit point of profit/ticks or points. I’ve asked Adam to look at just a time exit point.
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@John-Folan really interesting stuff, how come it can't be tested on the software?
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I’m trying something with the LTB’s.
I’m trading out at a certain time after the start no matter what. Close enough to the start that price movements shouldn’t be crazy but far enough that a drift will have happened. Will trial different times and see where it goes.
Can’t really test that in the software as you need a trade out target. So a good old fashioned manual test and tweaking of the bot will be happening. I’ll let you know how it goes.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
Also, it really does help if you're watching the right horse
Glad it’s not just me that’s done that
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Also, it really does help if you're watching the right horse
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@Joseph-Henderson Not really, it depends on the horses run. I watch the race and play it by ear. If it has a good start in a short race(under 1m) I’ll usually get out pretty quickly though. @John-Folan is much more experienced and in a better position advise really, Ive been doing it 2 weeks
Depends on what’s happening. I will bail for a loss or small profit if horse looks like it’s going for it. Better safe than sorry and always another race
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@Joseph-Henderson Not really, it depends on the horses run. I watch the race and play it by ear. If it has a good start in a short race(under 1m) Ill usually get out pretty quickly though. @John-Folan is much more experienced and in a better position advise really, Ive been doing it 2 weeks
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@Tony-Hastie thanks! Might give it a go! Do you have a set exit point if the trade is going badly?