Tennis section of software
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Stupid question #47
Is there a section on the forum or site which explains the data/layout of the tennis section of the software. Looking at Martin's lay the 1st set winner filter and just trying to make sense of it
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis section of software:
@kevin-pepper its just uploading buddy be about an hour
Cheers
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@kevin-pepper its just uploading buddy be about an hour
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@kevin-pepper I’ll get Adam onto it buddy
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Hi
Is the stats software working? I get a message saying there are no upcoming matches but plenty showing on Betfair.
Thanks
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@ryan-carruthers, @james-menhenitt
It’s a good strategy, with Madrid starting on Thursday, I am going to look at using exclusively in the first set.
I’ve found that it works better with players of comparable standard as playing in similar tournaments I.e top 100 or so otherwise the stats throw up some strange expected outcomes at times which I assume is due to strong results in lower level tournaments.
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@james-menhenitt A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks Ryan - fell at the first hurdle, couldn't find it! I searched your profile posts for "tennis"... must have missed it altogether.
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@james-menhenitt if you get stuck with the projected hold strat let me know buddy.
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@chris-osborne Thanks I'll check that out!
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@james-menhenitt I only really use the Projected Hold, BPS and BPC stats on there.
If you scroll back on the tennis thread, a few weeks, Ryan posted a strategy around Projected Holds which is pretty good.
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@chris-osborne
Thanks Chris. Looking at the Forecast stats, Are the Save and Conversion rows ratios? Not sure how they are calculated/use them...
Projected Hold, BPS and BPC look like percentages, so that's fine, but the TieBreak rows, again, not sure what the x2 and the (s) and (r) mean.
I'll try and work them out
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Not that I've found
Doesn't take too long to get your way round it, the one thing to bare in mind is that if creating a filter, the stats will only give you the outcome of one of the players not both although there are some which give an average return of both players.
For Martin's LAy the 1st set winner, the only selection is the likelihood of a three set match is 40% or above.
Instead of running a filter, I find its best to interogate the filters themselves. Entries I look for are Service stats. break of serve stats and also. Won 1st Set, Lost 2nd or Lost 1st Set Won 2nd.
An area @Ryan-Carruthers has pointed out recently which is becoming increasingly useful to me is the Forecast section.
