The road to full time
-
Going to throw this out there for anyone interested. This weeks Joe Rogan podcast with Dave Smith is well worth anyone’s time. 3 and a half hours in typical Rogan fashion but well worth the time.
-
@darri Sounds about right for weather in our lovely UK
Thanks for your reply, really appreciated. Im only really looking to have long term holds as a place to keep cash rather than a bank etc. I would never touch a CFD generally as I dont know enough about what I would be doing there. I was leaning towards Trading212 so this is very helpful, the pie function does seem a really good idea too
Lets hope we all get some sun back now we can go out again
-
@matt-wood not off topic at all mate, feel free to ask away. We just had the easing of lockdown with pubs/ retail etc on monday, its been sunburn weather all month and on monday day of openings its been pouring of rain everyday :scotland: hopefully eases soon cricket season starts next week.
In terms of my investing its mainly been crypto currencies. Iv used coinbase every time for it. I have a trading 212 account took me 2 months of waiting. For me it was a god send because you can buy parts of shares by just buying shares based on monetary value. So £10 worth of Apple for example. It has everything i need. Freetrade is quite basic but if you already know what your wanting to invest in and what price then its fine. Both are covered well, but they just have the big companies to invest in really unlike hargreaves lansdown etc. Trading 212 is the preferred choice probably highlighted by the waiting list. The pie function trading 212 has allows you to group certain companies like an index fund, this allows you to say right ill choose amazon, nike, apple, facebook etc all into one group and you can just keep buying £10 worth which is then distributed among them. You can set what % of the pie you allocate to each company. They also have the s&p 500 type index fund trading options too. Just avoid the CFDs from these apps, its just pure gambling.
Id just get trading 212 and accept the wait, but i know people like etoro and freetrade. These are the robinhood (usa) equivalents as they allow buying part of shares which if your not keen early on to invest large sums makes sense. Obviously the big dogs of vanguard and hargreaves lansdown are an option but for me i dont need them these do the job. Just make sure you dont get caught up in the ease of use with these apps, can become like day trading. All i do is set it up and let it run. I dont keep checking. However most of my investing activity in the last year or so has been crypto which i dont use any of the above for (coinbase) its a pain in the ass for tax. But trading 212-freetrade-etoro i believe all have the isa account etc to help with the tax burdens.
Trading 212 for me
-
Morning Darri, hope all is good up there north of the border
Slightly off topic for your blog, but a little while back you mentioned other streams of income and said you invest in some things. I was just wondering what investment platform you use to do this as I am having difficulty choosing one and looking to get trusted opinions on various offerings. Currently looking at freetrade and trading212 (waiting list for this one though). Any experience you have of these or others would be greatly appreciated
-
@james-woodroffe its one of those stages of the season to be very cautious. The data we have gone with throughout the season starts to turn a bit random here. Thats because teams with nothing to play for start to rotate their lineups, so some of the squad players can get some game time. They make tactical tweaks trying things out for next season. Its also a stage when we see random results. So for example no one is predicting burnley win 0-4 against wolves. But wolves nothing to play for and burnley need a win to get out of the relegation race. Newcastle have pulled off some great results trying to avoid relegation. In other cases your seeing sheff utd with nothing to play for beating brighton. Liverpool and chelsea not winning against the lower ranked teams same with celtic and rangers, it happens everywhere at this stage of season.
Its stages like this when pressure is being added and thats affecting data sets. Because some teams are thriving under it, others arent. Its also bringing random results because those teams are now playing without risk and have freedom to play the way they want. Its just a very random stage and selection must be precise. Lets look at the Leeds vs United game. Both teams mathematically still with things to play for, but man utd having eye on thursday resting pogba and only late on bringing on pogba and cavani. If this was a must win game they would have been on much earlier. In this game you really wanted man united to really be wanting a win throwing everything at it and then leeds being a danger on the break or vice versa. Without the motivation both teams staggered in the game. The inplay stats flatter it, there was only really 2 chances in the match. Same with celtic and rangers, what motivation do they actually have now against st johnstone and aberdeen? None.
For those reading just make sure that a team is fully needing a win at this stage of season. Yes big teams still win and there will still be plenty of goals, but its upto us as traders to be limiting the risk of randomness and motivation is a huge part of that. There is already a huge amount of new risk attached we havent seen before with the effects covid are having on results. Thats why im hardly trading the football even tho i had a fairly hefty list of games this weekend from filters etc. Its one of those times as a trader you have to accept. So if your testing something or trying a new strategy dont rely on its data too much. This is a strange period, maybe try to focus testing or trading on the summer leagues now instead. It again is due to covid, is that affecting your results etc, for example those relying on away teams right now are doing well because no fans is not such a factor anymore for them and means home advantage isnt as strong. That will change when fans are back. Its just a very weird time for football, so when trading it dont add more risk by selecting games with teams not needing a win. I know no team plays to lose but those teams might not go for that 90th min winner you need without motivation. This is very much a time when inplay trading and match selection is key.
-
@darri made that mistake myself today a couple of times re getting involved in matches where there was nothing really on the table. Unsurprisingly they were not profitable trades. I wonder why
Super overs are lovely aren’t they. For a 160 chase in Chennai it was a fascinating match. Williamson just showing all his class. -
IPL update:
RCB vs CSK: +1.59 points/% of bank
This pretty much was the perfect game for my way of trading t20. CSK with a very defendable total (191) and the markets fearful of RCB. I backed CSK at 1.65 with half my full stake and would reassess to see when to use the other half. RCB got off to a great start with paddikal. But just as he was getting going wickets started to tumble. The only reason i didnt enter my other half stake was purely because maxwell and de villiers are in some great touch. Once they left the markets were too short and i just let my first trade run for a really easy profit.
Super over in the other match
Managed to get on a couple of set and forget trades this weekend but only one inplay which is posted for everyone on the football thread hope some got on. Hopefully manage to get a bit more out of football this week coming with champs league and europa. Please be careful with this late season stuff, seen a few trades posted with teams having nothing to play for. Yes goals still happen but as traders we have to be risk averse and be able to have confidence in a trade. Try pick teams with things still to play for. Also applies to those who are testing strats too, dont get up/down based on testing results at this stage, can be a bit random.
-
Added a sheet to my results page, it shows the current ongoing outrights we have active it also shows the results of those. This allows me since ill be upping stakes before they are settled to keep my main sheets p/l in line with the bank at that time, this is on the 'other sheet'. Meaning that this outrights sheet will show the points won and lost in respect to what it was when we placed it. Just shows a bit of transparency and keeps it easy to find.
2 new ones being added today. Both european comps in use.
Champs league winner: PSG @4.2 for 1 point. Then if city progress back them with 2 points. I expect city will be around 1.6-1.8 should they reach the final. For me these 2 teams are the stronger. I know chelsea won in the fa cup against city but thats not peps mandate. Citys desire is champs league. So obviously straight away you can see iv not backed city here tho. City are technically the trade here but with this price on psg if they progress id expect them to be around 2.2-2.3 so id then cash out and have a free bet position on psg in the final. If man city progress back them with 2 points if they are above 1.60. I just feel psg are the team to beat city and hence why not putting city straight away. This is basically a trade within a trade.
Europa league winner: Man utd @2.18 for 2 points. Ideally i wanted to do something similar here, but roma are having a rather poor season. The roma vs ajax legs were a poor watch. Also with man utd id expect that their price will be much lower than what man city would be in their final. In fact id expect united to be around 1.5 for the final. Also having a free bet on roma would be pointless i feel arsenal or united have them here. Roma away from home have been dire, relying too much on home games. With united pretty much only focussing on europa now too makes this a more safer play.
Posted these on the sheets too so i can be held accountable also just makes these post worthwhile because they will go missing below after a month or so of posts in between them.
-
@darri It’s a great post. I’ve been thinking more about this since I came back from a few weeks off and it’s more relevant to me than ever. I think every trader will realise it at some point in their journey....the sooner that is the better! It feels too specific at times to be looking at a goal within a 20 minute time frame in 3 or 4 games out of a possible 100+ games that day but it’s by specialising in that rather niche trade that a trader can improve. Like you said it feels counter intuitive but it’s absolutely important
-
This topic has come up again in recent convos, mastering one strategy. I want to sort of detail why i think this counter intuitive way of thinking actually is really good way to learn and builds a solid base. What im getting at here is most people when they start are kids in candy shops. For me that was trading football, cricket and horses. Dabbling in ltds, B2l, Dobbing etc. I never once got to a stage in any of those that i fully gained confidence. Despite being in modest profit. I got blinded by that. Then someone told me choose one of those and choose an area within that sport to specialise in. I went away for a year and worked solely on finding out how to trade late goal in football. I know now how to trade that inside out. That is my area of expertise. This then gave me a solid base on which i could then go away and test other things/sports.
By removing all other noise and focus from the others i was able to optimise my strategy. I went from making around 4-5 points a month towards making at minimum 15 points from one strategy. You see the strategies i was trading were profitable and i didnt want to let that go. The counter intuitive thought of less would = more did not match up in my mind. It did tho. Take a look around this forum. Look at each of the main threads. In there the most followed/listened to traders are the ones who have specialised in those areas, they havent got there from trading every sport they watch/like they got there from improving their trading in their area. Lets take a real world example, nike are a great example here. They started with trainers. Became experts in that field, then from that base they could then start to test the idea of adding more. Yet when it comes to trading and money people think this doesnt apply and that they can straight away be great at all sports?! It absolutely does not work that way. The rushing of building banks leads to people trying to trade multiple sports without first having that solid base strategy. Now i can only talk about my own experience but thats why i say look around, the best traders around are experts in mainly one sport from the start and then they add.
FOMO has many forms. It can come with trades, sports, money etc. I understand it can come across like a light statement for a 28yr old to be telling you not to rush this and take your time. But actually my advice is never to do with that. It always been about how i got to this stage. What tricks and tips have i learnt along the way. The fact is less is more is often misunderstood and can come in handy in a few forms. In terms of applying that to sports or multiple strategies. It simply means focussing on less will give you a better understanding of that strategy and its strengths and weaknesses. This will then result i faster progress as you learn it faster and means you can then start to add from a solid base. I know people wont do this and truly did take a leap of faith with listening to that advice. But if no one experiences that thing then we never come to understand how well it works. I owe that person a pint or 2
Knowing one strategy inside out also means i can understand why a trade lost, was it me, luck, variance etc. Thats massively improves your knowledge as a trader and helps mentally. Very difficult to know that if your trying to trade from 3/4/5 strats at a time from the start.Sometimes im the devil to all this because im showing you my results from several strategies. But that doesnt mean that i just from day one went ill trade these and ill try master them all at a time. No i started with lates, then added. Please stop thinking this is a get rich quick thing. Rushing doesnt help anyone. It halts progress because your greed settles in, that then bleeds into trades and starts a vicious long term cycle, i know fully how this goes btw. Small but consistent, leads to adding in a better direction. Its helps more mentally too. Thats another topic we all know about but you can see its just a better process of going about trading. It leads to so many better approaches later down the line. I know its hard to understand trying to think about long term we kind of want that money now. But slow and steady and i promise youll be surprised how much faster your bank grows. At the start of this year i reached the £20k mark before investing it elsewhere. Iv only been trading for less than 3 years. It is fully possible to reach good levels quick with smart decisions.
-
Trading Update:
Thats it been 1 month now of trading since we started tracking these. Thought id do a small update nothing fancy just to keep this updated.
Cricket: +43.01 points/% of bank
Firstly please understand that this is only due to the fact ipl is on. Normally we are treated to around 1/2 games a week during normal periods. Currently we have at least 1 game every day sometimes 2. This will be the same for most of may also. Last ipl i was honing my strategy, improving on previous mistakes and seeing if i could tackle handling trading 2 sports. The BBL was the next step in actually moving from smaller stakes to main stakes. That transition was smooth and built huge confidence that i wasnt just lucky with previous cricket trades. Iv worked hard on t20s in terms of time and effort. Now i feel im reaping those rewards. Like i say tho dont expect this every month, the quiet periods will come with t20 trading.
Football: +32.6 points/% of bank
This is a content amount. For just 1 months worth of trades ill take this. Because of the cricket iv been unable to focus all attention on inplays and have relied more on set and forgets. Once the cricket is much calmer ill be back to inplay trading more. This actually works out well seasonality wise. With ipl coming during the late season when not every game would qualify (i avoid all games with no motivation in league)this makes it a smoother process for my bank. Normally i see a very moderate rise in bank at this stage. I do however feel iv over traded at times and iv been quite vocal about the amount of missed chances etc which i feel is down to no fans, int breaks and covid/fitness. Normally at this stage of season is when goals come freely as teams loosen up. So to be in profit is always a nice situation to be at when you are seeing negative trends in the markets.
Overall a really good stage we have turned the bank from £1k into £1,746 in 1 month. Very close to a safer upping of stakes. What ill probably do is assess end of this month, looking at the strategies to make sure they arent in some sort of massive good cycle of variance. I like upping stakes when things are fairly neutral and the strategies are not overperforming which flatters the bank. This way as i up i should see an easier transition. Only doing that at this level of bank, once we hit bigger targets ill slow down this process alot when im withdrawing money. Aiming to start doing that around the £5k mark again. Having taken the old trading bank out and the old profits being put to use with investing, trading for me is now a bigger long term plan rather than an income. But after £5k thats when i plan to start treating this as a side income again/was a main before. Ill explain all that when it comes, no point babbling on too much as usual
-
IPL update
RR vs RCB: +1.11 points/% of bank
Another winner! With RR scrambling to a 177 total felt it was a below par score. I think on this pitch you really need 190 to be able to defend it. RCB being 1.51 at the break i backed with half my stake. The expectation was to be in now and reassess after 10 overs if i should enter the other half stake. That wasnt needed. RCB raced away to the highest chasers 10 over mark score. From there i just removed liability and went and made dinner. Great little trade and keeps this bank ticking along and really putting me in a great position going into the rest of ipl.
-
@darri mate the game in Chennai today was awful. Punjab are poor but 120. The dew at night makes a difference but I’ll be glad when they move on.
-
IPL update
CSK vs KKR: +2.35 points/% of bank
This has been some run with these cricket trades. Last ipl was all about improving my strategy, this ipl its just reaping those rewards. CSK on the 15 over mark sitting on just shy of 150. With FAF and ALI both in and with faf set i expected they would at least get to around 200. With them at 1.48 to back this kind of setup a free trade situation. I knew that if they scored 200 that would come in and id play around in the powerplay to get out with a decent position on both sides. If they collapsed i knew that at some stage given the fact they would at least get 190 that id be able to trade out for close to same price meaning a free bet and i wouldnt lose here. They scored 220! Meaning i was in the best position. Rarely do teams chase anything over 190 and even less so with anything over 200. We often remember the ones that do chase the big totals but they are rare. So sitting with 1.48 i knew i had the value price to be able to sit around. KKR collapsed within 6 overs, yes russell and cummins put in an unreal effort but emphasis on the unreal it not common to be 31-5 and still make 200. So in the end they never chased it and easy win. Small sweat on when curran went for about 4 6s but thats cricket. Adds to the mounting IPL profits and this strategy keeps progressing. Yes it misses other opportunities but i dont care about them only if it fits my model, because my model is how i know its value or not.
Also chennai is becoming boring as a fan to watch now. Everyone prefers these run chases, shame chennai today was so poorly contested. I think i prefer night time chennai games when the other variables come into play.
-
Just to show you what i mean, yesterday DC got MI out for 137, so your trying to tell me that 17 runs more = 13% more chance of defending that total? No! Thats why yesterdays game presented value and thats why todays doesnt. Yesterday had more variables on the side of the chasing team and todays there isnt any of those. Just thought this was a good example of what i was meaning.
-
Chelsea dropping points against brighton was not even part of the plan last night for our outrights
great result, now need liverpool, west ham and leicester to go nab the required points to steal top 4 from them. If you dont fancy the trade nows a good time to get out as they have just gone above our entry price meaning you can get out for free here. Nothing has changed in my eyes only just got better. -
@jonathan-busch Almost, no DC were the 1.28 favs but based on the situation they should have been below 1.2. The markets just dont go below that because of the pitch history and the fact MI are the favs for every single match. So despite it appearing to be quite short odds actually it was far bigger odds than it should have been. In fact at half way point they were 1.26 and went upto 1.3 the over after. Now yes it did go to the last over but they did it comfortably with 6 wickets remaining. Market bias to the pitch and teams was over bias in my opinion based on the prices they were giving. The dew element i actually missed out as well from the last post. It played a part. Once the ball becomes soaked through it becomes very hard for spinners and seamers to be able to control the ball. Meaning they arent fully in control of their bowling accuracy. Since this was also at chennai means less spin too as you need grip to be able to spin the ball. Further to this the pitch then changes. Dew factor typically means the ball skids on the wicket. So normally at chennai the ball is holding up/coming onto the batsmen slowly. Thats because of the wicket holding up the ball in the bounce. Meaning its hard for batsmen to time the ball as it coming onto them slower than they expect. But now the dew is here its skidding on to them quicker meaning they can time it better.
Just all these variables going against any sort of price for that total. In fact i didnt check what the prices where near the end but im assuming you could have got even better pricing. So basically market likes MI too much and can only judge pitch on previous efforts. They basically didnt adapt fast enough and offered good prices on DC from ball one.
-
@darri
Hey Darri, just trying to unpack this message, I was unable to follow the market on this game.
MI got the lowest total in Chennai and were up against it to defend this total, but were still favorites at 1:28/1.29? Or were DC at 1.28/1.29? At what stage of the innings was this (change of innings)?
-
Finally aswell its over in a flash, ESL will not happen
said it from as soon as i heard it, its just a bluff. The timing before a uefa announcement of change, 2 of those teams still in champs league doesnt make sense for it to be anything other than a negotiation tool. The secrecy behind it, they knew we wouldnt like it and knew the leagues would also hate it. Yet these idiots are now losing their jobs, which either means scapegoats or actually bought into the idea working. We wont see punishment because legally it was probably just a statement rather than action. We have only heard from media that a contract was signed. Looking forward to hearing the apologies. The fake oh we didnt realise the response, if they wanted to revolutionise european football and take on uefa they could have asked us first and had fan backing. They knew fans, leagues and governments wouldnt like it thats why it was kept a secret.The timing, the secrecy and the biggest bluff in football has all backfired on the biggest clubs. Thing is will they even be punished for this, probably not because they are the super 12 they provide the money, thats the whole reason they rebelled. Worst football business decision for a while. If it was a bluff they clearly didnt think it through, and if it was actually a proper concept that everyone liked then why all the secrecy. Thats why iv said its a bluff from day one and i even said city would be the first to come back from it. Get rid of these individuals no good for the game and sold their clubs souls for a quick buck. Those guys who have been sacked will be paid well for leaving. Woodward probably been wanting out a while. Im a celtic fan so this had nothing to do with me only really a spurs fan from choice and going to the 9-1 game for my 16th birthday. But it just goes to show that doesnt matter who you support the big dogs only care about where the money is. Lets never forget that when they come after our players.
This cant be deemed criminal or corrupt because it never happened and there is no law in place right now to stop this. These guys saw a window in the rules and tried to exploit it either to pose as a bluff or to actually go through with it. They were gonna run this themselves and we say fifa is corrupt, imagine how this would go. Get them out and stamp down on this fit and proper ownership. The government threatened today saying about work permits and things they could do to affect them, why arent they getting involved now to prevent this ever happening in future. This got laughed away before. It will come around again and this time they will know what things we didnt like and come back with a new improved concept. Its time to get things in place to stop money being the only thought process for clubs. Football is about fans and we allow them to make money from us because we buy into the clubs. They forgot about us for a second and come running back saying sorry, they tried to appeal this to tourist fans but thats not gonna work, its the core fans and core customers than sustain businesses. Honestly worst football business decision iv seen.
It united such passion and action imagine we focused just half of that effort from the last 3 days into the important issues in life. Instead it took some corrupt money hungry football owners to unite everyone. Did we really make a difference to this ending we wont know, they will say that but who knows with uefa and fifa, maybe a backdoor payday for those clubs awaits down the line.
-
IPL update
MI vs DC: +1.37 points/% of bank
Just a small update here but more just for pointing out something. MI getting the lowest total in chennai so far. Now if this wasnt MI and this score was instead on DC we would be looking at a price of around 1.20 or less. Because its MI we get 1.28/1.29, even when they started to score runs this price hovered around 1.26, there is no way it should have been that price. The fact is the markets bias towards both mumbai and the pitch history failed here. Before i was saying how they hadnt factored in price towards this pitch, now they have im now taking advantage of that because they have now massively overpriced some things now. Thats the beauty of cricket and its variables for trading. The markets can only go on trends and slightly adjust inplay. This is why im saying master one thing at a time, how else would you spot this if your also learning to trade other strategies/sports. This is how you get to spot value. You might laugh and go value at that price, but if i said i think something has a 52% and you were backing evens that doesnt mean its better than something that has a 90% at 1.28. Price is only relevant to your strategy and the actual matches chance of that event happening.
