The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@darri
As you say, it depends on what you are doing. The more restrictive your criteria, probably 500 is enough. If, however, you are doing a blanket SHG on, say, strong home favourites, you'll need 1,000 or so.
The more loose your criteria are, the more likely variance there will be as you haven't controlled for a variety of factors. -
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning everyone, general question for all.
Assuming everything goes to plan and its on track to be profitable, how many games would people consider tracking before attempting a minimum stakes test run?
How many games for the min stakes test run?
Depends on the strategy in my opinion. Some strategies will have much less selections and be very highly selective. For me i normally do similar to alan here. If i can get a test sample of 100 within 3-4 months id do that record everything you need. Then tweak. Do another solid months worth. That will also then shows you what a typical month looks like. What i mean by that is it will show you how many trades youll be likely to be in on and if thats manageable for both you and the bank. If both the testing and tweaking stage is good roughly around 100/200 trades is all i use before min staking, you learn most when actually active. See how it actually feels and if you can manage each trade well when active. Dont want it to be too time consuming. Then try get it to 300-400 then id be making a decision. I dont think 1000 is needed before trading if your being selective. I dont think iv even traded 1000 games of late goals in trading within a year, not sure i could test for a year personally without getting anything, too impatient. But 1000 will most likely give you the best picture if its good long term. For me its 100 first test, tweak, another 100 see how good the tweak is, then min stakes 100, is it manageable and efficient for time/pressure, then trade full stakes 100, then if profitable continue. will be personal choice as usual with trading on how risk averse you want to be when testing.
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As the pre match fav was the home team will be looking to enter the o2.5 goal market in around 10/15mins time with the following trade
If score is still 0-1
20% stake on o2.5 goals at circa 30mins
20% plus 50pts
20% plus 50pts
20% plus 1 whole pt
20% plus 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like
20% @ 1.65
20% @ 2.16
20% @ 2.66
20% @ 3.66
20% @ 4.66Take green if matched or red on 75/80mins
Matched with starting stake of 1.6
Cashed out o2.5 goals after 5mins but will look to reinvest all green on 80mins for late goal or scratch
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Will be looking to trade Split Stake o1.5 in Aussie match although don't see this game going BTTS, I prefer to see this with unfiltered games but then this is the A League lol
Will back o1.5 goals market
20% on 10mins
20% plus .20pts
20% plus 0.20pts
20% @ 2.9ish
20% @ 3.9ishOnly small in-play stakes for me on this one... Maximum stake 0.2pts £20 (ie 4 x's £4)
Typical staking might look like
20% @ 1.45 on 10mins
20% @ 1.65
20% @ 1.85
20% @ 2.9ish
20% @ 3.9ishUnbelievable... Just got matched with 1st stake at 1.4 and then 1-0... Will let it run
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Will be looking to trade Split Stake o1.5 in Aussie match although don't see this game going BTTS, I prefer to see this with unfiltered games but then this is the A League lol
Will back o1.5 goals market
20% on 10mins
20% plus .20pts
20% plus 0.20pts
20% @ 2.9ish
20% @ 3.9ishOnly small in-play stakes for me on this one... Maximum stake 0.2pts £20 (ie 4 x's £4)
Typical staking might look like
20% @ 1.45 on 10mins
20% @ 1.65
20% @ 1.85
20% @ 2.9ish
20% @ 3.9ish -
I'd keep testing until you reach 1,000. The average goals this year has dropped. Could be COVID related or part of a larger trend.
Use the summer leagues in particular; they will have had a proper pre-season break and have crowds. That way you can see if the unders trend still functions under "normal" conditions. -
@matt-wood Yep, would agree with Stuart... If it's a new strategy, 1,000 games/results will give you solid data
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@stuart-capstick Backing unders and letting it run.
Think I will do a blog post on it shortly so everyone can have a look at the data and pull it apart
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I'm guessing you are backing/laying next overs/unders and cashing out? Or are you letting it run?
Either way, waiting for 1,000 will be much better for you. Then you can look at the effect of league, time of first goal, time of first goal SH, HT scoreline, etc. Eking out a few extra percent in this type of strategy will seem like a royal pain in the arse but the benefits to your profitability will be huge.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
It depends to an extent on the market(s) you are looking at, but I'd say if it is profitable after 1,000 pieces of data, it'll probably continue to be so.
You can then look to maximise it(leagues, scorelines at HT, impact of who scored first, prices etc).
Morning Stuart. Market varies as it is depends in the score in a game at HT. Looking at +1.5 goals post HT.
I did have in the back of my mind to get to 1000 games before putting any serious staking plan in place.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood Hi Matt, first of all is it a new strategy or a new filter to an already proven strategy.
Also, have you been paper trading it if so how has it gone?
Generally speaking 100 games will show you what to expect but 500 games should generate solid data.
Sometimes we can be over cautious but due diligence is vital to achieve regular success.
Morning Alan.
'New' Strategy I have been testing since just before xmas.
Did a run of 200ish games just as a market feel out. Got a sr of 68% so thought I would keep going.
Tweaked the filter and started paper trading with 1pt. This is now at almost 200 games and has generated green to the tune of 34pts.So in total I am at almost 400 games with it. Think I will get to 500 before putting any real money. Thanks for the reply.
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It depends to an extent on the market(s) you are looking at, but I'd say if it is profitable after 1,000 pieces of data, it'll probably continue to be so.
You can then look to maximise it(leagues, scorelines at HT, impact of who scored first, prices etc).
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@matt-wood Hi Matt, first of all is it a new strategy or a new filter to an already proven strategy.
Also, have you been paper trading it if so how has it gone?
Generally speaking 100 games will show you what to expect but 500 games should generate solid data.
Sometimes we can be over cautious but due diligence is vital to achieve regular success.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I entered one of my variations of a Split Stake on all 4 Europa games but didnt post on here as it is a bit dodgy with first leg quarter final games.
Regards to SHG trades my picks are
Ajax - Win
Arsenal - Win
Zagreb - LossWill back plus 2 goals HT, plus 2 goals on 59mins & LCS at 1.9 if no goals
Although a losing SHG trade in Zagreb it was a cracking night in Europe
o2.5 goal Split Stake Ajax - Win
SHG Ajax - Win
o1.5 goal Split Stake Aresnal - Win
SHG Arsenal - Win
o1.5 goal Split Stake Zagreb - Win
SHG Zagreb - Loss
o1.5 goal Split Stake Granada - WinOverall P&L 2.7pts green
It got a bit complex at times hence a tad garbled SHG post
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHGs:
granada
dinamo
arsenalI like only arsenal for a late goal so will be watching that, but ill post if it qualifies for a late goal also.
late goal trade now for arsenal also
GOAL! 3/4 there with the arsenal late goal covering up the outlay, means this midweek games have been great and hopefully push on with the profits over weekend.
+5pts since monday
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Evening gang LCS at Arsenal matched at 1.73 watching Ajax as well.
Matched at Ajax 1.71.
2 out of 2 happy days.
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Evening gang LCS at Arsenal matched at 1.73 watching Ajax as well.
Matched at Ajax 1.71.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHGs:
granada
dinamo
arsenalI like only arsenal for a late goal so will be watching that, but ill post if it qualifies for a late goal also.
late goal trade now for arsenal also
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Removed red in Ajax plus 2 goals... Should be another goal there
