LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 8th
Yeni Malatyaspor Fenerbahce
Granada Man UtdKeep an eye on:
Dinamo Zagreb VillarealEdit- I'm in on Dinamo Zagreb Villareal.
May as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb.
I should add that alongside this I have about 6 other set and forgets as well as some in-play stuff.
This diversification means that losses are smoothed out. It also means that when one takes off I don't get massive increases in bank size, nor do I get the massive drops either.I'd say for inplay, concentrate on one or two markets at the most.
But set and forgets, try to have a range. For example, if you LTD you may want to look at U2.5 as the most common draw line is 1-1, followed by 0-0. So, if you lost out on the LTD, you can still win with U2.5. That's a very simplistic example but hopefully you get the idea. You can also win both if you get a 1-0 or 2-0; both common scorelines.
Whatever you do, make sure you have about 1,000 pieces of data before even thinking about trading/betting. You can't really see if anything is significant with fewer results.great comment.
I have been doing a bit of analysis tonight. I have not been on all your trades, I have missed quite a few but the ones I have done since start of year (215 trades)
I found that 3.55 -4.1 inclusive has been the sweet spot in my results. 24.8 points.
Followed by 3-4 inclusive 18.8
3-3.9 10.98
3.5 - 4.5 17.39.Im not sure how that falls in line with your results but I think going forward I will stay in the range of 3.55-4.1.
Hope this helps somebody.
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April 9th
Metz Lille
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 8th
Yeni Malatyaspor Fenerbahce 1-1
Granada Man Utd 0-2Keep an eye on:
Dinamo Zagreb Villareal 0-1Edit- I'm in on Dinamo Zagreb Villareal.
May as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb.
I should add that alongside this I have about 6 other set and forgets as well as some in-play stuff.
This diversification means that losses are smoothed out. It also means that when one takes off I don't get massive increases in bank size, nor do I get the massive drops either.I'd say for inplay, concentrate on one or two markets at the most.
But set and forgets, try to have a range. For example, if you LTD you may want to look at U2.5 as the most common draw line is 1-1, followed by 0-0. So, if you lost out on the LTD, you can still win with U2.5. That's a very simplistic example but hopefully you get the idea. You can also win both if you get a 1-0 or 2-0; both common scorelines.
Whatever you do, make sure you have about 1,000 pieces of data before even thinking about trading/betting. You can't really see if anything is significant with fewer results.Today's obligatory disallowed goal was brought to you by Fenerbahce.
-1.1 pt
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April 8th
Yeni Malatyaspor Fenerbahce
Granada Man UtdKeep an eye on:
Dinamo Zagreb VillarealEdit- I'm in on Dinamo Zagreb Villareal.
May as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb.
I should add that alongside this I have about 6 other set and forgets as well as some in-play stuff.
This diversification means that losses are smoothed out. It also means that when one takes off I don't get massive increases in bank size, nor do I get the massive drops either.I'd say for inplay, concentrate on one or two markets at the most.
But set and forgets, try to have a range. For example, if you LTD you may want to look at U2.5 as the most common draw line is 1-1, followed by 0-0. So, if you lost out on the LTD, you can still win with U2.5. That's a very simplistic example but hopefully you get the idea. You can also win both if you get a 1-0 or 2-0; both common scorelines.
Whatever you do, make sure you have about 1,000 pieces of data before even thinking about trading/betting. You can't really see if anything is significant with fewer results. -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 7th
Yokohama Hiroshima 0-3
Shonan Nagoya 0-0
Rad Beograd Vojvodina 2-0-0.55 pts
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April 7th
Yokohama Hiroshima
Shonan Nagoya
Rad Beograd Vojvodina -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 6th
Macva Sabac Mladost Lucani (Serbia) 0-2
0.98 pts
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The average is 6pts per month, but the swings can be quite large. Some months +30, others -30.
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@stuart-capstick thanks for the response. I was curious as you mentioned you get around 6pts per month but Matt was tracking something lower. I just wondered how much that had an impact but from the sounds of it, it's swings and roundabouts, some will drift and others will come in.
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It depends on a few things:
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The draw price tends to drift with big favourites nearer kick-off. Better to place these the night or day before.
NB: "tends" to, but not always. -
Queueing the night before for a lower draw price often works- you can get matched pre-kick off or early into the first half.
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Then there is the random noise factor- team news, weather etc
If you are using double chance, there is probably a different set of factors involved, namely this is less liquid than the draw market.
Also, your profit (and losses) will never be as high from double chance. -
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@stuart-capstick when are you usually entering the trade? I know it's a set and forget but do you notice changes in price closer to KO rather than early morning? I wonder if that's why @Matt-Wood is getting different results?
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April 6th
Macva Sabac Mladost Lucani (Serbia)
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 5th
Farense Braga 1-2
Moreirense Sporting Lisbon 1-1Sporting had TWO goals disallowed and Moreirense scored in the 90th minute.
-2.6 pts.
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Gutted about that equaliser from Moreirense
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Inspired by your question, I've found the following for this season (2020-21)
Scot Prem- -25pts
Eng Prem- -23pts
Serie A- -6ptsGrand total for the season so far= 93pts (including the Europa Qualifiers in August)
those are some SCARY numbers XD I have no further questions hahaha
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Inspired by your question, I've found the following for this season (2020-21)
Scot Prem- -25pts
Eng Prem- -23pts
Serie A- -6ptsGrand total for the season so far= 93pts (including the Europa Qualifiers in August)
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Yeah, that's why it's not in the strategy.
Sorry Stu, I was just curious as to how bad they may be but I can find that info out myself if I'm that interested. I didn't mean to come across as though I was digging and trying to stick my oar in - I'm a big fan of this strategy you've brought to the forum!
Just re-read this. Sorry, my answer does come across a bit arsey. I've got a really bad habit of trying to do fourteen things at once and doing them all p**s poorly, meaning that I write messages without really proof-reading them.
No worries! Its hard to convey tone of voice through a forum like this. Thanks for the response
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@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Yeah, that's why it's not in the strategy.
Sorry Stu, I was just curious as to how bad they may be but I can find that info out myself if I'm that interested. I didn't mean to come across as though I was digging and trying to stick my oar in - I'm a big fan of this strategy you've brought to the forum!
Just re-read this. Sorry, my answer does come across a bit arsey. I've got a really bad habit of trying to do fourteen things at once and doing them all p**s poorly, meaning that I write messages without really proof-reading them.
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Spain would lose you about 18 points since 2017.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Yeah, that's why it's not in the strategy.
Sorry Stu, I was just curious as to how bad they may be but I can find that info out myself if I'm that interested. I didn't mean to come across as though I was digging and trying to stick my oar in - I'm a big fan of this strategy you've brought to the forum!
