Part Time Trading Career Starts Here
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After trading casually for about 4 or 5 years today is the day that I'm comitting myself to trading and treating it as a part time job. I've dedicated a hell of a lot of time to it over the years and it's been confidence and discipline that has held me back.
I'm now confident that I'm over the discipline issues (see what I did there) and I have also instilled some self confidence in myself by testing and becoming comfortable with my selections and rationale.
I've saved a bank over the past few months and today I've finally deposited it in to my Betfair account and it feels good!
I'm going to chart my progress here - not suggesting anybody follows the selections I post but this is accountability for me and some might find it interesting!
Monday 29th March
13:30 Hradec vs Vysocina U 2.5 Goals @2.02
I got on this one a bit too soon before kick off in hindsight as the price rose to 2.14 leaving me with longer in the market to reach my exit point. It took until the 6th minute for the price to fall back to 2.02, there had been no shots on target at this point.
The away team, who were underdogs priced at 6.00 were on top in the early stages and had 3 corners which stopped the price for the unders dropping. I was tempted to cash out and scratch the trade when I saw that the price wasn't moving as fast as I'd hoped but once I realised it was due to underdohg pressure & my research identified a real lack of early away goals for them, I decided to trust my research and stay in.
In line with my plan, I reduced my liability by 25% after the price dropped to 1.94 which was also after 10 mins, once the corners had been cleared I guess.
My second Lay of 25% was matched at 1.84 after 14 minutes. I was pleased to get 50% liability off the table and in line with my plan I was going to be out of the market no later than 20 minutes.
Hradec scored after 18 minutes which meant I exited the trade a few minutes later when the market settled for a loss of round 25%.
Normally I would have been out of the trade by the 18th minute, if prices had moved more quickly in the opening 10 minutes, so I feel this one was just a bit unfortunate and I'll take it on the chin.
14:00 Wanderers vs Cerro Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.58
1.58 is way too low to back for this strategy as the odds don't move anywhere near quickly enough in the first 15 minutes to be able to get in and out with a suitable profit.
As soon as I placed this I knew I shouldn't have - I was distracted doing something else, noticed the time and knew that I had on my plan a game that matched my filter at 14:00. I rushed back to my screen and just placed the trade. If I'd have been disciplined I would have scratched this off because the odds were too low - but I didn't.
I planned on getting out for scratch as soon as I could, I was £1 away from this and Cerro scored on 12 mins (shows how slowly the odds move at those prices).
One positive I take from these two trades, and it's actually a big positive and leaves me feeling happy even after 2 losses - it's that I didn't stay in and chase the losses down. In the past I would have hung in the market to try and get the loss down, telling myself that there wont be another goal before half time, hold out etc.
With this strategy I need to be more disciplined with prices so that I can benefit from time decay as is intended, it means nothing below 2.00 I think - would love to hear any thoughts on appropriate prices to trade U2.5 goals?
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@dave-adams for the month of March I did 47 trades, highest odds at KO were 2.92 and lowest was 1.72. The reason why it's outside of my range is because prices move so much just before KO (as previously discussed). The 2.92 was Ross County vs Celtic which was 0-0 at HT and 1-0 at FT. I've also had Atalanta vs Spezia 2.86 @ KO and Real Madrid vs Levente 2.66 @ KO, both were 0-0 at HT. Those 3 games you would expect goals so could actually become a LCS/ SHG strategy?
Of the 47 trades I had an 87% SR, 40 games had 1 or fewer goals in FH. 30 had 2 or fewer goals at FT. I was hoping to develop it into a set and forget strategy. This is the filter I was using if there's anything that overlaps with yours (avoid low liqiudity leagues, I've only really tested the top European ones).
The strange thing is, after watching Ryan's instructional videos on setting filters, it's not set up for my strategy! But seems to work and as they say "if it aint broke...". The last criteria is so I can see how much liquidity there is.
Obviously I would take it with a huge portion of salt as I've only really been able to test it during February and March. I would like to give it a full season and see how things change.
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@dave-adams Glad to offer my limited thoughts
I think @Dan-MacKinnon has probably gone deeper into the number crunching than I have.I agree that the 'recovery' method of U3.5 does very much feel like chasing, which is why I dont do it now. Couple this with what @Dan-MacKinnon has said about the different mindsets needed, agree here with him, and it is very easy to chase a trade that goes bad with an early goal. Possibly the exit plan and point is the most important aspect of this trade? If so then it must be the most strictly applied aspect also.
My filter is currently in its 2nd run through. 1st run, after 150 games, got a SR of 74.8%, a win being counted if no goal before 10mins. This 2nd run through is only at 31 games so far but has a SR of 80.65% and ave odds of 2.13. 1st goal ave time is 28.15mins.
Happy to share the filter if anyone wants it to track, and probably improve
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@Dan-MacKinnon @Matt-Wood Thanks for the replies, massively intetesting posts, well chuffed to get such helpful and insightful responses to my ramblings, really helpful.
The price movements observations are something I've been trying to track so it's great that you've made more progress than I have here. I'm guessing those movements are based on the ranges you mention being optimal, so minimum 1.90?
A lot of the games that I find fit my filter fall between 1.70 & 1.90 and I'm finding it tough to find much with odds near 2.00, might be that my filter is too strict but then I find it counter intuitive to loosen the filter, potentially letting more losers in. I need to find the sweet spot I guess, where the extra risk is manageble alongside the quicker odds decay.
I've just finished back testing my current filter for the Championship in 20/21. Looking purely at U2.5 goals for the full 90 mins it had a 66% strike rate but that goes up to 76% when going back and factoring in the scores after 15 mins (so some games that ended 3-2 were actually winners because the first goal cam after 15 mins) and some winners became losers, but nowhere near as many.
The average are odds are around 1.73 so a little lower than I'd like but I feel that's about what i can expect with the criteria set.
I too tried the U3.5 tactic Matt, I see the merits but it still feels a bit like chasing, even though the idea is to drive down the total loss rather than actually make profit. I think for the sake of my personal style I need to get out as soon as a goal goes in because in the past I've left it too long and that 2nd goal has come and ruined the work.
I would like to do some work on the amount of goals scored in such games AFTER a goal in the first 20 minutes. My hypothesis being that once that goal goes in, in a game you've identified as being low scoring, the U2.5 goals will be much more attractive and entering the U2.5 market at the point a goal is scored could prove profitable.
Thanks for the tips on catching the best prices too both, definitley be taking this on board.
Good luck with the studies Dan!
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I've also been doing some research on U2.5G and noticed some of the following:
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Early in the morning, more often than not the prices are higher. If you miss that then wait around 1 minute after kick off because the price gets pushed up about 3-4 minutes before KO
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The average price movements after about 70 tests that I can see are:
1st .10 movement = 5-7 minutes
2nd 10 movement = 7-9 minutes
3rd 10 movement = 12-15 minutes
4th 10 movement = 15-18 minutes
Using the above I was able to get 25% profit of my original stake within 20 minutes. If you're not seeing those then it's probably due to lack of liquidity or the game is a bit too lively that odds won't drop.
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Same as what @Matt-Wood said, I tested these with odds ranging between 1.9-2.7. I found that lower than 1.9 there wasn't enough movement and above 2.7 the probability of a goal before 20 minutes was too high. Using Martin's probability ratio 1.9 = 52% probability, whereas 2.8 = 35% probability.
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Knowing your exit plan is key. The trouble with trading unders and I've noticed it reading a few posts on here, the mindset is completely different from trading overs. Trading overs you're watching your stake move into the red and hoping for a goal. Trading unders you're watching your profit build up (literally) and when a goal goes in you're thrown into the red - that's a lot harder to take, and people react impulsively to win it back. I've been testing a strategy where I aim to get out after 25% of my stake, or 20 minutes (whichever is earlier). If there is 1 goal I let it run until HT and more often than not you'll get about 0-5% back. If there are 2 goals I leave it as a bet and acknowledge I might lose 100% of my stake. I had 4 games that had 2 early goals, 50% of them finished u2.5G. The only issue is when you get 2 back to back it's a right pain!
I've currently stopped trading my u2.5G because I think it might start getting into silly season and goals flying in. I'm also studying to become chartered within my profession so just focusing on 1 strategy. However, if you wanted to talk more or see my results I'm happy to share them.
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Morning Dave, congrats on taking the step of reaching the confidence to trade as part time income.
I have been playing around with a very similar U2.5 system since I started in June last year. Obviously I made ALL of the idiot rookie mistakes but have been more strict since xmas.
I have been paper trading this system since Jan 1st and learned a few things along the way.
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It seems to always be best to straight cash out after an early goal and move on.
I had tried several different 'recovery' methods, like hanging in to reach scratch (later tried hanging in to reach 10% loss). Not worth it as if a 2nd goal goes in you are screwed.
Tried cashing out and jumping into the U3.5 market to catch the over reaction in price and play out the same strategy to reach either scratch or 10% loss. Slightly more success here but still screwed if that 2nd goal goes in early. -
In regards to your first trade here, catching the optimal pre match price is something I have fought with. What I settled on was running my filter in the morning, doing the research on a likely game, then (say its a 15:00 KO) placing a back U2.5 and asking for odd a fair way over the current price. Set up a reminder to look 5mins before KO, if not matched then assess and set your price there before going into the game. This way you dont get caught like you did on that first trade, also sometimes you get you huge asking price matched before KO and make some green before the game even starts.
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Price for this on my paper trades I do not go below 1.85, as you say the prices start to move too slowly once in game when you get lower.
Hope this helps a little, I am still a beginner and I am sure there are much more experienced people with better advice
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