2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Cracking mens semi final yesterday between RBA and Sinner. Which also brought me my biggest profit of the tournament. At 19, Sinner is potenially the next global superstar, already ranked 31 and likely to go into the top 20 after his run to the final this week which he is more than capable of winning against Hurkasc tomorrow.
I only really trade ATP games when WTA thin on the ground but with the Clay court season starting on Monday probably something I need to look into,
Women's final today, Barty v Andreescu, Barty should win as is the fresher of the two but Andreescu will battle to the end. Its good to see her coming back to the form she was in when winning the US Open in 2019 before she got injured and missed all of last year through fitness and covid.
It should be a close match potentially 3 sets which Andreescu has gone to in all but one of her matches including a 2 marathons in the last rounds with Tormo and Sakkari. Barty also gone to 3 sets in 3 of her 5 games but had an easy semi final against Svitolina
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Not really too much to go at over the past couple of days the tradeable games have been too late for me but bonus back of hurkacz at start of 3rd just paid off.
More to do with Tsitipas losing the plot from cruising at a set and break up only to lose the 2nd and having cross words with his team including his dad.
1st women’s semi final between Barty and Svitolina has 3 sets written all over it which probably means it will be a straight sets rout for one of them.
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All a bi of a struggle yesterday, mainly due to a lack of focus on my part although ended up with a small profit mainly from Pliskova and Muguruza, lost a bit on Rybakina although did manage to limit the loss.
Was falling asleep, left myself a free bet on Kenin which didn’t materialise into anything.
Couple of interesting looking games today - Barty v Azarenka and Kvitova v Svitolina which the schedulers have somehow managed to put on at the same time to open play today.
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@chris-osborne amazing how many times it does mate and serving to stay in a set.
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@james-woodroffe Makes sense - laying someone serving for a set 5-4 up is something I look out for, paid off with Svitolina earlier
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@chris-osborne I once asked Robbie Koernig the Saffa commentator why the best players can find a break at 4-4 or 5-5 or when the lesser players are serving for a set or to stay in it. He said mainly the lesser players are aware of the situation and put added pressure on themselves via the scoreboard. The better players stick to the belief they’re better and ignore the scoreboard knowing their opponent has an eye on it and just play each point on its merit knowing their opponent is concentrating on both.
Upsets happen obviously but there’s a reason these kind of tournaments are easier to gage. -
@james-woodroffe; @karl-mccarthy, nicely done both, similar day for me as well on azarenka and Kerber. Also got a decent return on Svitolina in her see saw 1st set.
Seem to be making most of my returns this week backing the favourite when they go a break down in the 1st and coming back into it.
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@karl-mccarthy nice one mate. I’m having a lovely day on the tennis so far. Backed Kerber at 3.55 thinking Azarenka would take most of the set to warm up. Greened up on Kerber backed Azarenka at 2.04 greened up Azarenka 1.14. Backed Sabalenka at 2.04 greened up there at the end of set. Backed Cilic down a set got out up the break as he’s not the old Marin. Got Swiatek down a set. Quite a few haven’t qualified but the ones that have it’s been a good day.
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I layed De Minaur @ 1.2 in first set and he goes on to break Galan serve and ev take the set, so left it be and had dinner. Came back later to find Galan a break up in the 2nd and see a nice chuck of green.
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@chris-osborne great minds
got out after Swiatek took the 2nd. -
@james-woodroffe Thanks it was on my list but replaced by Swiatek who originally wasn't but in a right battle with Konjuh having lost the 1st and break up in the 2nd
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Halep has pulled out of her match against Sevastova for anyone who was looking to trade that match today.
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@chris-osborne yeah it’s an interesting one. Kenepi was serving like a busted arse but they can turn it around so quickly alas she continued to be awful.
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@james-woodroffe I was tempted by the Rybakina lay at the end of the 1st set but decided against it due to the way the game played out. Not often I make that call usually would go in anyway.
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@chris-osborne sounds like we had an almost identical day except Rybakina cost me as I laid her after she won the first. Terrible trade in hindsight as she won 6-0 in what seemed like 6 minutes and it went against me really quickly. However like you was able to get Putinseva and Andrescu down breaks in the first and out at end of set 1. Like I said yesterday hardly anything qualified but I did fall asleep around 10pm (dunno how but I did) missed the Evans v Tiafoe lay first set winner and the back of Kenin but all good scratch for the day.
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More like it 5pt profit from 4 games traded all first set trades three of which - Putinseva, Rybakina and Andreescu we're from backing them when they fell a break behind in the first and managed to turn around one way or another, cashing out at the end of the set.
Bonus profit from Mertens game laying her at the start at 1.11 cashing out when she lost the first three games to Katie Boulter and had to save break points to avoid going 4-0 down. After which she only lost two more games.
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Quite the long list today but as is the way I don't expect many of these to end up being traded.
2 Lay first set winners one WTA
Kanepi v Rybakina
1 ATP
Evans v TiafoeBACK IF THEY LOSE THE FIRST
MERTENS v Boulter
OSAKA v Tomijanovic
SAKKARI v Rus
ZVEREV v Ruusuvouri
SINNER v GastonPRICE ENTRY TRADES
PUTINSEVA v Stojanovic approx 2.0
JABEUR v Badosa approx 1.80
KENIN v Petkovic approx 1.80
PLISKOVA v Zheng approx 1.80
ANDRESCU v Martincova approx 1.80
BUBLIK v Djere approx 1.80
FELIX AA v Hughes Herbert approx 2.0 -
Good day yesterday thanks to Sabalenka, Svitolina, Barty and Halep.
Just over 10 points green, after all but Barty were able to turn a set deficit around into victories.
Barty slightly different as she won the opening set before dropping the 2nd and finding herself a break down in the 3rd.
Barty broke back at 3-5 in the 3rd and went on to win the set 7-5.
Only one that went against me was Collins as I backed her after she dropped the first and got out for 2 points red there.
Overall 8 points for the day so happy with that especially as we saw a return of the bigger names in the WTA and the top seeds in the ATP will be in action today-tonight.
As for MTO'S @Chris-Osborne I have no doubt that they are tactical and a blight on the game. -
Scratch day yesterday in the end, promised a lot but in the end a situation occurred a couple of times which meant I had to take a loss which I'll come onto in a minute.
Backed Sabalenka when she was 4-0 down in the first set - she can be a slow starter and I didn't see anyway she would eventually lose to Pironkova. Remembering the game last year against Tormo I think it was where she was a set and 4-0 down and still won the match. Although the form Tormo is in now that wouldn't happen today. I rebacked when she went a break down in the 2nd set. - set and break down can be a good situation as the leading player will sometimes relax. Although she went a break down she fought back to win the set at which point I left myself a significant free bet. These days I normally cash out there but thought Sab would win the 3rd set easily. How wrong that situation was. They basically exchanged breaks on more than one occasion but I cashed out after the first offsetting breaks. Somehow she pulled back from two breaks down to force a tiebreak at which point she won the match.
Also had a decent trade on Svitolina also after she lost the first set I cashed out in the 2nd set because at the time she looked like was rushing and didn't want to be there but she is a fighter and not a quitter like some and went on to win the match.
Recurring theme yesterday was top seeds struggling, whether it was because opponents had played one game and possibly more if come through qualifiers I don't know as Barty also went to three sets and should of lost -missed the entry point as was was going to lay from the start.
Took a loss on keys having laid Konjuh after she took a tight first set with most games going to deuce but she took the second easily. As I posted yesterday, Konjuh is a player to watch along with Tauson.
MTO's is the point I want to discuss as cashed out a couple of times with Collins and Halep after they took MTO's. Now there are so many MTO's particularly in the WTA that something needs to be done about it, most of them cannot be genuine and are clearly tactical.
Collins was definately not tactical, she retired from her last match with a back injury and I found out yesterday she suffers from Rheumatoid Arthiritis which needs to be managed. Halep however, looked fine in the games before she took the MTO but was getting treatment on her shoulder but also they took her pulse which was the concern especially after what happened to JAck Draper earlier in the day which was scary but he seems to be ok. Halep went onto to break the next game and take the match in three sets after losing the first set.
My question is how do people treat MTO's from 2nd set onwards my default response is to cash out immediately but there are so many occasions where the player looks fine before and afterwards I'm not sure at the minute. I guess its a case of judging each case on its own merit. Its not restricted to WTA, happening a fair bit on ATP as well, Djokovic notorious for taking an "imaginary" MTO if struggles in 1st set.
Anyway I've waffled on enough.
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Only traded a couple of games yesterday as was falling asleep whether that was due to the COVID Jab on Tuesday I'm not sure.
Cpuple of decent LAy 1st set winning trades in the Boulter and Konjuh games - its about time the Pliskova's started paying back there debt to me from Karolina's ineptitide and laziness.
Konjuh is probably a player to watch, she came through the Junior ranks at the same time as Bencic and Osaka, was starting to make a name for herself and picking up decent results until she missed the best part of three seasons due to an elbow injury that needed 4 operations. Plays Keys today and ashe has a chance depending on which version of Keys turns up.
I did give a bit back on the Cornet and Garcia games but took losses early from 1st set positions, starting to think I get involved too early.
As well as the Keys v Konjuh match, a few other interesting games today: -
Rogers v Svitolina
Kudermetova v Collins
Halep v Garcia
