The BTC Football Trading Thread

? Offline

Backed a FHG in the Belgium vs Wales game @1.43 think that looks too big to me. If this was a league game it would be closer to 1.25/1.3

? Offline

Learnt a lesson tonight, Laid the dog on the Netherlands match at 2-0....then it went 3-0 and I thought thats it. I said to the wife, I am off to make the tea just keep me informed of the score line. At 75 mins it went 3-1, so I said let me know if Netherlands scores anytime soon so that I can get out either with a small loss or a small green. Next thing she says its that is 4-2.......it looks like she went off and looked at some cats on youtube and missed the 76 min goal.....My fault for trusting her....only been married 20+years...should have learnt by now...Cats rule.

Daniel Helps 0

@daniel-helps-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I don't normally ever trade international football, but Turkey v Netherlands looks good for a SHG. 2-0 to Turkey at HT but Netherlands are all over Turkey, they won't want to lose their first qualifying match so either Netherlands will score early on in SH or Turkey will score a third on the break as Netherlands push forward, so will drip enter O3.5

So my next post will be either 'GOALLLL' or 'that's why I don't trade internationals'... We shall see

GOALLLL

Daniel Helps 0

I don't normally ever trade international football, but Turkey v Netherlands looks good for a SHG. 2-0 to Turkey at HT but Netherlands are all over Turkey, they won't want to lose their first qualifying match so either Netherlands will score early on in SH or Turkey will score a third on the break as Netherlands push forward, so will drip enter O3.5

So my next post will be either 'GOALLLL' or 'that's why I don't trade internationals'... We shall see

Richard Latimer

@karl-mccarthy said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Two very very early goals. Inplay stats not doing it for me though in this one.

I don't look at inplay stats anymore. Only match scenario and pre match odds.

Akiva Anderson

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson great post Keith! Whats your twitter handle? I'll make sure BTC follows you (if not already)

@erasmus_east

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Will go for 70th min goal in Jihlava

1-2

? Offline

@richard-latimer Two very very early goals. Inplay stats not doing it for me though in this one.

Richard Latimer

Will go for 70th min goal in Jihlava

Ryan

@keith-anderson great post Keith! Whats your twitter handle? I'll make sure BTC follows you (if not already)

liam willis

@keith-anderson cracking read mate i have smarkets as my iffy trades bank, saturdays was always negative for me, whenever i looked into it i was amazed at how many trades ive made it was crazy. my saturdays are nearly always profitable now just by cutting the trades down and going for quality over quantity.

Akiva Anderson

A few people via Twitter have messaged me about 'Over Trading'. Here is my honest response.

'I suffered badly from over trading at the start. I mean, really badly. On a busy day of football I could have easily had 15 - 18 trades a day. Of course this was never sustainable in the long run. When I started trading I didn't have a hefty trading bank and trying to reach a suitable trading bank at least lead me to over trade. Saturday's where my worse trading days - those 3:00pm kick-offs. I still over trade to this day, but it is a lot less than previous years and I'll developed coping strategies to try and alleviate over trading.

I tend to get involved in three markets - Laying Under 1.5 Goals, LCS or LTD at HT.

My 'Laying Under 1.5 Goals' is my FOMO. I manage this via my Betdaq account. This strategy is actually my failure to find a profitable FHG strategy. It is a lot of the time, more of a gamble than a trade. I tend to look at value of odds rather than stats. Sometimes it actually performs really well. It is definitely improving. Betdaq is in essence my 'bad bank'. These are managed risks and prevent me from eating into my essential profit on Betfair.

My 'LCS' - This is often done at HT if the LCS & LTD odds aren't too far apart. A large portion of this is on Betfair. You'll find the Spanish Segunda odds are quite favourable to LCS at HT. I might also LCS if I'm watching the match and suspect another goal (in this case I'll use Betdaq - as it is a bit of a gamble).

My 'LTD' has always been my bread and butter. Betfair only for this, as a lot of matches on Betdaq just don't have the liquidity that I'm looking for. It's stats based and odds based. I would never LTD above 3.0.

What I'm trying to say is, I haven't eradicated over trading, but it is manageable and you can still be profitable. Over Trading and FOMO can be worked on. As I've increased my stakes I have got better at managing it. There is no problem that can't be solved. But you might have to work on it and be patient.'

? Offline

@james-rome Me too. Glad I got my green from the equaliser and left it at that.

? Offline

@karl-mccarthy

@karl-mccarthy said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-rome I will be amazed if Sydney don't get a winner.

shocked that ended 1-1

? Offline

@karl-mccarthy had like 17 shots 10 on target surely got to be another goal

Akiva Anderson

Great to see the Laying Under 1.5 goals in the A-League is still performing well

? Offline

@james-rome I will be amazed if Sydney don't get a winner.

? Offline

@karl-mccarthy i got in for LTD when they equlaised had it on before HT as thought sydney all over them then typically perth scored. cashed out and been waiting for them to equalise

? Offline

Was just about to post LCS on Perth Glory v Sydney FC with Perth 1-0 but Sydney just equalised. Will be amazed if this finishes 1-1 so might still be worth late LTD.

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson hey... 1-0 Ballymena... We going for another one

Oh and by the way thanks as you've scratched my fiasco at Mansfield

I’m leaving it. I had layed under 1.5 in the Warrenpoint v Glentoran match as well. So I’m just in profit.

I’d hope for another goal in the Warrenpoint v Glentoran match. Glentoran are my team, so it’s hope rather than expectation it’s doesn’t look likely though. Very scrappy and Warrenpoint are time wasting

A goal for my wee team! Warrenpoint 1 - 2 Glentoran. Wasn't on it though!