The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer haha, well I think the discipline side of things for me needs a bit more work....Love the challenge...
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@richard-latimer thats a good way of looking at it
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@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Had a good couple of days before that and thought I had finally clicked into a set of trades...Yesterday, I just either missed the moment or jumped on something that had all the right signs but failed for no reason I could work out. I am on small stakes so it was the failing trades more than the monetary loss that pissed me off.
I've thought, that's it cracked it, so many times it's not funny. Even now I haven't cracked it. Just looking at things from a whole different angle and opening up so many more possibilities.
To crack it takes discipline but also I think, it seriously helps if you can think outside of the box which is what I'm starting to do now.
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
question for the stats guys: ive been collecting data for quite a while now and im trying to get my head around strike rates. my initial thought was if i have a sr of say 80% i can get on above 1.25 and ill be in profit. The thing i couldnt get in my head was that i would have to get on every game for that SR to be true. ive just had a lightbulb moment that i wouldnt need to get on every game i just need to get on any game (from the filter) above those odds to profit long term because it is +EV for the filter. So 2 questions actually is 1- have i got this right and looking at it the right way and 2- do i need to constantly track the results of the filter in case the SR drops slightly so will need to adjust or can i stop tracking after say 500 games ect.
Try looking at match scenario as well on top of your standard filter by that I mean look at the match odds and what happens at certain scorelines when certain odds ranges for home teams are used.
My filter on it's own is poor. To look at it, I have a ton of 0-0's, FHG's are sporadic and there are loads of games with no 2nd half goal.
Filter that down into categories however of scoreline against certain match odds and also odds for goals and the filter opens up into several sub filters as it were which are all performing WAY above expectation.
Goals breed goals so just because there were 2 early ones doesn't mean there won't be anymore. If anything it makes it more likely there will be more.
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@richard-latimer Had a good couple of days before that and thought I had finally clicked into a set of trades...Yesterday, I just either missed the moment or jumped on something that had all the right signs but failed for no reason I could work out. I am on small stakes so it was the failing trades more than the monetary loss that pissed me off.
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@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Good call, I needed that as its a slow day and yesterday, I lost the plot....
Yesterday was annoying but I still only lost 2pts and found more areas in which I could have prospered.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
I guess that was the average goals total as opposed to PSV's goals scored for H2 which was high at 1.4. I personally have just found the higher you go with averages the more flaky they tend to be in tight games where the end is near.
Also, the odds tend to be much higher for goals. Look at Salzberg over the weekend. Tracked it but can't think of a world where I would actually trade it.
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@richard-latimer Good call, I needed that as its a slow day and yesterday, I lost the plot....
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Too early on both counts but if there's another 17-34 I'll enter again in the 35th.
1st too early and the 2nd too late.
Same match. Going for a 70th minute goal.
If this ends 2-0 it won't be for a lack of shots on target for both teams.
3-0
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Too early on both counts but if there's another 17-34 I'll enter again in the 35th.
1st too early and the 2nd too late.
Same match. Going for a 70th minute goal.
If this ends 2-0 it won't be for a lack of shots on target for both teams.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@liam-willis from a statistical perspective, if you believe your SR to be correct than the law of large numbers would suggest that you won't need to trade every game (like Darri said, you need time off) but your SR will take longer to reach it's true value. I'm happy to be corrected but the way I understand it, if you trade 1 game for 1,000 days or 1,000 games in 1 day it should give you the same results.
Another thing to consider is random sequencing. A SR of 80% means that over 100 trades you'll get 20 losers, but you won't know when those 20 losers arrive. You could be really unlucky and the first 20 could lose and then go on a 80 trade winning streak. I think that's why it's important to keep tracking because the more numbers provides a truer SR.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Too early on both counts but if there's another 17-34 I'll enter again in the 35th.
1st too early and the 2nd too late.
Same match. Going for a 70th minute goal.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer @bottlabroon @Darri thanks for the replies guys its finally starting to sink in.
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah this is what i couldnt get my head around, so basically use the filter to choose the selections you want to trade then take the strike rate from them. think im getting it lol
Yeah, I would track them side by side so you know what you're actually getting as opposed to what you would be getting with all. If you could calculate odds you'd be able to know if each was value on their own but I couldn't.
In terms of continuing to track them I think the more matches you have, in theory the better your strategy should be. Plus you can end up finding all sorts of angles you hadn't planned on.
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@liam-willis You need to be aware that filtering out selections will change your SR. It's a trap many fall into.
Usually in efficient markets then the lower the price the higher the SR. Odds of 1.25 will generally have a much higher SR than odds of 1.75 etc.
So if you have a batch of results running at 80% and then filter out all those under 1.25 you will end up with a SR less than 80% and therefore will need better odds. Hope that makes sense.
After filtering out the lower odds you may then need 1.33 to break even so you filter out those.... Your strike rate will then be less than before and you'll need bigger odds once again.
It's a never ending process, every time you filter out the lowest odds you will be changing your SR and therefore price needed. -
@liam-willis A strike rate for a tested filter is a good solid base to decide if you keep on going with a strategy. But its your actual traded strike rate and odds that matter. So very easy for me to say man city will score in the 2nd half if that overall is a strike rate of say 80% but the odds on offer are say 1.11 then it wont work, so if thats something on your sheets then its an imbalance to your strike rate. Its about the games that actually would qualify. Thats why you DONT need to trade every game from a filter. If your thinking of it that way how are you ever going to have a holiday or take a day off for family? Youd become a slave to trading in fear of variance. Thats why its the actual traded/qualifying games with your odds that you should measure going forward. If your strategy cant average upwards in profit and its sole reliance is trading every game based on variance then its probably too small an edge to be long term viable (work/life balance).
In terms of tracking it after a big batch of tracking, look at your sheet and find out what the most important stats are to track and keep tracking them you can then ditch the ones with least influence on your strategy. For me with my filter i dont even track stats anymore, im just purely focussed on odds ranges. If your going down a data only type strategy its probably a wise decision to maintain the tracking as its the backbone to all your trades.
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@richard-latimer yeah this is what i couldnt get my head around, so basically use the filter to choose the selections you want to trade then take the strike rate from them. think im getting it lol
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
question for the stats guys: ive been collecting data for quite a while now and im trying to get my head around strike rates. my initial thought was if i have a sr of say 80% i can get on above 1.25 and ill be in profit. The thing i couldnt get in my head was that i would have to get on every game for that SR to be true. ive just had a lightbulb moment that i wouldnt need to get on every game i just need to get on any game (from the filter) above those odds to profit long term because it is +EV for the filter. So 2 questions actually is 1- have i got this right and looking at it the right way and 2- do i need to constantly track the results of the filter in case the SR drops slightly so will need to adjust or can i stop tracking after say 500 games ect.
I would NEVER stop tracking personally. Plus, you only know the overall gives s/r of 80% and not just the ones you cherry pick so to speak. This has been touched on before but missing a large amount of games COULD alter your strike rate drastically to the point where you need larger odds.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Too early on both counts but if there's another 17-34 I'll enter again in the 35th.
1st too early and the 2nd too late.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
question for the stats guys: ive been collecting data for quite a while now and im trying to get my head around strike rates. my initial thought was if i have a sr of say 80% i can get on above 1.25 and ill be in profit. The thing i couldnt get in my head was that i would have to get on every game for that SR to be true. ive just had a lightbulb moment that i wouldnt need to get on every game i just need to get on any game (from the filter) above those odds to profit long term because it is +EV for the filter. So 2 questions actually is 1- have i got this right and looking at it the right way and 2- do i need to constantly track the results of the filter in case the SR drops slightly so will need to adjust or can i stop tracking after say 500 games ect.
