@ivan1977uk For which filters?

@ivan1977uk OK, but I guess there are lots of ways of judging the probability of an event happening. The stats software will tell you what happened in recent matches as an indicator of various trends.

For example, this will show you how to set up a filter that will give you matches with Over 2.5 odds of at least 1.8, where both the home and away teams have scored goals in the first 30 minutes over their last 10 matches.

You might want to increase the percentages to suit your needs, for example you might be able to find matches where over 50% of goals were scored in the first 30 minutes, suggesting a high probability of early goals.

@ivan1977uk with 0-0 pre KO you usually get very good odds to back so can use little to no money to insure an LTD.

in the second example you have given you would essentially be laying 2-0 0-2 at large risk v rewards in terms of staking, doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

You can also use the BTC results sheet, so you can copy those into your sheet to help you get the results data and it would be in one place 🙂

http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com:4567/topic/840/btc-results-sheet

Me and Ryan don't use bet angel so no I wouldn't think so. When @Dave-Jessop is back he may be able to help 🙂

@martin-futter thank you

I don't know but I know its been pretty profitable for a few years for those that have used it.

@ian-keedwell Very nice matey, nice start 🙂 Love it!

@gary-brown said in New Methods to trial. Method 1 Back over 1.5 goals Method 2 Back over 1.5 or 2.5 goals at HT:

Some potential trades to look out for today.
Slovan Bratislava v Dundalk
Iceland 19:00:00 Breidablik KA Akureyri
Iceland 20:15:00 Valur Fylkir

From the possible selections yesterday I didn't ttrade the Bratislavia game after watching and tracking inplay stats it looked a no go especially within the first 30mins so I left this alone due to very little action.

I got in one the FH trade for the Breidablik game due to action looking great that backed up the research that they were clear favourites and it was likely that goals were going to be in this game. So this was a winner.

The Valur game started slow with what looked like two evenly matched sides cancelling each other out in the first 10-12 mins. It got a bit more lively after 15 mins and I was just about to place a trade for over 1.5 on 20 mins and then the goal game just as I was typing in the trade. So no trade for me on this one.

I think they are when there is liquidity and the odds are managed.

The first screen there was £74K matched, not to bad that.

Second one unmanaged odds and less money matched.

@gary-fisher nope we just want it to be drawing 🙂

@gary-fisher friendlies are laws unto themselves, have actually seen this before in a Serie A game too. would be very careful betting friendlies personally

Awesome. Thanks for the explanation. I’ll give it a try.

Now wouldn't that be good ✌

They are a good bunch here. Lots of profitable strategies. Just remember this is a slow burn and not a get rich quick scheme. Persistence and Perseverance will get you there.

@carl-smith did BF have this ticked to go in play? They are buggers for this! Check Smarkets as well.

My advice would be to learn trading first then use your methods to bank build, if you don't get that base stuff sorted first whatever bank you end up using will likely go down!

@ryan-carruthers Yep makes perfect sense. All we you need to be able to do is forecast what you think SP is , unfortunately it won't teach you how to be a good trader as throughout the period leading up to KO, there are moves, mini drifts, manipulation etc, i don't see why we can't do something along these lines.

@Gary-Brown I've just found this thread when reading though and I think it is excellent!

The part you wrote about aiming for 3% daily which would be around 20-25% weekly really brings all this into perspective! The increase in bank roll would be huge at 3% even with a few losing days.

Thanks and keep up the good work!