How to Make Money Trading the Outright Betting Markets on Betfair
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Anyone who has been a member of Betfair Trading Community will know that one our favourite markets to trade are the longer term outright betting markets. So for example markets like 'Premier League Winner' 'Wimbledon Men's Singles Winner' and 'Superbowl Winner'. The main reason is that these markets are often ripe with value due to the bigger odds on ourcomes due to the amount of teams or participants.
Some of the winning trades I have shared on the site in the past couple of years:
Grigor Dimitrov to win the ATP Finals at odds of 12+ (I also tipped the losing finalist Goffin at 30!) https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/atp-tour-world-finals-london-betting-trading-preview
Boston Red Sox to win the World Series Baseball at odds of 15.0+ (won it quite comfortably) https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/mlb-season-preview-2018
Chennai Super Kings to win the IPL at odds of 8.0+ (they won it easily). https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/ipl-cricket-trading-preview-2018
LA Rams to win the Superbowl at odds of 15.0 (they lost a close Superbowl game but traded odds on at one point!) https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/nfl-season-201819-early-preview
The great thing is -
Day traders tend to trade markets for that day and often ignore these other markets as they do not want to wait for a return or risk a stake of their bankroll not knowing when they can get it back. This also adds value for traders like myself as the markets are not really driven as much by the pro traders but more driven by the everyday punter who is much more likely to bet or trade these markets each year.
So how do I do it? Here are 5 key ways I have made money from outright betting markets:
1. Look early and make your move as soon as you see something you like!
One of the main reasons I am able to make money on these markets is that I beat others to the punch, have you ever heard the phrase the early bird gets the worm? Well I am that early bird, feasting on the outright betting markets! For example, I backed the Rams to win the Superbowl in 2018 at odds of 15.0 on May the 3rd, five months before the season started. You can do this in these markets because you are getting such big odds and your liability is low, why wait until the Rams start the season and watch their odds tumble if they start well taking most of the value away from the trade?
2. Watch the offseason moves, read what the experts think and use your own judgement to see if a team has really improved their chances of winning!
Why did I back the Rams on the 3rd of May, five months before the start of the season? Well this was when I found out the team, both the NFL free agency and draft processes were completed a couple of days before and I was able to assess that the Rams had massively upgraded an already strong team. The market was slow to react and 15.0 was just too good a price to turn down. There are so many videos you can watch, stats you can analyse and articles you can read. Combine all this with your own background knowledge (if it is rusty do some research and work!) and you will have a winning formula.
3. How would you price it? If the price is a lot bigger than you would price it then it could be value, so back it!
This works in all facets of trading and is a key skill for the successful trader to grasp. Imagine pricing up an event yourself, you don't have to imagine every teams price but maybe the one you have researched. I will give an example, this season I like the New England Patriots at a price of 8+, they did OK in free agency and very well in the draft. Other contenders seem to have weakened especially their main rivals Pittsburgh and the Cheifs who both lost their star wide recievers and running backs. So why do I think 8.0 (or 7/1) is value, well do they win it at least once in eight times? Hard to argue NO to that. Even just looking at the stats they have won 3 out of the last 5, even going back to 2002 they have won 6 out of 18, using this metric their odds should be around 2/1. The point is I would price the Patriots up at around the 3/1 mark at the most, as a result 7/1 is massive value to me, therefore I am backing it. Next time you trade think, 'does this player win more often in my opinion than the odds suggest?', 'is this team too big a price?' if so back them!
4. Are there some key motivators that suggest a player/team will have a great year?
The market will not factor in motivation, the market is driven purely by money and some of the larger Asian betting firms. However, we can factor this in, here are some examples:
- Has a team been wronged or is a team looking to bounce back from some off the field controversy (Chennai Super Kings were the perfect example of this), adversity can be a great motivator for sportsmen and women, even the millionaires!
- Has a team or player been written off because of age? Sports people are able to perform at the top level longer now, think of how Roger Federer and Tom Brady are leading the way on this front, still competing and winning the biggest competitions into their late 30s and early 40s.
- Has there been an important coaching upgrade? If so then this could have a massively positive impact on the player/team. Think Lendl coaching Murray and Guardiola or Klopp coaching anyone, the impact coaches can have is huge!
- How is player/team morale? If a player or team have fallen out or are having public personal problems with partners or team-mates, it can have a huge negative impact (think Djokovic when he had time out or Mourinho and Pogba at Man Utd). However, if a team bond or player/coaching staff bond is strong then you can see a massive improvement in that team (think Klopp at Liverpool or Farke at Norwich).
5. Try to remove bias as much as possible!
Do I want the Patroits to win the Superbowl next year? Hell no! Does that make any difference to my trading? No. Put emotions aside and use your analysis and research to make your key trading decisions. If you struggle to not use emotions then try just looking at the statistics infront of you to make the decision.
So there you have it the five main factors for trading the outright betting markets! If you haven't tried them yet then consider trading them, the yield can be high if you use the advice above.
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@dave-jessop
Well he didn't throw the towel in. Anything but in fact.
Higgins v Trump in the final barring a miracle. Now in that one I would love to see the old bastard grind Trump into dust....
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@dave-jessop said in How to Make Money Trading the Outright Betting Markets on Betfair:
@charles-cartwright said in How to Make Money Trading the Outright Betting Markets on Betfair:
On one of these currently though it looks like it might go down today
Backed Neil Robertson at 15 a couple of months back to win the World Snooker Championship. He was as low as about 2.5 before the QF started and so I laid off all the liability but was hoping he would at least get to the final so I could nibble away and take home a nice profit over the course of that match.
Drew Higgins in the QF who basically hasn't potted a ball most of the season but the old nuggety git has dug in and is 9-7 ahead going into the final session.
Higgins will throw the match if someone pays him enough
It's not like he has not been investigated before.....
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On one of these currently though it looks like it might go down today
Backed Neil Robertson at 15 a couple of months back to win the World Snooker Championship. He was as low as about 2.5 before the QF started and so I laid off all the liability but was hoping he would at least get to the final so I could nibble away and take home a nice profit over the course of that match.
Drew Higgins in the QF who basically hasn't potted a ball most of the season but the old nuggety git has dug in and is 9-7 ahead going into the final session.
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Ive done this once - a swing trade on the draw mayweather v mcgregor, the draw had huuuge odds for the draw several months in advance, if memory serves right it was around 200 - dropped to about 68 the day before the "fight"
