New blog post by Martin Futter! BTC Football Software Betting and Trading Strategy - The Results!
-
As many of you know I have been thoroughly testing some software filters using the Betfair Trading Community football statistics software. The results have been brilliant and the good news is these filters will be added to the site for you all to access in the next week. Also we will be emailing these picks out when the occur for the foreseeable future.
If you have listened to my podcasts or read my blog posts you will know I am a huge advocate of testing systems for at least three months before heavily investing in them, so that is what I have done.
I started from a base of very basic filters targeting low scoring games and shared these with the members of the community on a daily basis. One factor that became huge in identifying value early on was having odds limits in place. For example, I am not just interested in finding games where I expect low scores regardless of the odds there is no edge in that. I want to find games where I expect low scores but the odds do not reflect what I expect (as in they are juicier than they should be) that is where the value is at.
Anyway, without further ado here are the results:
Important - all results include a 5% commission, minimum odds to back under 2.5 goals MUST be 1.80 or above before kick-off for the pick to qualify as a trade/bet.
Filter 1 Unders Galore! (An unders filter)
Games Qualified Between 12th August - 11th November: 95
Betting outright:
Stake per bet: £10
Under 2.5 goals profit - £189.44
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 19.94%
Win % - 62.11
Under 1.5 goals profit - £361.78
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 38.08%
Win % - 37.89
Both teams to score NO profit - £231.02
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 24.32%
Win % - 62.11
Notable statistics for trading:
The scoreline was 0-0 at 30 mins in 65.26% of these games and an incredible 51.58% were 0-0 at HT. Given the fairly high goal odds (all picks above 1.8 for Under 2.5 goals) backing 0-0 at HT would be around 20% roi and a big profit. Backing under 1.5, 2.5 or BTTS No at KO at trading out at 30 mins or 45 mins would also have brought in very good profits. These are the best options for people who want to trade out using this filter rather than let the bets run.
Filter 2 Unders Galore! +: (A Richard Latimer inspired tweak of filter 1 designed to improve results)
Games Qualified Between 12th August - 11th November: 68
Betting outright:
Stake per bet: £10
Under 2.5 goals profit - £125.32
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 18.43%
Win % - 61.76
Under 1.5 goals profit - £276.23
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 40.62%
Win % - 38.24
Both teams to score NO profit - £218.73
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 32.17%
Win % - 66.18
Notable statistics for trading:
The scoreline was 0-0 at 30 mins in 63.23% of these games and an incredible 50% were 0-0 at HT. Given the fairly high goal odds (all picks above 1.8 for Under 2.5 goals) backing 0-0 at HT would be around 20% roi and a big profit. Backing under 1.5, 2.5 or BTTS No at KO at trading out at 30 mins or 45 mins would also have brought in very good profits. These are the best options for people who want to trade out using this filter rather than let the bets run.
A bonus filter for those who like overs and set and forget bets!
When testing out different betting strategies and systems you can come across things that surprise you. I stumbled upon a promising overs filter by checking the odds of low scoring teams. I saw that the odds on low scoring teams are actually often too low due to the fact the market expects unders so much. The market goes too far with the money put on unders and actually despite these teams being low scoring overs becomes a value play!
Here are the results:
Important - all results include a 5% commission, minimum odds to back over 1.5 goals MUST be 1.50 or above before kick-off for the pick to qualify as a trade/bet.
Filter 3 Over 1.5 Goals and Over 0.5 FHG:
Games Qualified Between 12th August - 11th November: 78
Betting outright:
Lay stake per bet: £10
Over 1.5 goals profit - £166.90
ROI (Rate of Interest) - 21.4%
Win % - 73.08
Over 0.5 first half goals profit
Win % - 74.36 - Minimum Target to Profit 60%
Conclusion:
All three of these filters have had great results during the three month testing period. Due to the selective nature of these strategies there are not a huge amount of picks per day but there is certainly enough to make a very good profit from. These filters will be added to the football statistics members filters section. We will also send out these selections daily via the email and keep the results up to date. If you are not a member now is the time to join 500 hundred other like minded traders here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/signup
The full results spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQYxOh-mUHfAm9OByLhzX0ooiQQUqYshfnDJLWRYHUY/edit?usp=sharing
