Ryan's Tennis Trading 12th September
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Tennis
Frode's PJH - WTA
Frode's (one of the members) shared his process on the forum for 3 difference in the PJH (projected hold) then when a break down back them (full rules on the forum). I have added colours to the difference & matched that the to player for ease for everybody! NB green is P1, red is P2.
Category
Tournament
Date
Player 1
Player 2
P1 PJH
P2 PJH
Difference
Wta - Singles
Quebec City
12/09/2018 16:00:00
Brengle M.
Puig M.
55.15
59.71
-4.56
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@rene-pichl Here's the rules
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
unfortunately, i don´t really understand ...
which of these players do you back, if a break down?
kind regards!
