World Cup Guide on Trading England
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England start their World Cup campaign today amidst some mild optimism from fans. Whilst it is difficult to really gauge where the team is at on the world stage, we will find out in the next couple of weeks.
Fortunately, England have been given one of the easier qualifying groups and are fancied to progress. So the question is, how do we trade England this World Cup?
One trend I have certainly noticed with England is that what you see tends to be what you get in matches. So when England look like they are playing well, they generally carry on playing well for the rest of the match. (Germany, Holland and Italy friendlies are examples of this).
When England look like they are playing badly, they generally play badly for the rest of the match. (Iceland loss is the perfect example of this).
To use this information to make some profit we have to take the market on when it looks like England are doing the opposite of what the odds are predicting. So if England are odds on but playing badly then lay them but if they are odds against and playing well then it would make sense to back them. For the first two group matches where England are heavy favourites we are looking for sluggish starts and an opportunity to lay England if they do start slowly.
The other thing England really struggle with is breaking down well organised teams (see Iceland loss and Costa Rica draw in major tournaments). If Tunisia and Panama have their wits about them they will look to what Iceland did against Argentina last week (and England a couple of years back) and set up a really well drilled defensive formation. If this looks like being the case then the odds on England will drift as time passes during the game. We prefer teams who come at us a bit and maybe Belgium will suit the England style more than Iceland did, despite Belgium being a much stronger team.
Goals have not been plentiful in Southgate's reign. Perhaps unsurprising considering Southgate is a centre-back but his primary focus has been playing a solid formation that allows some fluidity but mainly makes sure England do not concede many goals. If the pace of the games is slow then laying goals could be profitable, if we do open up then backing goals will be very profitbale as I imagine the market will expect low scoring games.
Anyway, lets hope we can make some serious profit trading England this next month and cheer them onto victory whilst doing so!
