Ryan's Trading Advice 5th June
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Good Morning,
Tennis is my main focus again today! We have been flying with the tennis! Just on another note I am looking at bringing a monthly mastermind/Q&A, which will be in the same week of every month and broken into two sections 1) Newbie corner - any member new or old can submit Q's into the admins (they don't have to take credit for them either if they don't want) and these will be answered on the webinar which will also be live and recorded into the members area. Then the second section we shall cover a topic that the group wants assistance on. Let me know your thoughts on this?
Tennis
Frode's WTA-PJH
Couple of you guys asking for what to do with Frode's so here's the post member Frode made in the forum followed by the stats for today.
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:Let both players serve once each.Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.Take profit after backed player goes up.Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.Category
Tournament
Date
Player 1
Player 2
P1 PJH
P2 PJH
Difference
Wta - Singles
French Open
05/06/2018 13:00:00
Putintseva Y.
Keys M.
58.14
62.41
4
Wta - Singles
French Open
05/06/2018 15:00:00
Stephens S.
Kasatkina D.
55.66
57.58
2
Lay player in bold if score is 3-3 / 4-4 1st set
Category
Tournament
Date
Player 1
Player 2
Wta - Singles
French Open
05/06/2018 13:00:00
Putintseva Y.
Keys M.
Atp - Singles
French Open
05/06/2018 14:30:00
Cecchinato M.
Djokovic N.
Wins set 1 loses next game
Category
Tournament
Date
Player 1
Player 2
WS1 LNG %
WS1 LN2G %
Atp - Singles
French Open
05/06/2018 13:00:00
Thiem D.
Zverev A.
50
10
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sharp operators love it . wrapping head around it prob wont ask enough questions . so in the keys match we could potentially be backing her if down a break early and also potentially laying her if 3-3 4-4 ? and if loose first set backing keys to win the match or to potentially green out at desired result ? no immediate reply req on this game just for future ref being on right path and to attempt some automation . cheers nath ……….
