Trading Advice 14th November
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This is an update on my ATP tour finals preview last Friday - Things have gone very well! This is what I said then.
"While I expect Federer to win it his odds offer no value at the moment and after a massive year for both Federer and Nadal I really would not be surprised to see some upsets here. So I will be happy to take them both on as I said above.
If looking for outright market value I think Dimitrov at 12+ is worth a go. He has the easier group and always runs Rafa close, these conditions should suit him far more than Rafa. Goffin at 30+ in that same weaker group is also worth a tickle in my view as he has fought hard to get here and is a good indoor player.
We could get a situation where both finalists come from the same group. In this case I think Zverev could get there and at 11 may also be worth a go here."
So after laying Nadal at 1.3 v Goffin we won that trade/bet for a big profit. All three of my outright tips won here were the odds then vs lowest price matched in the outright market:
Dimitrov was tipped at 12.0 he has traded as low as 4.4 already.
Zverev was tipped at 11.0 he has traded as low as 5.0 already.
Goffin was tipped at 30.0 he has traded as low as 4.0!!! Giving us huge profits across the board.
ENJOY!
Today's match previews:
Roger Federer vs Alex Zverev - I'm going to the final on Sunday and now that Rafa is out I am hoping this is the final! Head to head is 2-2 they have not played on indoor hard. Indoor does tend to suit Roger and he has not lost in his first 6 matches on the surface since coming from the hard court season. Zverev has lost to a couple of big servers already on indoor hard in Haase and Tsonga but he should be fully motivated here. Zverev won their last match easily on hard courts and will feel confident he has a good chance of winning. Federer has been incredible this year and is unlucky not to end the year world number one. Fed loves it here winning this tournament on multiple occasions, this is Zverev's first entry. If ever there was a match you want to watch the start of before trading it is this one, if Zverev does not look overawed or outclassed by Federer then I would lay Fed purely based on how short he is (he can even lose and still go through). Lay first set winner is also a smart play here as Fed would be super short odds so very low risk and if Zverev wins the first set Fed will become a value play around evens.
Marin Cilic v Jack Sock - Sock leads the hth 2-0 both on hard courts in America. Not one for the purists here and I will say straight off the bat that scalping the server should bring profits. Cilic put up a great fight v Zverev and had a big chance to win that match. Cilic for me is a much more talented player but the H2H does worry me here. Sock has been in great indoor form winning the Paris masters to qualify here and he gave Fed a tough second set without ever really troubling him. This could be a close one and again first set winner lay is inplay here.
