Trading Notes 5th May
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Value prices:
German Bundesliga 2.30pm UK time -
Borrusia Moenchengladback v Freiburg
BMG price on Betfair 1.94, Martin's true calculated odds 1.67
Key stats:
- BMG have won 8 drawn 4 and lost 4 at home averaging 1.75 points
- BMG have not lost in 4 at home winning their last 2
- BMG can still qualify for Europe
- Freiburg have won 1 drawn 6 and lost 9 away from home
- Freiburg are under threat of relegation
- Freiburg average less than a goal a game away from home but concede over 2
- Freiburg have not won in 9 away games losing their last 3 on the bounce
BMG look way ahead in this one statistically and if they start strongly a back of them to win or draw no bet at 1.42 makes sense. I do prefer covering the draw here as they both have a fair few this season but if you don't like odds below 1.5 then a back of BMG is fine. If BMG go 1-0 down and Freiburg trade close to odds on I will lay if BMG have been the better side or start to wake up. As ever watch the start to see who looks motivated.
