Trading Notes 28th April
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Not many matches even meet my criteria to research as so many essentially meaningless games at this time of the year, check out my podcast on how I trade the end of season footie here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/podcast
English Premier League -
Swansea v Chelsea
Chelsea Betfair odds 1.51, Martin's true odds 1.85
- Swans average 1.31 points at home
- Chelsea average 1.76 points away from home
- Swans not lost in their last 5 home games winning 4
- Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 away
Chelsea should be favourites here but 1.51 looks short to me. Swansea are fighting for their lives and although their fate may ultimately lie in their next home game v Southampton their recent form at home suggests they will not be pushovers. Add to this how erratic Chelsea have been all season in the league and I think they are layable at this price with a view to trade out later in the match. Make sure Swansea start ok and that Chelsea are not fully firing on all cylinders early doors. Another option is to lay Chelsea a goal up at super short odds for little to no real risk.
