Trading Advice 24th April
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All about Liverpool v Roma tonight in the footballing world so let's look at that match.
Liverpool 1.52, Draw 4.8, Roma 7.4
Liverpool price has been coming in a little since yesterday, not sure if this can continue pre-match.
Liverpool just don't seem to lose at home but they don't win every game not by a long stretch, drawing eight of their 17 home games in the league and two out of five in Europe.
Roma's Champions League away form has been pretty poor their only win is against Karabakh, they drew one and lost the other three.
Roma's league away form is a different story they have only lost once this season away at Juventus.
It is always difficult to predict European games due to the fact their is less common competition data to compare, Liverpool are deserving favourites and expected to win but their are a couple of angles that interest me from a value perspective.
One is a back of the draw at kick-off, 4.8 is quite high when a draw would not be a disaster for either team (we have seen Utd, Chelsea and Spurs all secure draws in the league away to Liverpool). If the match is cagey early on (which semi-finals can be) then the price should come in and we can take a profit or reduce liability. If the game starts lively then we can get out probably for no loss unless an extremely eary goal.
The other option is to lay Liverpool a goal up, we know they love to give up a lead this season and Roma have not been pushovers thus far in the competition. The reason this is worth a go is that if Liverpool go 1-0 up they will probaby trade below 1.2, we don't have to risk much to make a substantial amount if Roma do get level.
I wouldn't be suprised to see Liverpool win 5-0 but I also would not be surprised if this is 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2.
As ever watch the start and the tempo and patterns of play can help you make the right decisions when trading the match.
