Trading Notes 21st April
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Key notes for the day:
Champions League semi-finals mid-week, Liverpool, Roma, Bayern and Madrid could be distracted and rest players today. Odds have been made to be aware of this but if these teams start slow a lay is in order (or a goal up at super short odds).
Some teams are on their holidays already in Europe so make sure your selections still have motivations to win the game.
Prices that look wrong:
Sunderland v Burton
Sunderland odds 1.73 on Betfair, my odds Sunderland 2.50
- Both teams fighting for their lives today
- Burton have 8 more points away from home than Sunderland have at home this season
- Sunderland have won twice at home all season in 21 games
Purely an odds play here (I still have Sunderland as slight favourites but less so than Betfair) and I would want to see that Sunderland do not dominate early on before laying them. Another option is to lay them a goal up as they will be very short odds.
Genclerbirligi v Osmanlispor
Genc odds 2.5 on Betfair, my odds Genc 2.0
- Both teams fighting for their lives today
- Genc have won 6 and lost lost 4 at home (4 draws)
- Osman have won 1 and lost 10 at home (3 draws)
- Genc have a 3.5/1 points ratio at home vs Osman away
- Genc beat Galatasaray at home last time out
Market has this a lot closer than I do and while Genc can be erratic (this is Turkey watch the start or stats before trading!) they look bigger favourites to me. Back Genc draw no bet if they start well or lay Osman if they take a surprise lead.
