Trading Notes 1st April
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Happy Easter everyone! Been a great weekend of football, getting excited about the end of season matches coming up, a lot to be decided in the coming weeks.
Great win for Braga yesterday so a nice profit there.
Russia Premier League:
FC UFA v Zenit St Petersburg -
FC UFA Betfair odds 4.8 (True odds should be 3.5)
- Ufa have won 7 drawn 2 and lost 2 at home
- Zenit have won 4 drawn 7 and lost 1 away
This is purely an odds play as I can't have Zenit at evens here against a team in great form at home. I prefer a lay of Zenit here but the other options are to lay Zenith 1-0 up at short odds on or to back Ufa draw no bet at 3.3, I want the draw on my side here no matter what as Zenit love them! Check Ufa start OK and aren't overrun early.
Turkey Super League:
Goztepe v Kasimpasa -
Goztepe Betfair odds 2.32 (True odds should be 2.0)
- Goztepe have won 6 drawn 4 and lost 2 at home this season
- Kasimpasa have won 2 drawn 3 and lost 7 away from home this season
I can't see why Goztepe are not evens or slight odds on here so I think the value is with them. I prefer to back them draw no bet here at 1.7, the other options is to lay Kasimpasa if they go a goal up, assuming Goztepe start ok.
Cheeky value low risk low odd lays (most of these won't win but we don't need a high strike rate to profit):
Lay Feyenoord at 1.3 (True odds should be 1.5) - Excelsior are no pushovers away from home winning 8 of their 14 away from home. Feyenoord have a similar record at home winning 8 of 14 so they look a little overrated here.
Lay Ajax at 1.27 (True odds should be 1.4) - Gronigen have only lost twice at home this season, Ajax should win but this is very short.
Lay 0-0 or the Draw at HT if 0-0 (5 shots on target and 5 shots off target minimum):
Heracles v Heerenveen
Goztepe v Kasimpasa
