Trading Notes 3rd March
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Nice winner yesterday to round off a good week on these.
Be careful trading today, check the weather for the match you are trading.
Football:
Lay the draw or the current scoreline at HT if drawing.
Set and forget strategy: For those who cannot trade inplay (not tested this other than yesterday so could be more risky not backing it up with in play stats) - Lay under 0.5 goals at the same odds that under 1.5 goals are prematch. So if under 1.5 goals is 4.0 prematch lay under 0.5 goals at 4.0 and select keep in play (this is a good way to predict the HT odds). If the 1.5 market is not fully liquid but still fairly liquid (say back column is 3.5 and lay column is 4.0) then lay the midpoint (in this case 3.75).
Prematch and Inplay Strategy (Less selections but had a very good strike rate this year) - Including in play stats rules: 5+ shots on target, 5+ shots off target and 5+ corners. You can combine the shots on target with off to make 10 but you must have at least 5 on target. So, for example, 10 on target and 0 off target would qualify but 0 on target and 10 off would not. I will try not to include games where SH goal odds will be ridiculously low, like Barcelona and Man City games etc.
Selections:
Spain:
Sevilla v Atletic Bilbao
Germany:
Leipzig v Dortmund, Wolfsburg v Leverkusen, Augsburg v Hoffenheim, Frankfurt v Hannover
Lower league picks (only one week of testing done so your call if you follow)
Belgium:
Beveren v Genk
Germany:
Holstein Kiel v Duisburg
Italy:
Frosinone v Novara
Turkey:
Kasimpasa v Osmanlispor
