Trading Notes 25th February
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Football:
Smashed it yesterday all 7 games that were drawing had a second half goal (6 out of the 7 had 2 goals!). I couldn't check in play stats but 3/3 I think was on the ones that passed the inplay stats test.
Lay the draw or the current scoreline at HT if drawing.
Set and forget strategy: For those who cannot trade inplay (not tested this other than yesterday so could be more risky not backing it up with in play stats) - Lay under 0.5 goals at the same odds that under 1.5 goals are prematch. So if under 1.5 goals is 4.0 prematch lay under 0.5 goals at 4.0 and select keep in play (this is a good way to predict the HT odds). If the 1.5 market is not fully liquid but still fairly liquid (say back column is 3.5 and lay column is 4.0) then lay the midpoint (in this case 3.75).
Prematch and Inplay Strategy (Less selections but had a very good strike rate this year) - Including in play stats rules: 5+ shots on target, 5+ shots off target and 5+ corners. You can combine the shots on target with off to make 10 but you must have at least 5 on target. So, for example, 10 on target and 0 off target would qualify but 0 on target and 10 off would not. I will try not to include games where SH goal odds will be ridiculously low, like Barcelona and Man City games etc.
Selections:
Italy
- Sampdoria v Udinese
- Roma v AC Milan
France
- Bordeaux v Nice
Germany
- Leverkusen v Schalke
- RB Leipzig v FC Koln
Turkey
- Goztepe v Sivasspor
