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Martin

17th February

Football Trading Notes

We had a lovely sub 1.3 lay winner yesterday, lets hope for another good day today!

La Liga Spain:

Las Palmas v Sevilla

Betfair odds Sevilla - 2.08

Martin's odds Sevilla - 2.5

Las Palmas have won 4 drawn 1 and lost 6 of their home games this season.
Las Palmas have only lost once in the last 4 though which includes an impressive win against high flying Valencia.
Sevilla have lost 7 of their last 9 away games including a 5-1 thrashing from Eibar last time out.

Las Palmas are in a relegation dogfight and will need their home form to stay strong for the rest of the season to have any chance of staying up. They will be fully motivated here today against a Sevilla side that blow hot or cold. Sevilla's away form is the reason they aren't closer to the Champions League spots. If they don't turn up today then this will be a very tough game for them in Gran Canaria.

Sevilla are shorter odds than I would give here, this could be based purely on their recent successes as a club but does not reflect their current form. As ever it is vital to watch the first couple of minutes here to see how the teams look (Sevilla have the potential to run very hot on their day still), if Las Palmas look OK then a draw not bet back of them is potentially a good move at 2.7+. Another potential angle is to lay Sevilla if they take the lead at short odds for very low risk.

Alaves v Deportivo

Betfair odds Alaves - 1.93

Martin's odds Alaves - 1.67

Alaves are in great form having won 3 of their last 4 home games drawing the other one.
Deportivo have only won once away from home all season, losing 3 of their last 4 to a hefty 17-2 scoreline combined.

Alaves have a decent cushion now to the relegation zone, so motivation may not be as strong as it could be but winning breeds confidence and you would still expect them to show up strong today. Despite Deportivo's awful away form they are only 3 points off 17th place, they will be desperate to get a win against one of the relegation fighting rivals.

Alaves look a strong pick here even at their current odds, for those who don't mind a little more risk in terms of lower odds and more liability the 1.4+ draw no bet on Alaves looks appealing. Again, of Alaves fall behind and Deportivo trade at odds on then a lay of Depor could be a good play. As ever it is vital to watch the opening exchanges to check that Alaves are fully motivated.

Holland - Erdivisie:

Ado Den Haag v Willem II

Den Haag Betfair odds - 2.08

Den Haag Martin's odds - 1.8

Den Haag have won 3 of 4 at home drawing the other
Willem have lost 3 of their last 4 away drawing the other
Willem have not won away in the league since October

Den Haag are well clear of the relegation scrap at the moment and Willem are very much in it. Den Haag do still have distant European football dreams though so hopefully are motivated today.

Den Haag look strong favourites here on recent form. Draw no bet at 1.5 looks a good price here if Den Haag start well. If Willem trade at odds on at any stage then they could be a good lay opportunity.

Turkey - Super League:

Sivasspor v Osmanlispor

Sivasspor Betfair odds - 2.1

Sivasspor Martin's odds - 1.5

Sivasspor have won 3 of their last 4 home games drawing the other
Siva beat the top 3 teams in the league (Galatasaray, Besiktas and Basaksehir) during that run
Osmanlispor have not won away this season drawing twice and losing 8 of their 10 games

This is the biggest odds descrepancy of the day for me today. I have Sivasspor as much strong favourites than Betfair does, they have been in red hot form at home and their opponents have a 0% win rate away from home. If Sivasspor start OK then the draw no bet at 1.5+ looks a good price. The only slight concern is that Osman are in a relegation scrap and will be fighting for their lives but Sivasspor still have an outside chance of Euro qualification given the run they are on.

Tennis Trading Notes

Nice green on the lay first set winner yesterday in the Mayer v Monfils match.

ATP Tour

Buenos Aires Semi-Final

Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils -

Thiem Betfair Odds - 1.52

Thiem Martin's odds - 1.33

Thiem leads the head to head 4-0 including once on clay
Thiem is one of the top players on clay and loves in in South America where he really broke through last year
Monfils blows hot and cold and is very inconsistent
Thiem is ranked 37 places ahead on Monfils as the world number 6 currently

Thiem is a beast on clay and if he is at the races today there is only one winner. The head to head is hard to ignore and Thiem is a much better player than when they last met a year ago. Monfils's career is on the decline and his lowly 43 world ranking confirms that, he can raise his game against the top players though and there is still some concern he can win here but at the current odds Thiem looks a value play.

Cricket Trading Notes

T20 International - Hamilton 6am GMT 18th Feb

New Zealand v England

New Zealand won last time out after scoring 196 but only by 12 runs
Not many T20's are played here but looking at the last result a couple of years ago 200 could be a required score to win
Both teams are very strong at batting and weaker at bowling
On that basis another high scorer could be on the cards
England have lost all 3 T20's in this series so far

T20 International - Sylhet 11am GMT 18th Feb

Bangladesh v Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka lead this series 1-0 as they chased 193 with absolute ease
These teams seem to score big or get bowled out cheap
First T20i in 4 years and amazingly Bangladesh or Sri Lanka have not played a T20i here
Watching the early exchanges key with pitch and ground here