Football Trading Advice 20th January

Martin

English Premier League:

Everton 2.32 v WBA 3.85

Everton have lost their last 3 games but only one was a home a 2-0 loss to Manchester United. They have won 6 of their 11 home games this season, a 55% win rate.

West Brom have been dreadful away from home winning 1 of 11 away games, a 9% win rate.

Allardyce is a much better manager than Pardew and Everton have a much better squad than WBA in my opinion.

I would have priced Everton at 2.0 here maybe even slight odds on. So if they start ok I will back them draw no bet (you can lay WBA but I don't like laying above 3.0 on these). If WBA take the lead I would lay them if Everton were on top or started playing better since they went a goal behind.

Spanish La Liga -

Espanol 3.0 v Sevilla 2.64

Espanol have won 5 of their 10 home games losing 3 and drawing 2 for a 50% win rate. Espanol have not lost in their last 4 league games, including an impressive win against Atletico Madrid.

Sevilla have won 3 of their home games losing the other 7 for a 30% win rate. Sevilla have not won in 5 league games, which included playing lower teams such as Real Betis, Alaves and Levante.

I would have the odds flipped here and have Espanol at 2.5ish, so a back of them draw no bet or a lay of Sevilla if Espanol start solidly looks the value play here. A lay at 0-1 is also an option as Sevilla concede an average of 2 goal away from home.

Portugal Premeira Liga -

Maritimo 2.44 v Belenenses 3.55

Maritimo have won 6/9 home games only losing once with a 66% win rate. They have lost just one home game in the league in the past year, which was last time out vs Chaves.

Belenenses have won 1/9 away games losing 7 of the other 8 for an 11% win rate. Belenenses have not won a league match since October.

I would have priced Maritimo shorter here around 2.0, so I see value in backing them draw no bet if they start well. Beware the new manager factor as Belenenses have a new head coach, as with all trades it is important to monitor a live video feed or trustworthy live stats feed, in this case it's importance is even more paramount.

English Championship -

Leeds 2.32 v Millwall 3.7

Leeds have won 6/13 home games this season, drawing 4 and losing 3, a 46% win rate.

Millwall have yet to win away losing 7 of the 13 games for a 0% win rate.

I would have Leeds at 1.8-1.9 here so that is where I see the value, I will back them draw no bet if they start ok. Laying Millwall a goal up at odds on will also be an option if Leeds are on top.

Martin

@geoffrey-comben said in Football Trading Advice 20th January:

Hi Martin

I would be interested in knowing how you traded the Espanyol-Sevilla game. There was a goal for Sevilla after 15 minutes. What was your strategy then? There was another Sevilla goal after 34 minutes. Did you get out of the trade at this point or adjust your strategy then?
Thanks
Geoff

Layed at 0-1 and took the loss at 0-2

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Hi Martin

I would be interested in knowing how you traded the Espanyol-Sevilla game. There was a goal for Sevilla after 15 minutes. What was your strategy then? There was another Sevilla goal after 34 minutes. Did you get out of the trade at this point or adjust your strategy then?
Thanks
Geoff

Martin

@geoffrey-comben Bet365 usually the best for video and stats.

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Thanks Martin. A really useful analysis for a newbie like me. I can see the research that is necessary to identify possible trades and to have a plan for these games. Any tips on where to find live video feeds?
Regards
Geoff