New member
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Who you are? Doug
Where you are from? Near Milton keynes
What stage are you at in your trading journey.
Beginner in all honesty, stupidly in all honesty I never even thought about the small gains and trading out I always used sports book side...What's your background? I'm a plasterer, painter and decorator ( honestly Martin and Ryan everytime I see your office walls in the background I feel I need to skim them.....the green walls are special).
Why did you join BTC? More for football but some of the other sport strategies on the site are awesome some horse one's are genius, I wanted to get into Tennis over spring/summer and normal top 5 leagues football in season
What do you hope to get from the community?
Bit of structure but unfortunately it's opened pandoras box with lots going on on here, I mean I dabbled on cricket the other day following the thread and made more money in 2 trades than I had in ages on football....What are some of your trading goals...
Im tight spending money on myself and use it on my family butl in all honesty I want To earn enough money to pay for the subscription fee and enjoy making some trades work. I work 6/7 day weeks I'd like to earn money from sport which I enjoy if I can turn learn and turn £200 into £2000, and when we can fly again I won't sweat about the compulsory bloody 20% tips in Florida anymore...
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@doug-sharp No worries, always here to help.
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@Dan-MacKinnon @Chris-Osborne @Simji @Ryan
Massively helpful thorough replies there guys , lots to think on and watch whilst learning thankyou.
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@doug-sharp I agree with what @Simji has said. You need to be really disciplined and trust the system.
U2.5G tends to have the most liquidity, so stay clear of any markets that are less than say £20k matched. For it to work you need a bit of movement. I also found odds above 2.7 were quite risky because the likelihood of an early goal is quite high. Odds below 1.9 don't tend to move as much so you won't be getting the most from it. Most of mine tend to be between 2.2-1.9.
I'm in no way an expert and happy to be corrected but the strategy I use was looking for games with very few goals at HT. I would back u2.5G and aim to get out by 20 minutes or 25% return on my original stake, whichever came first. If you're not getting 25% back by 20 minutes you need to get out because there's no movement. If you're not showing any profit by 10 minutes it often means a goal is coming so get out. If 1 goal goes in before 20mins then I let it run to HT which often removed any liability. If there's 2 goals before HT I move on and let it run as a bet. You'll be surprised how many games have 2 FH goals and finish 2-0. Hopefully that makes sense? I'll send you my filter and results if you like?
You can scalp any of those unders markets. The u0.5 gives you the biggest potential return but also the biggest risk. The higher up you go the lower the return by the lower the risk. I saw somewhere on here once that someone did it with the U3.5G market. The idea is to get in and out quick so you might only be taking 5-10% of your stake. It just means one bad game and it's potentially undone the 10 previous games. If you know you're going to get out quick then set the exit point and wait for it to hit. I sometimes do that and then treat the few pennies as a "free bet" and go onto the sportsbook. I find that helps with the FOMO especially during stuff like the Euros when you don't want to be risking a lot of liability when it's just a bit of fun.
Sorry for the essay!
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@doug-sharp for tennis just starting I would either look at Laying the first set winner if favourite loses the first set but be careful on motivation. Should be alright for Wimbledon next week but regular events top players sometimes go through the motions or the Projected Holds strategy of @Ryan's which I briefly ran through in one of the tennis threads last week.
Pick and choose your games I wouldn't automatically lay the first set winner but if comeback stats in your favour such as 2nd set break stats and Lost 1st set won 2nd then usually worth a trade, you can easily get out if goes against you. I'd always be looking to lay the player you are opposing rather than backing the favourite due to reduced liability but whatever you do if you get the break in your favour initially cash out but at the very minimum remove your liability.
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I've done alot of unders trading but also got burnt alot on it.
Got to stay discipline. And say have a plan if your going to get out if there is a goal or stay in the x amount of time. Normally I've let it run for 20 minutes and brought out a percentage of your stake at intervals. So like 25% every 5 mins etc if no goal after 20 could take liability out and let it run if the match doesn't look lively. Or take the green and move on.
I've also tried getting in straight after a goal for 5-10 minutes to take make use of the market reaction but a quick goal after one has been scored could show around 75% red if that happens
The market loves goals so one goal can seriously make the market react against you and take average 25-30 minutes to get the odds back to where they were
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@dan-mackinnon trade the unders I was looking at.... wish I'd stayed in on the England vs Scotland game....but emotion got the better of me...
With your knowledge of unders,
Obviously more reward/risk u 0.5 as a goal wipes it out. More gambling than trading1.Did you know wether it's better trading to trade u2.5 as less of a bank loss if a goal is scored?
- Scalping the over and unders???? Is that the same as 1point ew ie Ryans Scalping the favourite....
Or are you just always moving in and out laying and backing as the time increases to secure profit ..hope that make sense cheers
- Scalping the over and unders???? Is that the same as 1point ew ie Ryans Scalping the favourite....
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@doug-sharp Something like this would work to start
Overall > Average > First Goal Time > Greater than 15 mins
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@doug-sharp I've traded the unders market and my advice would be to get a good understanding of what SR you need. Are you trying to scalp the unders market or trade it? Either way, you're going to get more winners than losers, but you will definitely be on the sharp end of some trades!
Another tip with unders, assuming you've done your research correctly, there is always more time than you think. Yes you can get in and out within 10 minutes, but if you track the results you might find that you could have stayed in until 20 minutes and double your return.
Hopefully that's got you thinking, but if you want to talk more about anything let me know.
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Strategies so far before I joined the BTC were for football mainly 1.5 overs and 2.5 over goals but I was never sure of reward risk ratio of the stake x profit diminishing over time, which was better to concentrate on.?
I also would lay weaker team if they scored 1st.Since joining I've had a go at the Strategies that have been profitable for members from the info emails.
I'd like to use the software to find games with goals expected but not in first avg 12 to mins and try unders when main leagues are back.
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@doug-sharp lovely so now we have football at tennis as sports, we just need to get strategies for them
What strategies have you tried? What type of trading do you like? You only need one for each sport to start.
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@doug-sharp said in New member:
I am/was a stay at home dad Bringing up my children and working around them and school, they are teenagers now and don’t want looking after as much so during school holidays I’ll be able to watch tennis and try trading that..
I look forward to these days myself! Only 13 years to wait
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@ryan I’m used to football and more confident in trading it as there’s a lot more of it On around the evenings where I can pay more attention.
I am/was a stay at home dad Bringing up my children and working around them and school, they are teenagers now and don’t want looking after as much so during school holidays I’ll be able to watch tennis and try trading that..
I’ll be having a look at the horse stats software aswell as I like to back to lay £2 stakes for free bets if they green up...
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Hey buddy,
Love the comments on the walls, think it’s great those lol they are on the way to getting finished now - I promise as well the new green walls are gone.
There is a lot going on here but I am here to help you get clarity, so how come you decided football to trade is that because you can fit that around your life and work?
Welcome to the comment!
