Introduce Yourself to the Community
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@lewis-mitchell I don’t have anything built on the stats as of yet as a lot of it comes from my knowledge of how players start and then I match them up that way then start to delve in.
There’s a really good strategy that one of the members used as well
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum
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@ryan Great stuff. The stats software looks really impressive and has already helped me to find value selections on the U2.5 markets to scalp in the opening 5-10 mins.
Re. 1st set tennis trading - do you use a filter to pinpoint potential matches for this strategy?
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@lewis-mitchell Nice!
I think you'll pick it up nicely again then, happy to help and answer any Q's on the tennis matey.
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@ryan said in Introduce Yourself to the Community:
@lewis-mitchell Nice to have you!! What sports did you trade before?
Morning Ryan
Thanks for the welcome. I almost exclusively traded football - often pre-match trading and a little bit of in-play scalping. Looking to return to that kind of arena, with potentially a focus on Tennis (intrigued by your approach to backing and finding 1st set winners).
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@lewis-mitchell Nice to have you!! What sports did you trade before?
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@lewis-mitchell cos there is no data to support int football so its a shot in the dark, abiout 5 or 6 at the mo, 3 pro ones and 3 of my own
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@nick-allan I don't know many people that enjoy the international fortnight! Thankfully we get some action again from tomorrow. What strats are you typically employing on the footy ATM?
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@lewis-mitchell good buddy just waiting for the winter leagues to start up again after the international break, bloody pain in the arse that it is
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@nick-allan How's it going, Nick? Thanks for the welcome!
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@lewis-mitchell hi lewis
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Who you are? Lewis Mitchell
Where you are from? Suffolk
What stage are you at in your trading journey? Looking to find new strategies/angles applicable to the markets in 2021 as conscious markets have evolved since I last traded.
What's your background? Traded semi-professionally 5+ years ago with some degree of success. Now work freelance and with a young family, looking to generate at least a second income once more.
Why did you join BTC? Filters/Ratings & being part of a community.
What do you hope to get from the community? Inspiration, advice and some friendly banter along the way.
What are some of your trading goals? Long-term profitability. -
@paul-benstead-0 Rrrr yes! This was a good one
I enjoyed making this video actually! -
And your #1, 2 and 3 Profitable Betfair Trading Football Strategy vids.
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@paul-benstead-0 welcome back! Great to have you back here, which videos did you se that sparked you to come back?
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Hi,
I'm Paul from Hull.
Was a member a few years ago but not successful. I only used my own strats so that's maybe why lol. Recently viewed Ryans vids and they indicated some strats that have proven to be successful over the long term, so I'm back.
Already doing a bit of trading with some success on footy and want to add to that.
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@ryan said in [Introduce Yourself to the Community
Who you are?Dave
Where you are from?Blackpool
What stage are you at in your trading journey?new to it all a friend from work is showing me the ropes
What's your background? General Work
Why did you join BTC? My mate Martin
What do you hope to get from the community? Help and information to become a good trader
What are some of your trading goals? Extra cash -
@ernest-steel welcome!
