New Member - Sipox11
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Hi guys!
Nice to meet you all. I was looking for a great forum community to discuss football trading and finally it seems that I found it
Who am I?
My name is Jose (Sipox11 for all online related endeavours), from Spain, 30 years old. I'm an engineer, full stack front end developer and the CEO of my own tech startup for the past 5 years. I also do software development & cloud infrastructure freelancing on the side occasionally for projects that I really like, i love building things from scratch.
Since my first year of university, me and my friends there developed a huge interest in all gambling related areas. We played online poker, online betting, some betfair trading (back in the day where nothing was regulated), strategies to beat casino roulettes... we tried it all. So many stories from those days.
As years went by, I started studying online poker more seriously and went pro for 3 years, until I decided to travel back home to start my startup. Online poker was great, but the ecosystem was slowly dying, at least the way I had known it, so I stopped seeing future profit potential for me and decided it was time to do something different.
Where am I from?
Spain, where Betfair is not available (only .es with restricted ridiculous liquidity). So I had to open an account on Orbit Exchange through BetInAsia broker in order to properly be able to have a shot at trading.
What stage are you at in your trading journey?
I recently picked up my interest in sports betting and trading. I've been value betting on soft bookies since the beginning of 2021, with an EV ROI of 3.2% after 2.5k bets, which is nice, though I find variance to be extremely sick. Even sicker than in online poker, which was fearsome on itself. I am right now 3k euro below my expected value, but at least I have a strong mindset and mathematical understanding of variance that helps me push through downswings and avoid quitting or doing silly stuff (I did my fair share of that when I was 20, I can't even remember how many small poker bankrolls / trading bankrolls I burnt through). Apart from its dreadful variance, my worry is that value betting on the softs is not forever, since the bookies keep gubbing winning players left and right, so I estimate I have about 10 more months of profit potential out of it.
Also, I cannot really increase my EV ROI with value betting since the opportunities arise themselves and I just take them, it's not on my hand to create them.
So that's when I decided to get back into trading. I have never done it professionally, I just tried it back in the day so I was familiar with the concepts already. Trading allows me to increases my ROI if I improve my own skill, and allows me to keep increasing my trade sizes as long as liquidity allows it. I am honestly quite worried about the so called Premium Charge, I was not aware of this concept until a few days ago, and I find it ridiculous.
I started consuming all available trading material I could find, I purchased one course, tried a few tools and developed my own spreadsheets to plan and execute my trades. After a few weeks, I now have a solid starting point from which to build upon. I've placed my first few trades and learnt so much from each of them. The more I learn the more I realize how much I don't know yet.
Why did you join BTC?
The main reason is because I was actively looking for a good community in which to discuss, analyze, share and learn among other traders alike. In my poker career, PokerStrategy forum was the key to my success, so I know the value of being able to keep a public journal of your journey, being able to publicly ask doubts, analysis about trades, ideas to tweak our strategies, etc.
What do you hope to get from the community?
Any online profession or hobby has the benefit of freedom, but also the defect of it being a solitary job. I have confidence in the decisions I made, but if they're based on wrong hypothesis, then I would never find out. That's why I hope I can share and get value from this community, keeping a record of what I do and my thought process and expose it to other ways of thinking, so that we can all learn a bit more, analyze trades better and become more profitable eventually. I was thinking of starting a Youtube channel to keep track of my journey, but I think I'll start a thread here first and then decide.
What are some of your trading goals?
My main goal is to be able to reach a sustainable 10%+ ROI (over the last 6 months) by the end of December 2022. I know that my starting point should be over -3% ROI (since Orbit fee is 3% and markets are sharp enough to assume that if I was to bet blindly, I would be more or less breakeven minus Orbit fee). So since that's my starting point, the way I see it, if I manage to apply a consistent and methodic trading strategy and each week improve something about it, eventually I'll be able to increase my ROI and reach the 10%+ level. Bit by bit.
I started with a 5k euro bankroll, which is shared with Value Betting. I'm risking 0.5%-1% per trade. I know it's highly recommended to paper test strategies first, but I think paper trading doesn't provide as much experience as necessary. When the trade is live and the profit/loss is real, situations arise (mental state, cashout option disappears, not one but two goals in a row come, the computer freezes, you misclick somewhere... etc.) which make actual results much different that what you can get on paper without risking money. If my current ROI was indeed -3%, then it'll take me 35k euro in turnover (700 trades) to drop 20% of my bankroll. I'm happy to drop 20% of it if it's a learning investment. As long as a strong bankroll management is in place, I know I'm never gonna blow my BR and it is big enough to absorb huge downswings and learning mistakes.
With value betting I've suffered +/- 2k downswings in not so long periods of time, and my BR was always protected.
I want to achieve that goal because if I do, I can potentially scale that ROI with a larger bankroll as it keeps growing. Also, I truly enjoy the math side of it, the challenge. I see every match as a puzzle, where I need to find the right pieces, see where they fit together and decided if it's worth placing a trade on, with what strategy, what entry point, exit point, etc.
I set the goal for almost two years because I know it's hard to ever know your true ROI, you can only have a guess at it with a certain % of confidence after having placed many many trades. But I should be able to see the impact of new findings on my ROI as months go by. I'm no really focused in a monthly profit goal, since that is derived from my volume and ROI. So I want to keep improving my skill every week, while keeping a consistent weekly volume of trades.
I have no intention of becoming a 100% full time trader, nor living off this. I already did that with poker and I know the bad sides of it. I see it as an active way of investing some of my money where with skill I may have a chance of earning ROIs that nowhere else can be found.
I do have the intention of generating more money every month with this than I do with my current job though
And if I do achieve a 10% ROI over turnover, it'll be just a matter of time. But still, it'll be another source of income, not the main one even if it becomes the largest.====
It ended up being a way too long post. I was gonna keep all this for my journey entry page, but here it is
I'm really looking forward to becoming active on this community and learning as much as I can.Cheers!
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@sipox11 I've thought this is a cracking idea for years!!! Parking is a nightmare, that's a great idea!
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Thanks guys
It's called Parkifast, we built an app that is able to transparently detect when our users unpark their cars, so that joining all the information on real time from all our users and partners we are able to have a real time database of empty on-street parking spaces in any given city where we are operating in (so far in a few spanish cities, but we have more users in Madrid).
So with the app, with just one click, our users can find the nearest on-street parking space as fast as possible, instead of going in circles for 10-30 minutes. Parking really is a pain
Thanks again for the kind welcome, I will create my blog thread soon to properly document my journey and my findings. Let's see where it takes me.
Have a great week!
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Wow that is a long post! amazing back story though and great that you put so much Into this post.
Whats the tech start up?
I really like how clear you are with your goals, you don't want to do this full time and see it as an investment that's wicked and knowing that will help as well going forward - I think knowing where you want to go with this is one of the keys to success in trading.
