Mark new member
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Hello all
Pleased to be here .. I'm Mark.
Very much an amateur been interested in trading for a couple of years and wanting to learn to see if I can make a go of it .. looking forward to learning from the expertise on here and already absorbed by the education ... hoping to get the confidence in a strategy or two to pursue it a bit more seriously, learn how and when to exit and to have the skillset to try and gradually grow a bankroll
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@mark-maguire good point about managers, hadn't thought of that.
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@martin-futter Hi Martin - yes I definitely think I can use some of the chats I have when I've developed. credible strategy, and equally I think my knowledge of managers and how they set their teams up as well as the changing face of things in the lower leagues which will start to filter up.. clubs that are well run with good people in place will gradually replace some of the more famous and established clubs.. and I think some of those clubs will be underestimated for a while to come.
I think the REALLY important things is who is giving you the information .. I worked with one manager who was telling me we would be the fittest in the league because we were doing the most distance, 3k per match up on the previous season, yet we were looking knackered and conceding late goals.. the next guy comes in and shows me that they have been jogging the majority of that distance .. increases the intensity, then after a transition where we pick ups injuries because of the loading we start to be the team scoring late goals and keeping clean sheets..
Going forward keeping those contacts and conversations going I hope will be a help.. and stuff that when I have worked out how its useful cn share on here ..
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@ryan-carruthers I would be more than happy to chat at some point and to look at doing the podcast.
I'm working through the BTC academy lessons at the moment and hope thats I can start to refine some ideas after that.. then if I can things by you that would be amazingly helpful thank you.
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@mark-maguire I wonder how you can use your contacts as an edge, not in any underhanded way but more as in you may hear about teams news etc earlier than others.
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@mark-maguire I would LOVE to chat with you about this on the podcast if you would be game? I think in terms of trading and match reading this is solid and its setting you up in a way that is going to be incredibly powerful for your trading.
I'm more than happy to help get a strategy nailed down when you've lined up the way you like and want to trade.
I agree on Dunn, thought he was going to be solid. I remember a friend telling me how he was really scaling up his trading and was based in Stamford I think these days.
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@ryan-carruthers .. interesting re David Dunn, in fact I thought he was going to make a really good manager and was a tad unlucky I think so good to hear.
The stats .. where to start... it was amazing the difference between managers and their use of stats and then when I worked with a really good one seeing the reality behind some of the performance stats and their direct impact on results.
Brentford have used it for recruitment and to short list players as you will be aware .. and I took a lot of interest in that, but equally looking at some of the detailed post game stats as well as getting to know the different training methods of managers and seeing the impact they can have on teams as well as understanding what good value is in terms of recruitment and how that affects a teams chances.
Equally knowing different managers approaches and how recruitment will succeed or fail for them.. one manager for instance can only work with younger players because he likes to boss, dare I say bully them and whenever he has been paired with senior players its only a matter of time before theres a fall out.. and thats started to happen over the last couple of weeks at his club.
The performance stuff can be confused by things like distance run.. a team can have done an average of say 13k in a game and everyone can say for a lower league thats good.. the distance should be greater higher up the leagues ... but that can be a deceiving stat .. its about the percentage of that distance thats been done at a certain intensity for example.. then if a team has done big distance with high intensity for a couple off big games on the trot they almost inevitably have to alter their game plan if they have another big game within a short space of time.. I was speaking with a current manager about that this morning and he changed his tactics (successfully) for the third of their Christmas games because he knew players would break down .. so for games one and two they were pressing , game three they planned to press first half and sit back second half.
Its interesting stuff but I've got to learn how to use it.. in terms of entering I really havent nailed a strategy yet .. I have gone in pre game, at kick off and then since I started following some stuff on here letting games go in play but I have a lot more reading to do before I have anything like a proper strategy.
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That's amazing!!! Really? That makes sense, I know David Dunn is a top trader on Betfair now after leaving the game.
What impact did the stats have when you were looking at them? (I've been a huge advocate of stats in trading) so great to hear from somebody in the game who used stats.
What is the current process of deciding when you will enter?
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Ryan
I have been CEO of different clubs and worked in every division apart from the PL .. so Championship, Div One, Two and National League. Left a club because of Covid and currently fulfilling consultancy roles outside of the game. I have a couple of offers potentially to get back into the game which may affect my trading .. against FA rules I think to trade .. certainly is to bet on football, so may have to switch sports.
During my time in the game I studied a lot the impact of stats on teams performances and followed with interest clubs like Brentford.
The naivety bit is that I've done a fair bit of analysis for example of games in the 2.5 goals market, and naively thought it was about laying or betting those, I was takin data from three or four sources and shortlisting max ten games with an 80% success rate over a couple of months but in terms of entering the market, exiting the market, looking at favourable offs and value .. clueless.
Even a couple of days on here have started to clear some clouds and confidence has also been an issue.. only worked with tiny stakes while I've been trying to learn but feel like its something I can make a go of.
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@mark-maguire Wicked
What did you do or still do in football?
How come naively?
Let's get you firing! -
Hi Ryan
Great content from what I have seen so far.
I have a big interest in football and worked in it for a few years. I've been trying to analyse various markets and using stats data but a little naively I think.
I've got a depth of knowledge of some leagues and want to explore that to start with then down the line maybe some other sports - horses for sure because again I tried to analyse that a little but focus on football to start.
Mark
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Welcome Mark, great to have you here
Looking forward to working with you.Which sport do you like to trade?
