Trading Advice 26th November
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Trading notes on specific matches that take my interest. Treat these as a guideline for your own trading and as ever do your own further research before deciding what trades to make.
IMPORTANT: Trading is a fluid process and as such we are not too worried about the final result on these as we will want to get out long before the final whistle. Like on cricket trading if I can drip liability out or green up for a good profit, then I usually do so.
26th November:
English Premier League -
Burnley v Arsenal -
Burnley have won three drawn two and lost one home games this season. Scoring a miserly 0.83 goals on average and conceding a solid 0.33 goals per game. They have 11 points at home in 6 games and have not lost in their last four at Turf Moor.
Arsenal have won one drawn one and lost four of their away games this season. Scoring an OK 1.17 goals on average but conceding a massive 2.0 goals on average. They only have 4 points from their 6 away games.
It is worth noting that Arsenal have had a tougher schedule than Burnley at this point, playing Man City and Chelsea away. However, from a value perspective I cannot have them at 1.59 to win away from home at the moment. This is not to say they will not win but rather that the value here is with Burnley. I would lay Arsenal if they do not look vastly superior in the opening few minutes. You could back Burnley if you wanted a really low liability around 6.0 but as ever I like to have the draw on my side. If Arsenal do not start well their price will drift and if they are not winning after 20mins-HT a good profit should be available.Huddersfield v Manchester City -
Huddersfield have won three drawn two and lost one home game this season, scoring 0.83 goals a game average and conceding 1.0. They have 11 points from their 6 games.
Man City have been smashing it out of the park winning all 6 of their away games, 18 points, scoring 2.67 and conceding 0.50 on average.
Man City are a very superior team in this one but Huddersfield are no mugs at home, they beat Man Utd recently and followed that up with another win against WBA.
The only reason this interests me is the price, I cannot have a team at 1.2 playing away from home in the Premier League. Man City have had a couple of close games recently against Leicester and Feyenoord, there is no guarantee they will score early.
If Man City do not look well on top in the first couple of minutes then I will lay them and take the trade from there. I expect them to win but this price is so short that I have to be on it.Serie A -
Genoa v Roma -
Genoa have not won at home in six games drawing once and losing five times. Scoring an average of 1.17 and conceding 2.33.
Roma have won all five of their away matches this season, scoring a huge 2.4 goals a games and conceding only 0.4.
It is hard to see past Roma here and even at 1.71 their price looks reasonable to me. If the price gets much bigger I would be very interested around evens. Even better if they went 1-0 down I would lay Genoa. Watch the first few minutes and if Roma are on top then I will back them.La Liga -
Villareal v Sevilla -
Villareal have won four and draw one of their five home games this season. Scoring an impressive 2.4 goals per game and only conceding once in those five games. Villareal have won their last three home games in a row.
Sevilla have won two out of six away games, losing the other four. Scoring 0.5 goals a game and conceding 1.5 goals per game. Sevilla have lost their last four away games in a row.
Sevilla have had the tougher strength of schedule but even so this is not the same team we have seen do really well in the league (without the big three!) in recent years. Sevilla had a tough comeback against Liverpool midweek and that may have also taken some energy out of them. Villareal went to Astana which is not an easy trip and could feel the effects of that today.
If the long midweek trip has not tired Villareal out I like them here and if they look ok in the first few minutes and come out strongly I will lay Sevilla (you can also back Villareal draw no bet if you wish) and take the trade from there. If Sevilla started to dominate I would get straight out of the trade.Valencia v Barcelona -
Valencia and Barcelona both have 16 points from their 6 home and away games respectively. Valencia average 2.67 goals to Barcelona's 2.17, they both concede 0.33 on average.
About as even as it gets here, but hey it's Barcelona! So reputation must put them odds on. I have them as favourites but above evens so 1.7ish is a lay for me if Valencia start well and are not overawed by the big names across from them on the pitch. You could back Valencia too at 6+ if you wished but as I always say I like to have the draw on my side. If Barcelona do not start well their price will drift and if they are not winning after 20mins-HT a good profit should be available.Ligue 1 -
Monaco v PSG -
Monaco have won five of their six home games drawing the other. PSG have won four out of six away from home, drawing the other two. Monaco scored 3.5 compared to PSG's 2.83, both conceded 0.67 goals on average. Much like the game above in Spain very similar form for both teams but the Neymar factor has kicked in so big that PSG are 1.5 odds away from home. This is a lay for me if Monaco start well and don't like engulfed by PSG's star names. If PSG do not start well their price will drift and if they are not winning after 20mins-HT a good profit should be available.
