BTC Daily Trading Advice - 16th October
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Update: Gary's Second Half Goal Filter is performing exceptionally well 86.79% of his selections have at least one second half goal. Due to popular demand from members, I am adding them to the email today.
A thread on the forum all members should be checking out is Lee's Second Half Goal one, some outstanding work on there! https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2145/sh-goal-filters
Onto todays picks:
Below are our trading selections for today, please read this document before you enter any trade: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
Our Master results sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cpqyy6ijhtHNRs_7sSVBMVIrWEhmAuLF...
Note: Check the team is playing at the correct venue, as ever I avoid neutral venues and leagues that have only just started.
Football Selections -
ELO Strong team come back system: Full explanation here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-elo-strong-team-comeback-trading-system
16/10/20 19:45 Ireland Premier Division Normal Home 17/10/20 00:15 Paraguay Primera Division Normal Home Back a late goal filter when drawing - Strategy walkthrough guide here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-late-goal-when-drawing-trading-strategy
Brazil Serie B 17/10/2020 01:30:00 Cruzeiro Juventude Mexico Liga Mx 17/10/2020 03:30:00 Mazatlan FC Juarez Gary's Second Half Goal - Back a goal second half (you can wait until later on if you want better odds just don't get in if a second half goal has been scored already)
None today
Ryan's Split Stake - Back Over 1.5 goals if 0-0 at 30 mins and 50 mins, 50% of stake each time. Green up on goal or take a loss if 0-0 at 70 mins:
Paraguay Primera Division 16/10/2020 22:00:00 Diaz San Lorenzo Betgreen - Lay the draw at KO Green up on Goal or take loss at 70 mins if 0-0:
Sweden Superettan 16/10/2020 18:00:00 Akropolis AFC Eskilstuna -
@daniel-cooper also thinking if teams have better matched odds this will do better as you eliminate the underdog scoring issue (although maybe evenly matched teams draw odds won't be 4.0+)?
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@daniel-cooper said in BTC Daily Trading Advice - 16th October:
I’ll stick my oar in here and say my experience is similar to Alistairs, potentially a tad higher!
- still it wouldn’t be used by the pro’s and included in the daily email if it wasn’t tried, tested and profitable, so I don’t for a second doubt it as a strategy!
As such, @Martin-Futter, could we get a strategy deep dive, like the one you did on the SHG’s, on this one?
So around 33% on a loser, actually means 10% with the strike rate is a good profit.
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@daniel-cooper said in BTC Daily Trading Advice - 16th October:
I’ll stick my oar in here and say my experience is similar to Alistairs, potentially a tad higher!
- still it wouldn’t be used by the pro’s and included in the daily email if it wasn’t tried, tested and profitable, so I don’t for a second doubt it as a strategy!
As such, @Martin-Futter, could we get a strategy deep dive, like the one you did on the SHG’s, on this one?
@Ryan-Carruthers would be better placed to write that one as it's his filter.
@Ryan-Carruthers do you have that big write up of the rules you did? Need to check I have got it right.
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I’ll stick my oar in here and say my experience is similar to Alistairs, potentially a tad higher!
- still it wouldn’t be used by the pro’s and included in the daily email if it wasn’t tried, tested and profitable, so I don’t for a second doubt it as a strategy!
As such, @Martin-Futter, could we get a strategy deep dive, like the one you did on the SHG’s, on this one?
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@alastair-todd yeah it's important to have a high strike rate for these, I need to check @Ryan-Carruthers what's the average loss on 70 mins? Remember we are never risking 100% of stake. It's one of those strategies that won't suit everyone due to the high strike rate needed but it's very rare not to get a goal before 70
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Hi there. 'Noobie' question. Can I ask what your expected return is on the LTD at KO strategy? The reason I ask is that I did the Peru match last night and the Swedish match this evening which both gave a winning result but with a liability of only £20 each time (starting small!) I only made 11% on the first match and 8% on the second one. Now on the basis that a win's a win, I am happy that it wasn't a losing trade, but is 10% about right for this strategy?
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@martin-futter yeah mate
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@martin-futter what are the games for the ELO Come Back system? Can't see them on here
Thanks
