Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread)
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There we go!!!!! Goal from Mjallby. 2 for 2 on the daily email selections AND for the trades I wanted to do. You've all seen me write it here - NO MORE TRADES FOR TODAY, NONE. I was tempted by the additional goal in the Hacken game but NO, I'm closing Betfair and not opening it again as that isn't on the plan!
If I post here, I'm not just keeping myself accountable, you all are too. I did the player research on the games and stuck to the plan so I'm happy with the outcome and felt mostly confident with the trade.
I will say I wouldn't have discounted those two games if they weren't drawing at entry. I would have leant more on the In Play stats. Personal preference. As I write this another goal comes in from Mjallby off the back of a red card - but not yet Hacken so bullet avoided!
EDIT: Who's glad he didn't go back in on Norrkoping v Hacken???? Me! Still great in play stats, but no second goal so chuffed I stuck to the plan
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I really do feel another second half goal here, but the strategy doesn't include this so I don't think I will mess about - trying really hard not to overtrade! Fingers crossed for Kalmar v Mjallby
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As I wrote the below, Hacken scored!
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Tonight I've entered on both the daily email selections, which is Back a Late Goal in Kalmar v Mjallby and then Norrkoping v Hacken. Both are drawing at the entry point which is optimal for the strategy, so happy with this. Additionally, all 4 teams, bar 1 or 2 top assisting players, have their top players on the pitch! Overall I'm happy with entering on these, Kalmar v Mjallby 2nd half stats could be better, the Norrkoping game 2nd half stats are on fire, I feel both of these statements are definitely backed up by the odds difference in the two games!
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Right, quick first post from me; as its a quiet day its a good time to review filters! A cracking post from Darri on his thread has lead me to consider reducing the number of filters I'm recording/focussing on and master just one or two over a long period of time. I intend to use the daily email picks alongside good pre-match research, as well as Darri's suggested SHG filter to build bank. In the mean time, I have a keen interest in the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market.
I have had a filter running for Laying Under 3.5 Goals for a couple of weeks! The reason being that the liabililty is so low! At KO most games will have Lay U3.5 Odds of under 2.00, usually between 1.2 and 1.8. As such, I'm trying to find high scoring games, preferably with at least 2 goals in the first half. I envisage exiting with green somewhere between 60 mins and 70 mins with available green, giving enough time for that 4th goal to come in and allow full profit! The trend I have noticed is a goal goes in, spikes the odds, provides green and then the gradual decline back to red if left (sometimes not so gradual) which all makes sense.
I've been thinking about the filter over the weekend and want to add and amend a number of things! I currently just look for O0.5 H1 and O3.5 FT, but I think this is silly and won't produce the results I want! I plan to monitor percentages for O1.5, O2.5 and O3.5 H1 for both home and away, FT O2.5 and FT O3.5, as well as average first goal score time.
Depending on point of exit, you only really need 2 goals, will see how this pans out, starting filter from scratch today!