BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 17th October

Martin

Mass results update has been done! All systems doing well on football, the horses have had a rough patch but are still well in profit. Not long until the end of testing now, so as ever I will do a big summary once we collect 3-6 months data on each one.

Horse Lays - Opposing the bad tipsters if SP is 11.0+ do not lay: Place lay seems to be best with these, much less variance.

19:00 Chmt

PHILAMUNDO

Football - Martin's Lay The Draw At Half-Time - Trade out after a goal - Take a loss if no goal and game looks dead:

None today

Unders Galore Strategy: I aim to take 25% profit before hedging.

None today

Ryan's Over 1.5 goals Split Stake Strategy: Rules (Only ever enter the trades at 0-0 scoreline) - Split the stake and Back Over 1.5 goals at 30 minutes and 50 minutes - Take profit if goal is scored or a loss if no goal by 75 mins. Make sure stats are strong and goals look likely before entering the trade.

481483

Australia

A-league

18/10/2019 09:30:00

Melbourne Victory

WS Wanderers

Tennis - Ryan's Lay the Favourite at 3-3 or 4-4: Rules lay the favourite when the score gets to 3-3 or 4-4 in the first set (green up or take loss if at end of set or before).

Atp - Singles	Antwerp	17/10/2019 12:30:00	Copil M.	Schwartzman D.
Wta - Singles	Luxembourg	17/10/2019 12:30:00	Maria T.	Blinkova A.
Wta - Singles	Luxembourg	17/10/2019 17:00:00	Lottner A.	Petkovic A.
Atp - Singles	Antwerp	17/10/2019 17:30:00	Cuevas P.	Murray A.
Atp - Singles	Stockholm	17/10/2019 17:30:00	Shapovalov D.	Popyrin A.
Atp - Singles	Moscow	17/10/2019 18:00:00	Cilic M.	Karlovic I.
Wta - Singles	Luxembourg	17/10/2019 18:30:00	Cirstea S.	Goerges J.
Atp - Singles	Antwerp	17/10/2019 19:00:00	Humbert U.	Goffin D.

Any questions ask here: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/703/btc-daily-email-q-and...

Set and Forget Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQYxOh-mUHfAm9OByLhzX0ooiQQUqYshfnDJLWRYHUY/edit#gid=1615190530

Ryan

@paul-keighley I always split matey, never tried it any other way, my thinking with it is that if the goal comes after 30 -49 I get out with profit, if the goal comes after 50 then I need the higher odds to even out the first one which was at lower odds.

I don't have a set number of what I look for, its more a feeling of an open game so is there shots on target? Not just off, is there a lot of attacks? Whats the % of dangerous ones?

I did a data grab the other week on games and this broke down per goal....

Per goal in a game

4 shots on target
49 dangerous attacks
Corners 4.88

I look at every game I am about to enter as well and check the average shots per goal for each team to correlate with the in play stats

? Offline

Also, what sort of inplay stats do you ideally need in the first 30 minutes before getting involved? shots/corners/dangerous attacks etc?

? Offline

Just a quick question for @Ryan-Carruthers re your split stake strategy..

Do you always split the stake 50 50 or as the odds are lower at 30 than 50 and the fact more goals will come after 30 but before the 50 stake is entered, could you consider splitting it say 70% at 30 mins and then 30% at 50 mins or would it not make all that much difference?
thanks