BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October
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Mass results update has been done! All systems doing well on football, the horses have had a rough patch but are still well in profit. Not long until the end of testing now, so as ever I will do a big summary once we collect 3-6 months data on each one.
Horse Lays - Opposing the bad tipsters if SP is 11.0+ do not lay:
13:55 Nott ALL MY LOVE 14:00 Navn COBB AND CO 14:55 Nott DUKE OF CONDICOTE 15:20 Ludl CINDERBELLA 16:00 Nott EPONINA 18:40 Kemp MARNIE JAMES Football - Martin's Lay The Draw At Half-Time:
480519 Costa Rica Primera Division 09/10/2019 22:05:00 Limon Herediano 480593 Brazil Serie A 10/10/2019 1:30:00 Santos Palmeiras Unders Galore Strategy: I aim to take 25% profit before hedging.
None today
Ryan's Over 1.5 goals Split Stake Strategy: Rules (Only ever enter the trades at 0-0 scoreline) - Split the stake and Back Over 1.5 goals at 30 minutes and 50 minutes - Take profit if goal is scored or a loss if no goal by 75 mins. Make sure stats are strong and goals look likely before entering the trade.
None today
Tennis - Ryan's Lay the Favourite at 3-3 or 4-4: Rules lay the favourite when the score gets to 3-3 or 4-4 in the first set (green up or take loss if at end of set or before).
None today
Any questions ask here: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/703/btc-daily-email-q-and...
Set and Forget Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQYxOh-mUHfAm9OByLhzX0ooiQQUqYshfnDJLWRYHUY/edit#gid=1615190530
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so i'll tell you what i did last night , on the lay the draw selections there was only one that was a draw at half -time , bristol city v charlton , i placed £10 @ 2.34 at around 50 mins , i checked bet365 and there were quite a lot of shots on goal , corners etc so it looked as though there would be someone score , the goal came in the 65th min so then cashed out on betfair , i won £2.96 , did i do this correctly or was there something else i missed .
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@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold yes of course that can happen but I deal in trends, the trends are that an open attacking game will yield more goals than a slow defensive game in general. There will be exceptions to this of course but over the course of hundreds of games this trend will hold true. Therefore that is how I trade those games, try to watch the game as much as you can when trading.
thanks for replying , all i'm doing is trying to learn from you .
is it bet365 you get the stats from when the game is in-play .
also on the lay the draw do you use level stake or liability when opening the trade . -
@stephen-arnold yes of course that can happen but I deal in trends, the trends are that an open attacking game will yield more goals than a slow defensive game in general. There will be exceptions to this of course but over the course of hundreds of games this trend will hold true. Therefore that is how I trade those games, try to watch the game as much as you can when trading.
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@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold I would do it manually personally and not have a set rule, reason being why would I take a loss in a game where it was 1-0 early but the game was dead and the goal a fluke.
but how many times have you saw two late goals , or more from out of the blue ? , i would suggest loads .
stats , meaning shots on goal , on target mean nothing , it's what really happens meaning when teams score that counts -
@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold for instance if the game is a lot more open and attacking than expected you are unlikely to let in run.
i know it's an hard one but what do you think would be the % stop loss to take roughly
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@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold two things, you have taken 1.8 for every trade, average odds are actually around 1.99. Also it would be very rare to take a 100% loss on any trade, there is a lot of room to trade out in this market, gameflow will help determine that.
can you expand on the second part a bit more please
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@stephen-arnold two things, you have taken 1.8 for every trade, average odds are actually around 1.99. Also it would be very rare to take a 100% loss on any trade, there is a lot of room to trade out in this market, gameflow will help determine that.
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so on the unders , i can't see how you can make a profit at all if only taking 25% profit @ 75% s/r .
example 1.80 x 10 @ £10 = £8.00 less 5% comm £7.60 = £ 1.90 / 25% profit -
of course one of the drawbacks is following all these selections because of the times some of them kick off
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@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold
Q. Football - Martin's Lay The Draw At Half-Time: ................ so is there any price stipulation ---and then trade out or let it run?
A. There is no price stipulation but use common sense here, you want your average odds to be around 2.8 to lay, so if the ltd is above 4.0 check the stats and maybe leave it. I advise to trade out I think that will have the better long term return, although both would be in profit.Q. Unders Galore Strategy: I aim to take 25% profit before hedging. .........price again ?...trade or set and go?
A. I prefer odds to be 1.80 plus here and definitely would want to be trading out.Q. So what is best to do with these two systems , what is likely to give the best return taking into account the strike rates?
A. As advised above.Q. What strike rates would i need to just break even on the trades and the outright markets for both?
A. You would want above just above 75% to break even if trading. If set and forget you would want around 64%+ for the LTD and around 51%+ for the Unders strategy.thankyou very much martin
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@stephen-arnold
Q. Football - Martin's Lay The Draw At Half-Time: ................ so is there any price stipulation ---and then trade out or let it run?
A. There is no price stipulation but use common sense here, you want your average odds to be around 2.8 to lay, so if the ltd is above 4.0 check the stats and maybe leave it. I advise to trade out I think that will have the better long term return, although both would be in profit.Q. Unders Galore Strategy: I aim to take 25% profit before hedging. .........price again ?...trade or set and go?
A. I prefer odds to be 1.80 plus here and definitely would want to be trading out.Q. So what is best to do with these two systems , what is likely to give the best return taking into account the strike rates?
A. As advised above.Q. What strike rates would i need to just break even on the trades and the outright markets for both?
A. You would want above just above 75% to break even if trading. If set and forget you would want around 64%+ for the LTD and around 51%+ for the Unders strategy. -
@martin-futter said in BTC Football, Horse and Tennis Trading Picks 9th October:
@stephen-arnold ok what specifically would you like to know?
the stats were reset in July, they were performing very well before that also but i wanted to restart to check they were still doing well and not relying on past success.
the best thing about these is the consistency of the data, the variance is minimal and strike rate pretty much the same during testing.i need to know the best way forward with these as a strategy , trading or outright wins .
i know it's not possible with these but when there's just strike rates to go on and no profit / loss account to see i'm looking in the dark a bit .Football - Martin's Lay The Draw At Half-Time: ................ so is there any price stipulation ---and then trade out or let it run .
Unders Galore Strategy: I aim to take 25% profit before hedging. .........price again ?...trade or set and go
so what is best to do with these two systems , what is likely to give the best return taking into account the strike rates and what strike rates would i need to just break even on the trades and the outright markets for both .
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@stephen-arnold ok what specifically would you like to know?
the stats were reset in July, they were performing very well before that also but i wanted to restart to check they were still doing well and not relying on past success.
the best thing about these is the consistency of the data, the variance is minimal and strike rate pretty much the same during testing. -
so your doing a summary on all the football systems martin ?
looking at your daily e-mail selections sheet on LTD and UNDERS GALORE they only go from july time , didn't these start before then ?
also you've only got the trade and win % now at the top of the page .
i know there used to be more and i have watched a video you made about them .
it would be good if you could explain more about these strategies now please .
