New member Chas
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Hi Chas here I’m a newbie and id just like to say hello.
I’ve been looking over the site and I think it seems brilliant. I was looking in the training video section and was watching the live pre match football betfair trading research video. In that video, poisson distribution was mentioned and that bookies use it. It then went on to say that the predicted price on a certain match was 1.63 but the current betfair price was 2.5. I was wondering if anyone has checked to see if the betfair prices of matches like this one come more into line with the predicted price at the time of the kick off. If so would this be a viable pre match trading opportunity.
Really looking forward to learning from you all. But looking at all the info on the site I think this is going to be a long term project.
Chas. -
@dan-helps Ahhh amazing! Mine now says is that trading talk? lol Then I always try to explain it to her and she doesn't really care.
It's a cracker to be fair - it will work through summer too on the higher liquidity leagues too - Swedish, Norwegian etc...
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@ryan-carruthers said in New member Chas:
@dave-jessop said in New member Chas:
Hi Chas - it's Dave
I was waiting for you to get on the Chas and Dave one!
I think it was me that did that video, I didn't do anything on Poisson for the pre match as I was using it totally for value in play which I still sometimes run my games through just to add an extra layer of value hunting on.
Most of my pre match is on a one tick recycle method (
)If you wanted to check out the poisson pre match stuff then here was the calc I was using for it https://sinceawin.com/data/tools/poisson
Let me know how you get on with it
Anything else you need just drop me a message, tag me or email - happy to have you here and help!
I've just watched this pre-match video that you share @Ryan-Carruthers , something that I'd never thought of before but think I will try once the bigger leagues start up next season.... really useful. The downside is that my missus now thinks that I'm a nutter as I'm walking around the house saying 'up a tick, down a tick, up a tick, down a tick' to myself!!!
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@dave-jessop and the circle is complete
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@charles-abbott said in New member Chas:
Cheers Dave.
Hi Daniel if you don’t mind crap spelling and atrocious grammar then I’m happy to post.
Thanks Ryan that looks like a really nice tool ill see if I can find a use for it.My signature on this forum has a waver for my consistent bad spelling
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Cheers Dave.
Hi Daniel if you don’t mind crap spelling and atrocious grammar then I’m happy to post.
Thanks Ryan that looks like a really nice tool ill see if I can find a use for it. -
@dave-jessop said in New member Chas:
Hi Chas - it's Dave
Being a friendly forum - i hope to see more rabbit than sainsburys
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@dave-jessop said in New member Chas:
Hi Chas - it's Dave
I was waiting for you to get on the Chas and Dave one!
I think it was me that did that video, I didn't do anything on Poisson for the pre match as I was using it totally for value in play which I still sometimes run my games through just to add an extra layer of value hunting on.
Most of my pre match is on a one tick recycle method (
)If you wanted to check out the poisson pre match stuff then here was the calc I was using for it https://sinceawin.com/data/tools/poisson
Let me know how you get on with it
Anything else you need just drop me a message, tag me or email - happy to have you here and help!
