World Cup Top Goalscorer Preview

[Martin]

Top goalscorer markets can be huge upsets in terms of who wins them. I can demonstrate this with two relevant examples of attacking midfielders who won awards - James Rodriguez winning the golden boot at the 2014 world cup and Mohammed Salah winning the EPL golden boot this season. You could have got great odds on either of those two winning those awards but it happened. 

Why is the market so tough to predict at the moment? 

I think the biggest reason is that the traditional number nine striker role is virtually non-existant in today's game. Maybe Harry Kane is the best example of it still existing but he is an anomoly in the current football climate. Attacking midfielders or inside forwards as they are often known have started to score more goal and become top scorers in teams ahead of their main striker. 

How can we trade this market to make money?

I have a few key rules I use to trade this market which have led to success. 

1. Go for players who are the clear top scoring candidate in their team - examples of this would be Kane in Tottenham's team (no other relevant striker to challenge him) and Lukaku for Manchester Utd. These players will always be their team's top scorer when they play in the system that focuses on supplying them. A lot of teams now have a collective forward line who all contribute I look to avoid these (not that they can't win, I just think you are so dependant on the team scoring bags of goals in this case like Liverpool did this season).

2. Go for players who will get far in the tournament - bit of a no brainer here but worth remembering, Kane looks a great price on his ability but how many games will he get? 3-5 max in most people's eyes. Germany and Brazil nearly always get 6-7 games which is an obvious advantage in this market. 

3. Big name centre forwards do not always win the World Cup Golden Boot (they often become big names after winning it). Infact since 1998 (first World Cup I remember well) the 5 winners have been Davor Suker (remember him?), fat Ronaldo (perhaps the predictable winner), Miroslav Klose, Thomas Muller and James Rodriguez. I would consider the last two to be midfielders (albeit attack ones). Go for up and coming players who may be underestimated. 

4. You need a bit of luck and to trade the players - if I pick a winner then great but my ultimate goal is just for the price to shorten enough to remove liability or green up. I made a nice profit on Morata this season getting in at a good price and getting out at the right time, if a price looks big to you but you don't think they will win then it still may be value and profitable. 

OK so onto this years best value picks in my opinion:

Main Pick:

Timo Werner 18.0 odds

• Germany always get far and Werner looks to be their main striker this year, he scores goals for fun and has serious pace to burn. He was immense at the Confederations Cup and combined with World Cup Qualifying he has scored 6 in 7 games, if he can repeat that here the boot could be his with those stats. Germany scored bags of goals last World Cup and with a simiar set up look to be very strong again. Germany have won the top scorer award 2 of the last 3 World Cups. Mexico, Sweden and South Korea could be cannon fodder for Werner if he starts every game.

Secondary Pick:

Cristiano Ronaldo 22.0 odds

• As bad as Portugal are at times they are European Champions. Ronaldo scored 15 goals in his 9 qualifying games, that is pure madness. When I see Messi at nearly half the odds I have to think there is some value here, one of the greatest players of a generation playing almost certainly his last World Cup, would anyone really lay him at this price? Also, Portugal should get through their group with Spain, Morocco and Iran. Even 4 games could be enough for Ronaldo to score 6+ but this team can go further if they continue to raise their level at big tournaments.

Longshot Darkhorse Pick:

Mohammed Salah 120.0 odds

• I always make my picks on value and this one sticks out like a sore thumb. OK he may be injured but I would be amazed if he is not magically back by the first game, let's face it playing a World Cup is worth those painkilling injections. Salah may play for Egypt but they could get out of a weak group with Uruguay, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Whilst it would be a suprise to most, I would not be overly shocked if they made the Quarter-Finals. They certainly don't have anything to fear in that group and let's not forget this is the Premier League top scorer we are talking about (highest scorer in the Premier League since 1995!). Low liability for a big return if he does play and bag a few in the group stage.