Trading Advice 15th November
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Thanks for the feedback and emails, really pleased to see so many of you using the trading notes to make a good profit. Let's carry on!
Today's match previews:
Grigor Dimitrov v David Goffin - Dimitrov leads the head 6-1 but it is 1-1 on indoor hard courts with Goffin winning their last match up in 3 sets. Both players won their first matches this week in 3 sets against Thiem and Nadal respectively. On talent alone Dimitrov should be winning matches like this fairly comfortably but he often seems to have a dip in form during matches. In terms of trading this could be another close one but there is a danger that Dimitrov shows up and wins this easily. First set lay winner is inplay again but just be aware of that I think if Dimi wins first there is a good chance he wins second, hopefully Dimi is so short (1.2 or lower) that the lay just makes sense based on his far from perfect mentality. Assuming he looks ok, I would back Dimi if he loses the first set or maybe even when he goes above evens. One result I don't think is likely is a Goffin blowout win as he has never won in straight sets in the 7 matches h2h. Goffin has won the first set 3 times vs Dimitov and never gone on to win the second (infact it wasn't ever close, the next sets went to Dimi 6-3, 6-1 and again 6-1).
Pablo Carreno Busta v Dominic Thiem - Thiem leads the h2h 5-1 although none were on indoor hard. This is a really tough spot for Busta as he has been drafted in unexpectedly to replace Nadal, which is far from ideal in terms of preparation. This is the downside to round robin where a loss does not knock a player out, players will pull out rather than carry on with dead rubbers or injuries. Busta has done nothing on indoor hard with his only win since the US Open being against clay court specialist Guido Pella. Thiem is not great on this surface either but was impressive against Dimitov on Monday on this same court. This is a really hard one to predict as a result and with Thiem being such short odds at present he is unbackable. If Busta wins the first set and Thiem looks in similar form to Monday I would definitely back Thiem above evens. If Thiem wins the first set I would expect him to win out but with his lack of form on this surface a lay at 1.1ish or below would be a bit speculative but worth it based on risk vs reward. Just make sure Busta looks prepared for this match.
