18th February Trading Notes
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Football
Spanish La Liga -
Real Betis v Real Madrid
Betfair Real Madrid odds 1.34/Martin's Real Madrid odds 1.5
- Betis have a 50% win rate at home this season and a 33% lose rate
- Madrid have a 50% win rate away from home this season but only a 10% lose rate
- Real played a huge game midweek in Champions League
Betis don't have a lot to play for here as they sit comfortably in mid-table but this is their best chance to beat Real in a long time. Real are deserving favourites and I have them odds on to win too but not as short at 3/1 on.
This is purely a value odds play for me as laying here does not have much downside but a big upside if Betis can pull something out of the bag at home.
Germany Bundesliga -
Augsburg v Stuttgart
Betfair Augsburg odds 2.22/Martin's Augsburg odds 2.0
- Augsburg have won 5 drawn 4 and lost only 2 home games this season
- Augsburg have not lost at home since October
- Stuttgart have not won away this season and have only drawn twice losing the other 9 matches
Given the draw threat here a draw no bet back of Augsburg looks the best play assuming they start the match and look up for it. They still have an outside chance of European qualification this season. Stuttgart have shown the talent they have at home (3rd best home record in the league) and will be desperate to win but the fact they haven't won away all season can't be ignored here.
Tennis -
ATP Tour
New York Final - Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson (Odds both around even money which I agree with)
- Anderson has gone to 3 sets every match this week (3/3)
- Querrey also went the distance yesterday v Mannarino
- Two big servers not expecting much excitement
- Head to head is fairly evenly split although Anderson did win their last 2 encounters
I would be surprised if we did not see a tie break here and if you can get 1.5+ on that somewhere then that is a value play. Lay first set winner looks in play here too, don't be too surprised to see a scoreline like 6-7 7-6 6-7, these guys clearly like winning the second set when losing the first.
