BTC Daily Email Selections 19th November
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If a match is selected for both systems do not worry, it can never be the correct odds to qualify for both as if under 2.5 goals is 1.80+, over 1.5 goals will never be 1.50+ and vice versa.
Unders Galore: Rules - Under 2.5 goals MUST be 1.80 odds prior to KO or above for any of the selections to qualify as bets or trades for us.
Back whichever combination you would like to of - Under 2.5 goals (+196pts), Under 1.5 goals (+366pts), Under 0.5 first half goals (50% s/r), both teams to score NO (+228pts). Either let them run or trade out after 30mins or at HT. If you are trading then you should take a loss if an early goal scored. (10pts per bet for results)
No picks for this filter today.
Over 1.5 Goals and Over 0.5 First Half Goals Selections!
Results - Over 1.5 Goals +185pts, Over 0.5 First Half Goals 73.75% Strike Rate
Rules - Over 1.5 goals MUST be 1.50 odds prior to KO or above for any of the selections to qualify as bets.
Fluminese v Ceara 10pm UK time
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@richard-lillis it is a bonus filter i added as some like overs and not unders, unders is the main one as it met my hypothesis so avoid the overs one if you are unsure of it
will be lots of bad days with both either way such is the nature of the beast but long term is the important thing. -
@martin-futter for Over 1.5 ones, if the value is in odds, does this mean that we sholud back it straight away and the value is lost if waiting for odds to get to say 2.0 to enter the market?
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@martin-futter thanks for your reply, yes i understand now thanks. I'm still getting used to the tool and to football trading in general...
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@richard-lillis I did a video on it explaining but basically it’s just a case of this has been working for 3 months and is in good profit. Obviously no guarantee of that continuing but the theory is that these matches are being overrated for unders by the market. The value has been in the odds, the odds are so high for over 1.5 compared to the general average that they have been value. It’s all about the odds and strike rate with this one, if the odds were lower then it would not work.
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@neil-mallett I know and that's the confusing part. By laying Under 1.5 goals is the same bet as backing over 1.5 goals. Either way you want over 1.5 goals to win.
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@matthew-davies but it clearly says back O1.5 or fhg at the top of the spreadsheet.
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@Martin-Futter thanks, on the lay under 1.5 selections, do you have a max lay odds or is it just as long as over 1.5 goals is over 1.5 to qualify? Ta
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@richard-lillis from looking at the Lay odds column in the spreadsheet results even though the strategy is called Over 1.5 goals and or Over 0.5 FHG the actual bet is to lay Under 1.5 goals I think??
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@martin-futter said in BTC Daily Email Selections 19th November:
If a match is selected for both systems do not worry, it can never be the correct odds to qualify for both as if under 2.5 goals is 1.80+, over 1.5 goals will never be 1.50+ and vice versa.
Unders Galore: Rules - Under 2.5 goals MUST be 1.80 odds prior to KO or above for any of the selections to qualify as bets or trades for us.
Back whichever combination you would like to of - Under 2.5 goals (+196pts), Under 1.5 goals (+366pts), Under 0.5 first half goals (50% s/r), both teams to score NO (+228pts). Either let them run or trade out after 30mins or at HT. If you are trading then you should take a loss if an early goal scored. (10pts per bet for results)
No picks for this filter today.
Over 1.5 Goals and Over 0.5 First Half Goals Selections!
Results - Over 1.5 Goals +185pts, Over 0.5 First Half Goals 73.75% Strike Rate
Rules - Over 1.5 goals MUST be 1.50 odds prior to KO or above for any of the selections to qualify as bets.
Fluminese v Ceara 10pm UK time
Apologies if I'm missing something or misinterpreted the data but according to historical stats 55% of games are 0-0 at half time and 60% of games have under 1.5 goals according to stats. The odds for over 1.5 is 1.55 so I'm struggling to see how that is value based on the stats? Just to be clear I'm not questioning your hard work I'm just a little confused
