New blog post by Martin Futter! Betfair Trading Laying The Draw - 5 Key ways to profit from this trade!
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Most of our members will know that laying the draw in football is one of our favourite Betfair trading stagtegies. We have had success for it on Betfair Trading Community for the past five and a half years that the site has been running. So today we will share the 5 key secrets to how we have success with this trading system and how you can also!
1. Check that the 2 teams win odds are very similar to each other.
So if Man Utd are playing Chelsea and both their odds are 2.8 to win that is perfect! If Liverpool are playing Huddersfield and Liverpool are 1.2 odds and Huddersfield are 10.0 odds then this is not a lay the draw opportunity.
Why do we do this? If the odds between the two teams are similar then when a goal is scored the market will move in pretty much the same way no matter which side scored. This is what we want, we aren't trying to pick the winner here we just want a goal! If the two teams odds are far apart then if the underdog scores the draw odds will probably shorten, we may have to trade out for a loss or pray that the favourite scores two quick goals, this is not a good situation to be in obviously!
2. Check for strong pre-match stats that suggest goals.
Everyday the first thing I do is check my filters on the Betfair Trading Community statistics software to see which games look like having goals. You want a filter where both teams score a lot and preferably also concede goals. The other really important thing is that neither team has many 0-0s.
If you are unsure where to start with the filters why not look at or follow one of the pre-set members filters? There are a few geared towards LTD.
If you need any help make sure to ask us in the megathread: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/648/trading-q-and-a-megathread-ask-us-anything
3. Check for strong in-play stats that suggest goals.
I tend to lay the draw at or after half-time, so in-play stats are crucial for me in deciding whether or not to enter the market. Why? Because they confirm to me that this match should have a goal!
What stats minimum do I use? This is my general rule of thumb: 10+ shots on goal (at least 5 on target), 5+ corners and 50%+ dangerous attacks to attacks rating on Bet365.
I will ocassionally LTD in a game that does not quite have these stats, eg 6 shots on target, 3 off and 3 corners because I value shots on target more highly than any other stat. However, it has to be very close to my rule of thumb for me to get involved.
4. Avoid the red flags!
There are a number of circumstances where I will not enter a trade.
- A red card in the match
- Bad weather conditions - frozen pitch, torrential rain etc.
- Cup matches - not enough form and teams have different motivations
5. Plan your potential exit and track the trade.
Some people like to exit at 70mins if no goal is scored, some people will let the trade run unless the action slows down enough to make it look like a small loss is worth taking.
Either way, it is good to have a plan about what you may do. Don't just decide randomly on the fly, if you said to yourself before the trade that you would get out at 70mins if the action had slowed down then do that. Don't just decide to carry on with the trade regardless because once you move away from your plan and move out of your comfort zone that is where futher mistake can and often will happen!
If the actions stays lively and shots are still in abundance then I will tend to stay in but however you decide to trade it just make sure you stick to your principles.
So there you have it! 5 key tips for laying the draw in football, these will help improve your trading and hopefully make you profit from the market!
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@Martin ...just a query please on No. 5
I have set my exit strategy at 70mins on lay the draw, after watching various videos saying that you normally get 2.0 at around this time.
On Saturday I had 1 bet outstanding at this time and exited according to my plan, but it was at 1.67.
I then checked other games(not on my list but 0-0 scorelines at this time of the game all seemed around 1.7!)
As a new trader I am unsure whether at less than 2.0, I should let the bet run?
Kick in the balls that the home team scored on 74mins and the price went Green on the loss I had taken, but hey ho everydays a schoolday. -
@martin said in New blog post by Martin Futter! Betfair Trading Laying The Draw - 5 Key ways to profit from this trade!:
@dave-hayes worth a try let me know how it works out for you!
I certainly will.
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A superb article. Thank you for sharing.
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@martin said in New blog post by Martin Futter! Betfair Trading Laying The Draw - 5 Key ways to profit from this trade!:
@dave-hayes yeah I like equal odds on the teams as it pretty much guarantees a profit when a goal is scored.
It does and certainly something I hadn't thought about previously. I had just ignored them, maybe a bit foolishly, but moving forward I shall try it out
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@maciej-kaczmarek depends on my strategy on that particular match but I would probably wait as it is so early that an equaliser is not a killer and you could take a good green at HT. If drawing at HT then you can expect a second half goal most of the time anyway
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@btc Very useful post this. I had been avoiding matches between two strong teams, as I didn't think it was that good, but reading what you put, I see it from a different light now
The way heavy odds for the opposition as in the Liverpool Huddersfield game, I have been doing that.
No3 I do
No4 I do
No 5, I am doing, but need to get better at it.
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@btc Hey, interesting points!
I have a question when laying draw at kick off...
Let's say there is a goal before minute 15, cashout is available with 0.04€ profit (bet was for 1€), do you cash out, wait or cash out partially?
