New (again) Member - Lee
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@darri The overall trend follows exactly the same pattern, so if I traded all 1400 results over the same timeframe the pattern is the same, albeit at lower profit as certain leagues have been consistently poor. I appreciate what you are saying on trading only leagues with 50+ results, but surely that would mean almost every strategy anyone traded should be 2-3 seasons deep before it was traded?
Regarding multiple strategies, I have 2 filters which are traded as LCS on 60’. The first one is the one I’ve had an issue with but I’m more curious how to deal with the issue should I encounter it again. They are independent but traded the same way. Anything else I’m collecting is purely data collection, it doesn’t add or take anything away from my other trading, it’s a case of pulling out the raw data in the morning and then updating the results (scores, goal times) once a week. If I get my first strategy levelled off then I’ll look to live test something else when I see fit, but not before then, my concentration is on cracking SHG
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@lee-woodman another interesting thing iv got to ask is are you trading a strategy based off of 2 filters? Saw last month you saying you had moved to 1 strategy. But here you are talking about 2 filters with 1 losing? Not better to stick to one main filter and make that as solid as possible. This way your less likely to incur variances on one of the filters. I think reading your blog its seems you perhaps need to forget about fomo and just stick to one main thing. Noticed your tracking several things in background. Like 1.5 and 2 filters for shg. Just get one thing and make that good for a year then add.
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@lee-woodman i always view the finer details in a strategy such as leagues and scores and view them separate. Would these themselves work as a whole strategy. So is France/Germany etc a good strategy in itself. I wouldnt be trading a strategy with only 25 worth of games and certainly wouldnt be judging it on those 25 games. It would be different with for example my ltd, the overall is performing well that leagues arent an issue right now. The good leagues are better than my bad ones. With a strategy like yours the strike rate is quite important and any bad leagues/small decreases in strike rate are very detrimental. Its why im moving away from the inplay angles. You need to be so tight on everything to make it work well and it just leads to headaches. Its like trying to time a stock market instead you should just invest in a simple strategy like passively investing in s&p 500.
Old data is useless if it is corrupted or isnt linked to future patterns. Its like the whole goalscorer thing i used to harp on about or this no fans bias. If your working on tight strike rates which almost every lcs strategy is as, doesnt matter what time or odds you are taking its all relative to time risk, but this makes these differences in data pretty useless. How big an impact did no fans have on games, we saw quite a bit. How big an impact does a out of form kane make to spurs quite a bit, without salah are liverpool able to challenge for the title probably not. Thats why iv moved away from inplays too many variables. To be good at inplay trading you need to work on these things. If you dont want to then youll just have to accept the variance.
Large data means nothing if it cant be used to measure future trends. I hope in this case thats not the case but could be something to question if this happens again.
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@darri So the 850 is filtered from about 1400 results since July last year. I removed the leagues which were low liquidity and/or few results (Czech, Croatia, Brazil) and those with terrible returns (PL, Denmark etc). I still collect data for these but they are consistently poor. I only traded those which had 25+ results AND had decent returns. The filter performed well and was profitable from July through to May. June had practically nothing to trade, July was Ok (only about 20 selections), august saw a slight drop off and September dropped a lot. As a reference point, it was less than 69% for a post 60’ goal. Obviously the deeper I dive, the more diluted the numbers become
It just puts me in a quandary between ‘more data is better’ and ‘last years data is useless’. I don’t mind trading very few games to be honest, if I got one result per day then I would be ok with that, if it’s the best thing to do. It’s true what they say about trading ‘the more you know, the less you know’
I’m not discouraged from progressing overall and I do see it as a blip and actually in a good way it’s a chance to learn something
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@lee-woodman The 850 games, how many of them were recorded during the no fans period? Of that 850 how many leagues have more than at least 50 games recorded? How many of them are profitable after that mark? Perhaps its a blip, i dont know how much you lost so cant say oh its nothing, but if its significant it normally a data situation either leagues or criteria.
Those would be my questions. If your overall data is sound people tend to think ok itll turn back. But underlying data such as leagues can truly cripple that notion. We work in variances, people like to talk about winning runs, but i think the best traders work on their losing runs. Your strategy works best when you able to limit the losers and let the strategy do its own work on profits. You have the plan nailed and stick to it, now you need to manage it. Im just thinking with 850 that there might be some leagues were you might have less than 50 games for it and they might be the reason for variance.
We as traders are risk averse. So take heart in your idea to come back down in staking to 2%. I hope this is just a blip for yourself and this can bounce back. When you read back from the start of this blog id suggest youd feel proud you have knocked away the mistakes and fomo. So dont be too disheartened. Also this post will do you more good than you think. This is a good measured post its honest and next month you can look back with more clarity on your strats and go yes this was what i could have done or yeah this was just a blip. Remember trading isnt always easy. Mindset is huge. Dont let this affect you. Imagine you had this blip with a far bigger bank, its time like these at this level in which you should see this and go right i need to work on this for future.
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Well September has been a tough month and has been frustrating at times. One of my 2 filters has tailed off significantly despite being at over 850 games, from last summer through winter leagues and then through the summer leagues again. It’s been quite a setback in a way because you start thinking ‘850 is a decent amount of games’ but then the drop off is significant so it puts questions about how best to interpret the data. On one hand you think ‘be brave and ride it out’ but then on the other hand you think ‘don’t be reckless, something needs to change’. But then with that comes the question of what, because then as you dive a bit deeper the numbers become smaller and more volatile.
Anyway, I’ve not really answered any questions on that filter yet but I have stopped trading it for now and continue to record the data as before. Hopefully the winter leagues look good for it and I will reintroduce it slowly, bearing in mind that from next summer I will be very very cautious with it. If it’s only good for winter leagues then so be it, I can live with that. My second filter is holding up a lot better so I am still trading that one. Overall though I have dropped the stakes down to 2% across the board as any future drop off will be less of an impact. It wasn’t really about rushing to grow bank or to smash out huge numbers so I’m comfortable with the reduction.
The month hasn’t been a success in many ways really, I always tend to look for the positives or lessons learnt and without meaning to sound too negative there haven’t been many. Probably more questions have been asked than have been answered for me this month and it’s rocked my confidence a little if I’m honest, however, with the month ending I can draw a line under it and attempt to resolve some of the issues this month. I’ve got a lot of good data, learnt lessons and developed a good amount of calmness, patience and discipline in the last year. Whereas some people struggle more with sticking to the plan than getting the strategy right, I don’t have an issue with sticking to a plan…..I just need to make sure I get the strategy right.
Apologies for the ramble, I wasn’t going to post as I didn’t feel I had much to contribute so this update is a bit of a useless waffle but I wanted to be open about my struggles aswell, I didn’t want it to be a case of updating only when winning….hopefully next month is more progressive!
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The month has ended and its going to be a quiet week or so, its time to level things off, make sure everything is updated and pay attention to the bigger picture a little. As its been quieter its forced a level of patience and whereas previously i got quite frustrated at a lack of trades, i have actually enjoyed having a bit more time and the challenge of bedding in a few required qualities. Ive actually thought a bit deeper about trading overall, not so much in the strategy side but on the discipline side. I also feel more relaxed about trading overall and im starting to apply the longer term view on things
I posted last month about being consistent and thats really been my aim for this month. All ive been trading this month is my SHG filters (2 filters into the same strategy) and ive also been testing my O1.5 set and forgets (minimum stakes to purely see what angles i can explore). My SHG filters are doing well overall. I have done a lot of analysis this month as they are at over 850 games on each filter. One big thing has been leagues. The varying contrast between some leagues and others is massive, although i cant fully explain why, theres a definite correlation. I have cut it down to include only leagues which are performing well over 20+ games. Obviously this has to be dynamic as the number isnt huge but previously id wait for a league to be crap before removing it, now i will wait for a league to look good before including it. As im still collecting data then bad leagues could become good and vice versa so im happy to add/remove accordingly; the challenge being not to catch the wrong end of the variance
As things have settled for me in a lot im concentrating on consistency on the one strategy and bank growth. As my bank grows and compounds organically then i will keep trying to reward that success by dripping a little extra into betfair to nudge this along. If i find myself straying off strategy or not showing consistency then i will dial it back, so its an incentive to push on. The challenge here is getting the right balance between being slightly aggressive yet patient and not reckless
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@lee-woodman is there a significant difference in p/l? If there isnt then HT entries would actually be far easier time schedule and easy to place. But really either is fine because both you can know what time your needed to be there to enter.
Quite honestly i see these questions posted all the time on here and really its very straightforward and an easy answer, what makes more money and what is easier for you to manage. There is a degree to fomo in these questions and they can only be answered by p/l, amount of trades and your ability to manage them well. Only you know that.
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@lee-woodman ive been running through my filters and looking at a similar thing i think it all comes down to how you feel mentally, personally im looking at between 50-60 mins because i dont feel comfortable laying over 5 so im looking at laying at 4-4.5 and should get that between those times.
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I cannot decide for my SHG trades whether to LCS at HT or wait until 60'. Im using 2 filters which both work well in their own right and after a little tweaking each one has just over 750 results (about 1300 unique results) with a 90% SR for a SHG, or 80% SR for a SHG after 60'. The filters have been running for over a year so have been through the cycle of both summer leagues ending, winter leagues running entirely and them summer leagues restarting.
Im planning on concentrating purely on these (im taking the O1.5 back a step to test a few hundred games first) and dripping more money into BF to take these and my general trading to next level. I know once ive decided properly which way to trade them i will stick to it, i just need to get the decision right in the first place.
Any input is appreciated!
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@lee-woodman mindset, I actually mentally ask myself is this how I should be feeling before I do a trade?
Then I take a second to actually think about it.
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@ryan said in New (again) Member - Lee:
@lee-woodman
I'll be honest with you, I don't have a good discipline all the time buddy, I know a lot of the other top guys who've been around years also struggle - I've spoken with them about it.
We all have slips and dips - just like in anything, I think its about knowing you and yourself, trading is one of the most self reflective things I've ever known, the key isn't to model what everybody is doing they are different, its what works for you and finding that groove learning from them but applying your own spin to it - that's what Ive learnt anyways!
I 100% agree with what you say about an average strategy with a solid mindset - I wouldn't say some of my strategies are amazing, but the way I execute on them is.
I also notice when I need to not trade and being honest with why and not beating myself up about that.
When you say ‘I notice when I need to not trade’ do you mean from a strategy perspective (this trade isn’t quite good enough etc) or from a personal perspective (not focussed enough, not in the right mindset etc)?
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@lee-woodman
I'll be honest with you, I don't have a good discipline all the time buddy, I know a lot of the other top guys who've been around years also struggle - I've spoken with them about it.
We all have slips and dips - just like in anything, I think its about knowing you and yourself, trading is one of the most self reflective things I've ever known, the key isn't to model what everybody is doing they are different, its what works for you and finding that groove learning from them but applying your own spin to it - that's what Ive learnt anyways!
I 100% agree with what you say about an average strategy with a solid mindset - I wouldn't say some of my strategies are amazing, but the way I execute on them is.
I also notice when I need to not trade and being honest with why and not beating myself up about that.
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So ive been trading for about a year now. I originally said i would give it a year to see how things have developed & progressed and whether i see myself making money from this going forward, either eventually as a full time thing or a worthwhile part time income. The year has been difficult and inconsistent for me on a personal basis with lots going on so i think that has affected me at times. I definitely had a patch where i lost my motivation for trading and actually stopped for a few weeks but i have a renewed motivation and determination. Trading is mostly about the mentality and im convinced a great mentality with an average strategy will outperform a superb strategy any day of the week. This is definitely the hardest area to crack. I hear people say 'how do pro traders have the discipline all the time' but i dont believe they always have discipline switched on, i dont think they have to talk themselves out of getting involved in trades they shouldnt or sticking to the plan everytime; i believe they use selected discipline to create good habits and its those good habits which equal success
I have questioned and tried to improve on so many things i do and some have worked well and some need to improve but i do believe i am on the right path. I dont have the urge to get involved in trades i shouldnt and if i have a clear plan then i stick to it rigidly so i have developed some decent habits. I have quite a lot of data collated and a good understanding of a some key concepts and markets. I find if i have the plan laid out from the outset then i never stray from it - so clearly the work i need to concentrate is making the plan clear and concrete! I have been annoyed with my lack of consistency at times and i would say that this is the one key area i need to work on. I have just finished re-reading both 'essentialism' and 'the one thing' (well worth reading) and im really going to continue focussing on a small number of things but in a more precise way
From a strategy perspective i am still mainly doing SHG trading. Most of my knowledge and data is on this and the idea of such a simple trade suits me. Whilst some benefit from being more technical by splitting stakes, trading out, using cover trades etc etc i personally prefer the simplicity of placing the trade and it either wins or doesnt - the difficulty is purely in the selection and that suits me. I have also just started a O1.5 set and forget. Again this is very similar - place the trade and it wins or doesnt. With this strategy i can do everything in the morning. So going forward i am going to keep trying to reduce the number of trades, keep simplifying things and aim to improve my consistency. My aim is to still be doing the 2 same strategies from the same filters in the same way in 3 & 6 months time - then itll be a habit!
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June has been a bit of a crap month all round, as it has been for a lot of people. The month never seemed to get going, very few selections were appearing and im annoyed i didnt show the patience required at times. I guess that shows the difference between amateur and semi-pro/pro. Im more and more convinced that its not so much the strategy or the technique but the application of doing the right thing day after day, month after month, in a variety of different situations and adapting to those different situations. Basically; consistency
It wasnt horrific in terms of results so there hasnt been a real damage caused or anything, it was just a bad month to trade, i did give back just under 10pts profit and got a bit lax on some discipline. I tend to update this monthly as its my way of looking at the bigger picture and seeing what worked and what didnt. It then gives me the opportunity to try and address any issues at source. Im quite a momentum, habit type person so previously i had a really tidy, efficient routine with trading but as there has been less going on ive got out the habits and mindset a little. The downside to me having less selections means that when there has been selections i have been a bit keen to trade it, so a league which isnt the best (say Ireland) may not have got a look-in during winter has become my only selection and thus became a trade - whereas if i had 10 selections it wouldnt have made my shortlist. So i need to consider each trade better and say 'thats a B trade, leave it' whether i have anything else or not.
Im starting to get more selections from Summer leagues, Norway, Sweden, MLS will start hitting the filters so hopefully with more options available i will be able to correct last months errors.
The end of this month will be a year since i started up, im looking forward to seeing where i am at after a year - not so much in pounds profit but in terms of development as a trader!
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"Naff" is a good description. Callow and adolescent.
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@stuart-capstick That's fair enough, I'm sure there is some good stuff there but I also find the pictures of bikini clad girls a bit naff, and not really necessary on a trading website. (never thought I'd hear myself say that!)
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Actually, I was probably a little unfair to said individual. He does speak sense, but underneath the ridiculous prices and daft names, the ideas of his that I've seen are a little basic and could easily be found by yourself. That said, he may have some good ideas for those who subscribe.
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@stuart-capstick I must say that whole "get yourself a cup of coffee or a nice. cold.beer" merchant really gets on my wick!
