New Member - Pete from Melbourne, Australia
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Who you are? Pete
Where you are from? Melbourne Australia
What stage are you at in your trading journey? I have just started, 6 weeks in, not getting much success.
What's your background? I have been value betting for quite some time and quite successfully, eg getting an edge over the sharp bookmakers with the softs.
Why did you join BTC? To gain knowledge and strategies from a wide array of sports, not just the main ones.
What do you hope to get from the community? Insight, proven strategies, with clear explanations. Would love some AFL strategies, as a lot of people seem to trade it with outstanding success.
What are some of your trading goals? To become a profitable trader and use it as another source of income, long term. -
Guys I’ve taken the Liberty to start a thread where hopefully we can bounce ideas off each other.
AFL Trading Season 2021.
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@sean-fitzgerald now there’s an army of 3 love it!!
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@peter-morrell G’day Pete fellow Victorian and AFL tragic here also. Really keen to get involved with trading the season this year now that we have crowds, quarter lengths back to normal and of course a 22 round season.
Really smart strategy mate I think laying sides with around a 3 goal buffer and the new man on the mark rule and the 15 metre from the goal square for kick outs will open the game up again after the shambles of last season where teams were kicking winning scores not uncommon with the 1920’s. Also I’ve thought about laying poor teams at HT but I reckon you’re on to something with your strategy here.
Long way from home for me here in Hampshire but BT Sport do a great job with about 5 to 6 live games a week so it does the job. Welcome aboard. -
@sean-fitzgerald said in New Member - Pete from Melbourne, Australia:
@peter-morrell said in New Member - Pete from Melbourne, Australia:
@sean-fitzgerald Thanks mate. What potetntial strategies have you come up with?
The main angle I was looking at was laying teams leading by just under 3 goals. Odds really drop but it just takes a goal back for team to be right back in it.
Classic example tonight. Tiges up by 16 points with 11 mins left on the clock and I was able to lay Richmond at $1.03 (crazy). Carlton kicked the next and and I was able to remove my liability and leave some green on a Richmond at $1.24. I really wanted another Carlton goal which would have been amazing but Tiges kicked on after that. Hindsight I should have taken a little more at $1.24 but still come out with some nice green.
I started looking at some data on this last year but with the shortened quarters last year teams were not getting chased down as much. As I said there were too many variables last season so I left it alone.
Sounds good, I'll give it a go. Tonight I tried a method where I would lay the fav being Richmond, with a stop loss and a tick offset of 10. Worked well, but it's only the first time I have tried it. Scores may fluctuate this year with the new man on the mark rule, plus reduced rotations.
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@peter-morrell said in New Member - Pete from Melbourne, Australia:
@sean-fitzgerald Thanks mate. What potetntial strategies have you come up with?
The main angle I was looking at was laying teams leading by just under 3 goals. Odds really drop but it just takes a goal back for team to be right back in it.
Classic example tonight. Tiges up by 16 points with 11 mins left on the clock and I was able to lay Richmond at $1.03 (crazy). Carlton kicked the next and and I was able to remove my liability and leave some green on a Richmond at $1.24. I really wanted another Carlton goal which would have been amazing but Tiges kicked on after that. Hindsight I should have taken a little more at $1.24 but still come out with some nice green.
I started looking at some data on this last year but with the shortened quarters last year teams were not getting chased down as much. As I said there were too many variables last season so I left it alone.
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@sean-fitzgerald Thanks mate. What potetntial strategies have you come up with?
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Welcome mate! I’m from Sydney but was brought up on AFL over NRL (but I follow both).
Important to note, I still class myself a novice trader especially amongst this group.
I’ve tinkered with trading AFL last 2 seasons with limited success but I believe there are potential strategies based on momentum shifts in matches.
I was playing with some data last year but abandoned due to the fact there were some many different variables at play last season.
I’m keen to follow how you go with it and happy to help if I can in any way.
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@peter-morrell Hey Pete,
Great to have you here, looking forward to working with you on your trading
