Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Everyone This thread is for shared members strategies which can be downloaded. These will also help you create your own strategies and see what people are having success with.
THESE ARE NOT TIPS!
Strategy Downloads
Lay 3rd Fav (Sept 2024): rules_export (1).json
Dobs (Sept 2024): rules_export.json
If you want to add to the list just comment and share the .json file (to download the file from the forum: right click - save link as - save)
Here is a video guide on how to share and upload strategies:
FAQ:
Q. Should I still test these before putting money on?
A. Yes, I will always advise forward testing any strategy for 1-3 months at least. This also helps you see the best approach for the strategy, for free!Q: I am worried about backfitting, how do I combat this?
A. A couple of easy ways to do this, firstly, see if the strategy was profitable before you edited filters to improve it, was the base strategy profitable? If so you are probably onto a winner regardless. Secondly, forward test the strategy after creation, if the same winning trend continues then your strategy is clearly working and backfitting is not an issue. -
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@Danny-Bridges Actually I was wrong about it being a backwards compatibility issue.
It's actually being caused by a bug when you include "draw bias" in the individual trades results columns.
I'll fix this today but for now, just exclude that column in your results
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@Adam Thanks Adam, for some reason when I save and try to import the JSON you have attached it comes back blank and no rules added?
Is the redundant things I attached in the JSON file something to do with my understanding/action? or is it something that needs addressing in the software. Thanks.
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@Danny-Bridges There's some redundant stuff in the json file relating to favourite prices which isn't currently compatible with the software and is causing some problems.
Attached is a working version of your strategy.
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Hi @Martin @Adam or anybody else in this thread - can I get some support on why these rules are not bringing back any data for National Hunt racing types such as "Chase", "Hurdle" or "NHF". JSON is attached. Any help appreciated as I am looking to analyse if I can find any angle with Last Time out Winners following up. Currently it only brings back data for "A/W" and "Turf". Thanks.
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Can this tool be used for lay strategies? Calculating average odds using yield and strike rate is ok. But not sure if it will estimate drawdown correctly if it thinks you’re placing back bets.
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@Martin-Webb excellent!
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@Martin
I managed to sort it.
I was clicking 'import private strategy' instead of 'import strategies' - my mistake but all sorted thanks. -
@Martin-Webb if possible could you show a screenshot (if it doesn't give any personal details away)
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When attempting to import example strategies from BTC into BFBot i am being asked for a password in BFBot ?
It allowed me to import the Lay the 3rd fave without any issues, but asks for a password for any others. -
@Brigitta-Nagy said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
hi guys, I try to follow Martin's strategy, (back 5f odds7,8-10), but its not showing qualifiers to me. says: You only retrieved the results for this strategy! Why, what's that, please? thanks m_back_5f.json
Check this setting:
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@Martin said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Brigitta-Nagy do you mean upcoming qualifiers? There are probably no 5 furlong races that qualify today.
yes, i mean upcoming qualifiers.
i thought the same, it doesn't show it because there is no 5 furlong races that qualify today, but
It didn't show any upcoming qualifiers since I watching it, more than a week, but there are some results on individual trades page. -
@Brigitta-Nagy do you mean upcoming qualifiers? There are probably no 5 furlong races that qualify today.
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hi guys, I try to follow Martin's strategy, (back 5f odds7,8-10), but its not showing qualifiers to me. says: You only retrieved the results for this strategy! Why, what's that, please? thanks m_back_5f.json
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@Danny-Bridges nice work mate!
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@Martin it is pts profit. So to £10 stakes this strategy on forward testing made:
January - £46 profit
February - £183 profit -
@Danny-Bridges is that profit or -pts? Looks like profit but just checking!
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Sorry got hooked up with the day job hence my delay in reply!
@Dan-MacKinnon Thanks Dan, yeah the BSP Favourite part is a variable that cant be pre-determined unfortunately, I had the same issue when finding some half decent strategy's that one of the variables required you to be on the button right before the off to ensure the correct selection is staked. Wouldn't it be ideal if you could have the option of backing the "BSP Favourite" as an option
@Dan-MacKinnon @Martin @Adam @John-Folan - This is the closest I have got to a solid Set & Forget strategy that doesn't have too many peaks and troughs. Appreciate any feedback on how you think it stacks up. @Adam this might give you some insight why I was so hooked on how quickly the non runners update since this is the main variable of maximum of 9 runners. The only other variable can be if a horse has a BSP below 2.0 but tbh the amount of selections below this price is slim and even when you consider them as part of the back testing they have very little impact.
I do often find myself sometimes with multiple qualifiers in the same race and can even be upto 4 at times which can be quite hard to grasp at times but found it's better over the long term to keep those selections in as it's one less variable to look at when checking the daily qualifiers.
From my forward testing which started in Jan I have recorded results on my excel as the below to BSP:
Jan - 4.6 pts profit
Feb - 18.3 pts profit
Max drawdown from starting bank has been around 11pts down from a 100pt bank
Longest losing runs come in at 14 & 13 with a few 9-10 streaks
biggest winning run is 2All in all so far it's the best "set & forget" strategy I have stumbled across so far but appreciate some of those losing runs aren't for everybody.
