@Adam thanks very helpful
@Alastair-Todd That's the plan, but we'll see how much I'm enjoying the day at mile 20. Thank you and I appreciate the message.
@Adam said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
@John-Folan : It's possible to calculate an "actual" going after the race based on a going allowance, but it wouldn't be much use for backtesting anything as you wouldn't know it before the race.
Effectively the going value we use is the "predicted" one, or at least it's the "current" going and is updated as the ground changes in advance of the race.
What would be the benefit of predicting the going in advance and then not correcting it as the conditions become clearer? How long before the race should it be predicted and why then?
That’s interesting that yours updates. BFBM’s doesn’t. Which is annoying and something I have raised with them. I wasn’t sure if yours used actual or predicted so thank you for clearing that up 😀
First losing day in a while. Only two points mind
@Paul-Hill @Adam will be able to clarify not used this feature yet
@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.
These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.
We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.
Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.
Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.
I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.
Fri 19/04/2024 Selections.
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19.00 Kempton
Just Rita looks a decent lay tonight
cant see it troubling Valtellina on known form needs to improve
and why its now favourite is totally beyond me
Laying to liability Win and laying place
Exocet missile for you guys now get on lol
@Simon-Hardy interesting, not tried this but keep me updated with how you get on!
@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.
I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.
So while the P&L isn't great, mentally another good week. Have decided for the football, I seem to be better at finding value bets so will follow that philosophy for now rather than using specific strategies.
I have also created a framework for my manual horse bets in the horse racing software and found what I do should be profitable over the long term which is reassuring even if it can't be automated (think it might be but will take more research).
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Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.
@Wayne-Thomas @Martin they have nailed it. It’s really good. Got its own story which is good. Always thought it was a shame they ruined fallout 76. Would love a fallout 5
@Barry-Dewar Why do you think that is?
Very much interested in this!
@Zain-dharamshi-0 here is a video I made kind of a tutorial on a FHG strategy I made take a look:
@Danny-Bridges Actually I was wrong about it being a backwards compatibility issue.
It's actually being caused by a bug when you include "draw bias" in the individual trades results columns.
I'll fix this today but for now, just exclude that column in your results 👍
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