John’s Horse Trading Resources
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A lot of stuff seems to go missing in the HRT, especially now it has livened up. I will post anything useful here. Links/files etc.
I will post the links etc in the first comment(this one. They will then be referenced in the relevant comment if applicable. Feel free to question away.
GENERAL RESOURCES
This calculation will work out your drawdown.
=MIN((Y2-MAX($Y$2:Y2))/MAX($Y$2:Y2),0)
You need to apply it to your running total column as I have done in the example below. Make your first row your starting bank. This then needs to be applied to the whole column.
This calculation will then show you your highest bank drawdown. It needs to be applied to the relevant column.
=MIN(AH:AH).
It will then give you a largest drawdown figure like this.
Courtesy of Martin Futter
Odds Probability Table to calculate odds against strike rate
https://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.html
Courtesy of Matt Wood
If anyone uses google sheets and you have your filter S/R, then in the cell next to it put this:
=1/(E16/100)/100 (e16 being the cell with the % S/R)
Should auto calculate the odds required (not counting for commission)
Courtesy of Richard Latimer
Useful Trading Links
www.bettingtools.co.uk
www.aceodds.comEstimate Losing Runs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/HORSE SPECIFIC RESOURCES
Horse Software Tips
Always run two versions of your strategy. One called results with all your filters and one called qualifiers with variables like number of runners removed. You can then filter these manually or on your bot as they change a lot.The Original Maria Staking Thread from 2005.
Essential Horse Trading Links.
https://www.cheltenhambettingoffers.com/articles/glossary/
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing (Information on the days racing and past results)
https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/ (Going and non runners for the day)
Important Definitions for Inrunning trading
Dream maker 62’s LTB
My DOB/TROB rules
dr-dobs.json
dr-trobs.jsonBasically the same but the Dobs use a wider price range. Do either or both. They are both profitable.
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@John-Folan we talked that up!
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One point lost today. Crap strategy anyway
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@John-Folan unreal matey nearly 20% ROI cannot get anywhere near that anywhere else!
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@John-Folan yeah it's amazing to see the literal impact on strategies from Covid in the graphs, puts a lot more weight into it
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@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan the graph on that is unreal in the software! Great work
I’m over the moon tbh. These were great pre Covid and I was gutted they didn’t recover quickly. Guess I just needed to make like Gary Barlow and “Have a little patience”
Which coincidentally is one of my recommended trading songs
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@John-Folan the graph on that is unreal in the software! Great work
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@John-Folan A scratch day for my DOBs today. My big win was discipline. I spent the morning narrowing down the L2Bs to 10 possibles...and only traded 10 races, rather than trying to do all of them
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Utterly ridiculous.
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7 points to the good today. I think it’s time I dusted this photo off. It’s been a while but I think it’s deserved.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan out of interest, how many L2Bs would you normally get on in a day....if you had nothing else happening in life. I think Im trying to do to many and am making silly mistakes(yeah, following the wrong horse again!)
Varies to be honest but usually 5/6
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@John-Folan out of interest, how many L2Bs would you normally get on in a day....if you had nothing else happening in life. I think Im trying to do to many and am making silly mistakes(yeah, following the wrong horse again!)
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3/6 dobs and 2/3 trobs for 3 points profit
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1/2 dobs and 1/1 trobs. Two points to the good
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Six months live results. Slow start through the winter months(although profitable). Just shy of sixty points combined from the two exit points. Hopefully kick on up to September.
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@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Ive just radically changed my approach to DOBs, TROBs etc deciding that a horse has to have a fair chance of winning the race after having a bad spell last month and sorting through 800 results for an answer. My answer was, a huge chunk of my profit(on the 4 point system I described earlier) was from odds in the range of 2.4-8.
Ive not tightened the odds range that much(opting for 2.4-20) but I have started discounting horses that dont have a positive write up on BFEX! From saturday, Ive had 11 selections and picked 7 winners! My favourite being when my (normally very reliable) bot didnt chuck in the lays. Ill be retired by the end of the year if I can keep that strike rate up
That's a point. Wonder if @Adam Adam can include Timeform ratings in the software. OOoohh.
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@John-Folan Ive just radically changed my approach to DOBs, TROBs etc deciding that a horse has to have a fair chance of winning the race after having a bad spell last month and sorting through 800 results for an answer. My answer was, a huge chunk of my profit(on the 4 point system I described earlier) was from odds in the range of 2.4-8.
Ive not tightened the odds range that much(opting for 2.4-20) but I have started discounting horses that dont have a positive write up on BFEX! From saturday, Ive had 11 selections and picked 7 winners! My favourite being when my (normally very reliable) bot didnt chuck in the lays. Ill be retired by the end of the year if I can keep that strike rate up
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@John-Folan lovely jubbly! Thanks for adding the strats
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First trades for a couple of days
2/2 dobs and 1/1 trobs. Four points of lovely profit