Lay Under 1.5/Under 2.5:

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Update for September and my plans ongoing. I have been paper trading for several months (based on the old software}slowly slimming down and more have now been scrapped. The following i will be carrying on for another month of recording the results. Below are the results of the systems i will carry on testing one more month, all based on £10 stakes either back or liability

System 1- Lay Under 2.5 half 1 goals ( odds 1.40 or below)
Trades 56,won 16, lost 49, s/rate 28.57% profit £151.70
total trades since Jan26- Trades 477, won 88 , lost 389, s/r 18.45% profit £439.57

System 2- Back 1-1 ft cs version b (check league pos similar +h2h 20%+ 1-1ft)
Trades 15, won 1, lost 14, s/rate 6.67% lost £87.06
Trades since Nov 25- Trades 454,won 68,lost 386, s/rate 14.98% profit £269.70

System 3 - Back 1-0 FT cs version Q
Trades 9, won 2, lost 7, s/rate 22.22% profit £77.98
Trades since Feb 26- Trades 72, won 14,lost 58,s/rate 19.44% profit £320.04

System 4- Back Draw at k/o Version W( Underdog home side)
Trades 12,won 4, lost 8, s/r 33.33% profit £18.00
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 164, won 43,lost 121, s/rate 26.22% profit £154.36

System 5- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 (3.0+ ODDS)
Trades 29, won 10, lost 19, s/rate 34.45% profit £62.35
Total trades since Jan 26- Trades 455, won 146, lost 309, s/rate 32.09% profit £623.71

System 6- Back the draw for the 1st half ( odds 2.0+)
Trades 9, won 1, lost 8, s/rate 11.11% lost £67.85
Total trades since March26, Trades 95,won 48,lost 47, s/rate 50.53% profit £120.31

System 7- Back 2-1 ft cs version a ( home elo must be higher)
Trades 35, won 6, lost 29, s/rate 17.14% profit £259.78
Total trades since July 26- Trade 80,won 15,lost 65 , s/rate 18.75% profit £666.92

System 8- Injury time goal last 10
Trades 9,won0, lost 9, s/rate 0% lost £90
Total trades since Jan 25- Trades 315,won 84,lost 231, s/rate 26.67% profit £750.60

I have loads of filters i have been working on the new software , which i believe is the way forward so may well at the end of the may just scrap all of the above systems and start trading based on the lightspeed software as it has the data analysis back tested .

@Adam thanks so much for the reply Adam, congratulations on the stunning new software.

@Richard-Futter easy money well done!

@Robert-Horton Possibly, I'm not sure if they have an integration for TPD. You may need to ask BFBM.

Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

Now let's put everything together.

Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

You don't try tricks on day one.

You learn the basics first.

The article says the same thing.

Step 1

Choose a good match.

Look for:

✓ Similar skill levels

✓ Competitive match

✓ Good liquidity

✓ Chance of service breaks

Avoid:

✗ Huge favourites

✗ Very low odds favourites

✗ Poor liquidity

Step 2

Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

Do not trade every score.

The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

Examples:

15-15

15-30

0-30

Learn those first.

Become comfortable.

Master them.

Step 3

Enter The Trade

Place your back or lay position.

Before the next point starts.

Now wait.

Step 4

Watch The Next Point

This is important.

You are not predicting the whole match.

You are mostly trading the next point.

If the point goes your way:

Great.

Take profit.

Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

Step 5

Cut Losses Quickly

This is where beginners struggle.

The article repeats this idea many times.

If the point goes against you:

Exit.

Take the small loss.

Move on.

Do not hope.

Do not pray.

Do not argue with the market.

Just exit.

Step 6

Hedge

After the trade finishes:

Green up.

Lock in profit.

Reset.

Look for the next opportunity.

The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

Beginners often think:

"I need to be right every time."

Wrong.

Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

The goal is:

Lose small.

Win bigger.

Repeat.

The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

six winnings in a row - WOPS

Cheers

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?