Parnu and Juventus (w) Both had 2 fhg's and the 3 german games all had 1 fhg for scratch, which gives 5.20 pts profit for today.

11.04 points total

8 wins
3 loses
8 scratch
1 postponed

Clean sailing so far, but will definatley be plenty of ups and downs with this strategy.

Chengdu Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 3.95 + £2.38 due to pre match trade out, would have won £10.00 if had kept the original bet, but it was the right choice to trade out for a small green.
Frosinone Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 4.00 + £10.00 due to win from under 0.5 fhg lay after 10 min pen for the home side

Good start +1.2 pts for the day

@brendan-gillen we do pre-match xg on the software, if you go through the getting started pathway that will teach you how to use the software: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/category/10/new-members-start-here

You can get the live xG in play on bookie sites like Bet365 for free

1 for tonight
19:30 Bochum v Hoffenheim

I'm climbing scaffel pike tomorrow so posting the weekends selections as well. I will only enter if the away teams odds are above 3. Will probably struggle to get the 2 afternoon kick offs on tomorrow being as I'll be up a mountain.

Saturday
12:00 Paderborn v Elversberg
15:00 Swindon v Morecambe
20:00 Aston Villa v Chelsea

Sunday
No games

@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan Sounds better than it is! I cover my arse a bit😁

It’s a not a true QOB. I have a bot set up to put a point on each, HDOB, DOB, TOB and QOB. If the horse HDOBs I lose 2.5 points, DOBs I lose .5 of a point. TOBs I gain 2.5 points and QOBs I gain 6.5 points

Not a bad move. I do dob/trob. So risking 2 points to win 3. I will be adding the win in on the trob range soon as they are pretty decent too. May as well rinse a horse for as much as possible for minimal risk. I am now going to be looking at your breakdown to see if that works for me on my picks.

Fri 26/04/2024 Selections.
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@John-Folan nice will fire it up later

I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

Player Matches Won >= 0
Category WTA-Singles
Scope Last 10 Matches
✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

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In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.

@John-Folan said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:

That’s interesting that yours updates. BFBM’s doesn’t. Which is annoying and something I have raised with them. I wasn’t sure if yours used actual or predicted so thank you for clearing that up 😀

Yeah that's a shame as it's going to result in some discrepancies, but I definitely think we're on the right side of this one 🤣

@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.

if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.

@Fraser-cord

Works well any decent T20 league
Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

been doing this for a while

@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.

2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.

The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.

@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.

These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.

We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.

Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.

Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.

I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.

@Simon-Hardy interesting, not tried this but keep me updated with how you get on!

@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.

I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.

So while the P&L isn't great, mentally another good week. Have decided for the football, I seem to be better at finding value bets so will follow that philosophy for now rather than using specific strategies.
I have also created a framework for my manual horse bets in the horse racing software and found what I do should be profitable over the long term which is reassuring even if it can't be automated (think it might be but will take more research).

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