Staggeringly bad start after a missed pen in Scotland. Rangers with an xg of almost 4 managed 1 goal! FFS

Evening , update for August. I have decided that September will be the last month that i am going to paper trade results from the old software system. I have been spending quite a lot of time creating strategies on the new lightspeed software which i believe is far superior to the old one, and i am really impressed with.
I have gone through the results on the old software for August and deleted a few of the systems that wasn't worth spending anymore time recording data as either losing money over several months or just making small profits. Below are the ones i am going to carry on paper trading this month, and will make an executive decision if a am going to trade in October. It will probably be only one or two systems that will be worth it, but i have about 20 systems i have set up on the lightworks which look good which i am going to potentialy start trading some next month if September results continue in the same vain.
All based on £10 stakes ( or £10 labiality stakes)

System 1- Lay under 2.5 half 1 goals ( odds 1.40 or below)
Trades 67, won 12, lost 55, s/rate 17.92% lost £92.19
Trades since Jan26- Trades 421, won 72,lost 349, s/r 17.10% profit £287.87

System 2- Back Home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
Trades 20, won 6, lost 14, s/r 30% lost £14.56
total trades since last august - Trades 223, won 74,lost 149 ,s/r 33.18% profit £115.54

System 3- Back 1st half goal on 40mins( if no goal 30-39mins)
trades 17, won 4, lost 13, s/rate 23.53% profit £0.69
Trades since Jan26- Trades 227, won 58,lost 169, s/rate 25.55% profit £210.27

System 4- Back 1-1 FT CS Version B( check league pos similar + h2h 20% 1-1)
Trades 24, won 8, lost 16, s/rate 33.33% profit £202.60
Total trades since Nov 25, Trades 439, won 67, lost 372,s/rate 15.26% profit £356.78

System 5- Back 1-0 FT CS VERS Q
Trades 5,won 1, lost 4, s/r 20% profit £4.10
Total trades since Feb26- Trades 63,won 12,lost 51,s/rate 19.05% profit £242.06

System 6- Back over 2.5 goals ft at k/o ( 2.0+odds) check h2h
Trades 67,won 34,lost 33,s/rate 50.75% profit £106.39
total trades since Nov25- 1150, won 534,lost 616, s/rate 46.43% profit £415.75

System 7- Injury time goal version b(last 5)
Trades 52,won 10,lost 42,s/rate 19.23% lost £93.27
total trades since Feb26- Trades 350, won 94,lost 256 s/rate 26.86% profit £624.52

System 8- Injury time goal last 10
Trades 21, won 6,lost 15,s/rate 28.57% profit £76.26
Trades since Jan25- trades 306, won 84,lost 222, s/rate 27.45% profit £840.60

System 9- Back draw at k/o version W
Trades 20,won 4,lost 16,s/rate 20% lost £52.20
Trades since Feb26- Trades 152,won 39,lost 113, s/rate 25.66% profit £136.36

System 10 - BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ) ODDS 3.0+
Trades 33,won 12,lost 21, s/rate 36.36% profit £81.55
total trades since Jan26- Trades 426, won 136,lost 290,s/rate 31.92% profit £561.36

System 11- BACK THE DRAW FOR THE 1ST HALF ( ODDS 2.0+)
Trades 18,won 10,lost 8, s/rate 55.56% profit £39.75
Total trades since March 26- Trades 86, won 47,lost 39,s/rate 54.65% profit £188.16

System 12- Back over 3.5 goals FT ON 15mins ( odds 3.0+)
Trades 30,won 9, lost 21, s/rate 30% profit £8.05
Total trades since June 26- Trades 63,won 19, lost 44, s/rate 30.16% profit £30.41

System 13- Back 2-1 FT CS VERSION A (HOME ELO MUST BE HIGHER)
Trades 35,won 6, lost 29, s/rate 17.14% profit £259.78
Total trades since July 26- Trades 45, won 9,lost 36, s/rate 20% profit £407.14

System 14- Back under 0.5 Half 2 goals ( Odds 2.70+)
Trades 5, won 2, lost 3, s/rate 40% profit £15.08
Total Trades since July 26- Trades 11, won 4,lost 7, s/rate 36.36% profit £16.24

@Adam thanks so much for the reply Adam, congratulations on the stunning new software.

@Richard-Futter easy money well done!

@Robert-Horton Possibly, I'm not sure if they have an integration for TPD. You may need to ask BFBM.

Tennis Trading for a 10-Year-Old Part 7: The Complete Trading Plan

Now let's put everything together.

Imagine you are learning to ride a bicycle.

You don't try tricks on day one.

You learn the basics first.

The article says the same thing.

Step 1

Choose a good match.

Look for:

✓ Similar skill levels

✓ Competitive match

✓ Good liquidity

✓ Chance of service breaks

Avoid:

✗ Huge favourites

✗ Very low odds favourites

✗ Poor liquidity

Step 2

Pick Only 2 or 3 Entry Points

Do not trade every score.

The article specifically recommends focusing on a few situations.

Examples:

15-15

15-30

0-30

Learn those first.

Become comfortable.

Master them.

Step 3

Enter The Trade

Place your back or lay position.

Before the next point starts.

Now wait.

Step 4

Watch The Next Point

This is important.

You are not predicting the whole match.

You are mostly trading the next point.

If the point goes your way:

Great.

Take profit.

Or continue if the next score creates another strong setup.

Step 5

Cut Losses Quickly

This is where beginners struggle.

The article repeats this idea many times.

If the point goes against you:

Exit.

Take the small loss.

Move on.

Do not hope.

Do not pray.

Do not argue with the market.

Just exit.

Step 6

Hedge

After the trade finishes:

Green up.

Lock in profit.

Reset.

Look for the next opportunity.

The Biggest Mistake Beginners Make

Beginners often think:

"I need to be right every time."

Wrong.

Professional traders know they will lose many trades.

The goal is:

Lose small.

Win bigger.

Repeat.

The Entire Strategy In One Paragraph

Find score situations where a break of serve might happen.

Enter trades where the possible profit is larger than the possible loss.

If the next point goes against you, exit immediately.

If it goes your way, take profit or continue when the next score creates even more pressure.

Repeat this process many times during the match while protecting your money with small losses and disciplined exits.

That is the entire strategy explained as simply as possible.

I have this problem with the French Open - no odds data in the stats

six winnings in a row - WOPS

Cheers

Daily Recap - Sunday 10 May 2026

Netherlands Eredivisie
Ajax v Utrecht
❌ Draw - lost | 4.30
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
✅ Draw - won | 3.95
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Groningen v Nijmegen
❌ Draw - lost | 3.80

Netherlands Eredivisie
Telstar v Heracles
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v Sparta Rotterdam
❌ FH Over 1.5 - lost

Germany Bundesliga
FC Koln v Heidenheim
❌ Draw - lost | 4.20

Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Saarbrucken
❌ Draw - lost | 4.40
✅ FH Over 1.5 - won

Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.

Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.

Formula is:

f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)

Where:

f = fraction of your bank roll to stake b = current available betting odds for selection p = true probability of winning

E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:

f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?