Martin's Tennis Trading Notes
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@louis-lamprell @Ryan-Carruthers do you still do your ones? I'm not as close with the tour as I would like to be at the moment. So many new players since this last post!
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Any chance of getting these tennis notes again @Martin-Futter ?
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ATP Marseille Indoor Hard Courts
Nicolas Mahut v Ilya Ivashka
Betfair odds: Mahut 1.66
Martin's odds: Mahut 1.5
Mahut playing at home has impressed this week beating rising start Stefanos Tsitsipas and big serving world No. 28 Gilles Muller
Mahut has only lost to Tsonga and Goffin on indoor hard this year winning his other 5 matches
Mahut is ranked 93 places above Ivashka
Ivashka is having a break out tournament but was aided by an injured Wawrinka withdrawing yesterday
Ivashka's highest non retirement win in the last year was against the world number 90 this week
Mahut should be a too much for Ivashka today, I have him as the value player here. There is a danger Ivashka continues his break out week if Mahut has an off day but if Mahut looks motivated then it is hard to bet against him here. I think the market has overreacted to Ivashka's win over an out of sorts injured Wawrinka. -
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
Tennis:
Bedene v Carreno-Busta
Bedene has been in great form winning 7 of his last 8 matches
Bedene leads the h2h 2-1 but all three matches have gone the distance
Carreno-Busta has been out of form recently compared with his world rank of 11
I expect a tight match here and given their trends would not be surprised to see it go the distance again. I especially like the lay first set winner if Bedene wins the first set but laying either player a set up makes sense at the odds. Make sure Bedene is not tired from last week's final.Another 3 set classic! Easy money
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Tennis:
Bedene v Carreno-Busta
Bedene has been in great form winning 7 of his last 8 matches
Bedene leads the h2h 2-1 but all three matches have gone the distance
Carreno-Busta has been out of form recently compared with his world rank of 11
I expect a tight match here and given their trends would not be surprised to see it go the distance again. I especially like the lay first set winner if Bedene wins the first set but laying either player a set up makes sense at the odds. Make sure Bedene is not tired from last week's final. -
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
ATP Tour
New York Final - Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson (Odds both around even money which I agree with)
Anderson has gone to 3 sets every match this week (3/3)
Querrey also went the distance yesterday v Mannarino
Two big servers not expecting much excitement
Head to head is fairly evenly split although Anderson did win their last 2 encounters
I would be surprised if we did not see a tie break here and if you can get 1.5+ on that somewhere then that is a value play. Lay first set winner looks in play here too, don't be too surprised to see a scoreline like 6-7 7-6 6-7, these guys clearly like winning the second set when losing the first.Couldn't have called that better! We even got the tie-break final set!
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Perfect again. Querrey wins first set. Big green on the Querrey lay as Anderson now leads the second set 3-0.
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ATP Tour
New York Final - Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson (Odds both around even money which I agree with)
Anderson has gone to 3 sets every match this week (3/3)
Querrey also went the distance yesterday v Mannarino
Two big servers not expecting much excitement
Head to head is fairly evenly split although Anderson did win their last 2 encounters
I would be surprised if we did not see a tie break here and if you can get 1.5+ on that somewhere then that is a value play. Lay first set winner looks in play here too, don't be too surprised to see a scoreline like 6-7 7-6 6-7, these guys clearly like winning the second set when losing the first. -
@damon-heslop said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
@damon-heslop said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
It's a shame that the stats software doesn't cover the New York ATP tournament. Tonight's semi-final between Anderson and Nishikori should be a cracker. Might just watch the first set and lay the winner if things are looking close.
Perfect. Nishikori writes off the first set, going down 6-1. Brushes himself off and duly leads the second set 4-1. Should be a nail-biting decider!
It might be because this tournament is new to the tour. @Adam-Williams will know why it doesn't show
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@damon-heslop said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
It's a shame that the stats software doesn't cover the New York ATP tournament. Tonight's semi-final between Anderson and Nishikori should be a cracker. Might just watch the first set and lay the winner if things are looking close.
Perfect. Nishikori writes off the first set, going down 6-1. Brushes himself off and duly leads the second set 4-1. Should be a nail-biting decider!
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It's a shame that the stats software doesn't cover the New York ATP tournament. Tonight's semi-final between Anderson and Nishikori should be a cracker. Might just watch the first set and lay the winner if things are looking close.
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Monfils butchered 2-zip. I was hoping to back Thiem above 1.7, but the drift never materialised...
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17th Feb
Nice green on the lay first set winner yesterday in the Mayer v Monfils match.
ATP Tour
Buenos Aires Semi-Final
Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils -
Thiem Betfair Odds - 1.52
Thiem Martin's odds - 1.33
Thiem leads the head to head 4-0 including once on clay
Thiem is one of the top players on clay and loves in in South America where he really broke through last year
Monfils blows hot and cold and is very inconsistent
Thiem is ranked 37 places ahead on Monfils as the world number 6 currently
Thiem is a beast on clay and if he is at the races today there is only one winner. The head to head is hard to ignore and Thiem is a much better player than when they last met a year ago. Monfils's career is on the decline and his lowly 43 world ranking confirms that, he can raise his game against the top players though and there is still some concern he can win here but at the current odds Thiem looks a value play. -
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
16th Feb
Buenos Aires Quarter-Finals:
4 Argentinians in the quarter-finals here, make a note of that for next year!
Mayer v Monfils
Betfair odds Mayer 2.8
Martin's odds Mayer 2.5Mayer now has a 7 match win streak on clay and is playing at home
Monfils may be settling into this South American clay now after two wins since losing to world number 117 last week.Lay first set winner looks a strong play here especially if it is Monfils (will be very low risk at short lay odds). Monfils loves a battle and can often create one where he could win easily. Mayer looks motivated after thrashing Fognini yesterday. If Monfils has an off day Mayer could win this easy but it is more likely that a battle ensues here.
Easy money! 1 set all
