@ryan-carruthers Yep makes perfect sense. All we you need to be able to do is forecast what you think SP is , unfortunately it won't teach you how to be a good trader as throughout the period leading up to KO, there are moves, mini drifts, manipulation etc, i don't see why we can't do something along these lines.
Football Trading
Afternoon update for April for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. Staking was £5.66 a trade
System 1 - Back the draw at K/o version B( Odds 3.50 +)
Trades 30
Won 9
Lost 21
S/Rate 30%
Profit £11.13
System 2- Injury Time goal ( last 5 matches version B)
Trades 40
Won 9
Lost 31
S/rate 22.25%
Profit £56.90
New trading bank for May was £634.63, with the 1% liability stakes of £6.34 stakes.
I have been paper trading lots of other systems and i am now in a position to start adding to my portfolio of stategies
Laying the home team at kick off odds 5.0-7.0 ( check h2h)
I have had 4 profitable months out of 5, this isn't a huge return but adds to the bank
results since December based on testing at £10 liability stakes
Trades 114, won 99, lost 15, s/rate 86.84% profit £59.88
Back Draw at k/o version Z ( this is based on h2h results and elo max of 100 between the two sides odds 3.0+) I have been recording since January, again based on £10 stakes
Trades 249
Won 89
Lost 160
S/rate 35.74%
Profit £496.92
Back u2.5 goals ft (1.70-2.30 odds + check h2h) , again paper trading this since January
Trades 171
Won 100
Lost 71
S/rate 58.48%
Profit £260.67
Finally Back under 1.5 goals ft version D ( 3-0-3.55 odds), this has been tested since January
Trades 371
Won 134
lost 237
s/rate 36.12%
Profit £528.85
@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
0.5 for the away started very badly with 3 successive losses while the next 3 won. It may well right itself but after Saturdays surprise capitulation by Plzen when the away team were 0.4 there is also every possibly chance that 0.5 and under is ruled out. At present 0.4 is the lowest loss but the sheer size of that loss also means nothing under 0.6 is actually profitable anymore as things stand.
b27269cf-fd6b-4d1c-a81a-f44b07679514-image.png
And no sooner than I say that but April starts with a 1-4 pounding in Columbia against a side with just 0.4 ave points. I am going to try and avoid a single change and look at this again for May to see if it justifies removing the low numbers which my feeling at the moment is gravitating towards.
After spending well over a year running in the wrong direction and telling myself that everytime I hit an obstacle all I needed to do was move it of the way I've been able to spot things before they go too far. Rather than carry on until I came to a cliff edge with with a broken rope bridge, a 1000ft drop and the promise of a hungry tiger to greet me should I make it to the other side I turned back early this time.
Although the filters had been less, they didn't alltogether make sense (thanks @Martin) and I could see that the data didn't appear to have legs. So...
Luckily enough I had started to track a similar thing for laying home (I'm working on other stuff as well for a small portfolio but this has a loooooong way to go).
I've just hit 200 selections, I have an 86% s/r, ave lay odds of 4.6 it's 100pts profit. To level stakes of £10 that's obviously £1,000.
I've been tracking since the back end of Feb and I'm almost at the stage where I don't expect to make any/certainly many more changes. I'm happy with my filters, they make sense to me, they are limited to either 1 criteria or a combination of 2 max.
There is no random exclusion of 1.9 points of 2.2 or something similar. Only at the top and the bottom end of the scale. Find the sweet spot!!
Another 100 selections and I'll share my findings.
Hi guys,
Are the Daily Email selections available to view on the forum or do I have to subscribe to the email
Cheers Jaffa
@Kurtis-Steven-Graham
Hey dude , I've changed alot since the first filter to narrow down too many selections, I'm currently testing and will reveal my finding very soon.
Are you struggling to find selections ?
@Simon-Bates Yes, have a look at the IMPORTDATA function. The formatting of the webpage will matter, but assuming it's in some kind of table, it should work OK.
Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.
@Zain-dharamshi-0 here is a video I made kind of a tutorial on a FHG strategy I made take a look:
@Vince-Kavanagh this is really interesting work, I've commented before on your ELO back away strategy, but a BTTS strategy is one really want to develop and use! I guess it goes back to my younger days of dropping into the local bookies on a Saturday morning and putting on a £2 goals galore coupon! Keep up the good work!
hi yes i had added another address
it was showing on site - that was the cause ?
ok thanks for fixing
rgds
peter
@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS hi, the filter is available to all members on the football stats. Click ‘My Saved Filters’ then ‘Member Filters’ then ‘Second Half Goal Example’.
@Tony-Hastie said in Exporting routines:
School run, actual run, Shower, export data, load bots, cook wife lunch, landscape garden(or look as though Im doing something useful), school run, after school clubs, cook dinner, get kids to bed, check results, monitor any football thats on for SHG or CS opportunities(or fiddle about with the horse racing software), go to bed, sleep. My life🤣
This is a fine example of just how much kids add work to life isn't it! Not even thinking cost either!
@Greg-Mitchell said in Red Cards and "Injury Time Goals" !!!:
So annoying!
But awesome if in your favour!!!!!
@Akiva-Anderson everything takes me longer than it should Akiva🤣
@andrew-page that's a great line!
@Lucian-Moldovan said in Difference and ratio:
@Martin Thank you that is helpful...basically the bigger the difference the better
yes spot on!
@Wayne-Thomas it might be to do with it being a rearranged fixture, I'll message @Adam
@John-passmoor I use stake as stake rather than liability, so if I am laying at 3.0 using a £2.50 stake my liability would be £7.50.
You could use it as liability instead.
What market are you betting on?
It will depend on your confidence on your strategy the approach you take and whether you use £2.50 or £5 stakes. £1k is deep enough to do it my way but it's your decision to make.