Here is your first task before the lesson next week:
What is one thing that you are better at now than when you first heard about Betfair trading?Comment your answers below!
Have 2 qualifiers today.
Chengdu Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 3.95
Frosinone Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 4.00
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Lets see how this one Pans out
Fri 26/04/2024 Selections.
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@John-Folan Sounds better than it is! I cover my arse a bit😁
Its not a true QOB. I have a bot set up to put a point on each, HDOB, DOB, TOB and QOB. If the horse HDOBs I lose 2.5 points, DOBs I lose .5 of a point. TOBs I gain 2.5 points and QOBs I gain 6.5 points
Here is your first task before the lesson next week:
What is one thing that you are better at now than when you first heard about Betfair trading?Comment your answers below!
@John-Folan nice will fire it up later
@brendan-gillen welcome mate! I did a video on chasing losses yesterday may be of help to you:
If you have lost that much money please be really careful before staking any real money (lots of thorough testing of strategies first) and make sure there is no addicition to gambling!
I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!
Player Matches Won >= 0
Category WTA-Singles
Scope Last 10 Matches
✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type
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In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.
You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.
PSG women 4.10 lay uder 0.5 fhg 2.48 back over 1.5 fhg stats 14-1 in favour of over 1.5 fhg
0-1 HT for scratch
Back for more on friday.
@John-Folan said in Horse Software Questions/Idea Thread:
That’s interesting that yours updates. BFBM’s doesn’t. Which is annoying and something I have raised with them. I wasn’t sure if yours used actual or predicted so thank you for clearing that up 😀
Yeah that's a shame as it's going to result in some discrepancies, but I definitely think we're on the right side of this one 🤣
one game tonight
20:00 Ajax v Excelsior
@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.
if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.
Works well any decent T20 league
Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss
been doing this for a while
@John-Folan Had this conversation with someone else who thought the same. I really like running in the rain though so couldnt see it myself. Im not a horse though I guess...
@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.
2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.
The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.
@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.
These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.
We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.
Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.
Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.
I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.
@Simon-Hardy interesting, not tried this but keep me updated with how you get on!
@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.
I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.
So while the P&L isn't great, mentally another good week. Have decided for the football, I seem to be better at finding value bets so will follow that philosophy for now rather than using specific strategies.
I have also created a framework for my manual horse bets in the horse racing software and found what I do should be profitable over the long term which is reassuring even if it can't be automated (think it might be but will take more research).
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